What are the Angels doing? The question remains pertinent, even after general manager Perry Minasian tried to provide an answer Monday, saying the team would not trade Shohei Ohtani this offseason.
At the deadline, during the offseason, at any time of year, really, fans should not treat pronouncements from baseball people as gospel. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said he would not trade Juan Soto on June 1, then traded him on Aug. 2. So, while Minasian’s statement seemingly was definitive, it’s entirely reasonable for a person to respond, “We’ll see.”
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Situations evolve. Circumstances change. A non-zero chance exists that Angels owner Arte Moreno will identify a buyer before the end of the offseason, if not finalize a sale. A non-zero chance also exists that the buyer could say to Moreno, “You be the bad guy. You trade Ohtani. We don’t want the negative publicity.”
More likely, the sale process will not advance that quickly, considering the expected number of bidders, the need to vet each group’s background and finances and, ahem, the potential $2.5 billion to $3 billion price tag. Any new owner also might want a crack at extending Ohtani, who is under contract for $30 million in 2023 before becoming a free agent at the end of the season.
Makes sense — the Angels are more valuable with Ohtani than without him. But does he even want to stay with the team long-term? At the end of the 2021 season, Ohtani said, “I want to win. That’s the biggest thing for me. I’ll leave it at that.” After the 2022 season, he told the AP during an interview in Japan, “I have a rather negative impression of this season,” the Angels’ fifth straight losing campaign with Ohtani, and seventh straight overall.
The Angels, as I reported in June, had informal discussions regarding an extension for Ohtani late in spring training. Club officials expressed an understanding that to sign Ohtani, they would need to award him a record average salary, surpassing Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million. It stands to reason the Angels since have revisited the matter. But clearly, little progress has been made.
So here the Angels go, compounding their initial mistake of holding Ohtani at the deadline. The Nationals were for sale then, and still are. Soto was perhaps the more valuable commodity, available for three pennant races to Ohtani’s two. But if the Angels had been proactive, they likely could have struck a return for Ohtani similar to what the Nationals got for Soto. Now, the return would be much less.
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Ohtani, a finalist for the American League MVP award, gets it.
“If I were the GM or owner, I judged the timing to trade me for the greatest return was this year,” Ohtani said in an interview recently published in the Japanese sports magazine Number. “If you take a long-view of the team, I think there were many options to trade me.”
Those options still exist, and maybe at some point Moreno, at the behest of a potential buyer, will shift course. The odds do not appear good, mind you. If a potential ownership group is ponying up $2.5 billion to $3 billion for the Angels, that group almost certainly would want the chance to shower Ohtani with hundreds of millions to demonstrate its intentions to the fan base.
Doesn’t mean Ohtani would accept, though. And then what would we be talking about? Just as the return for Ohtani now would be less than it was at the deadline, the return for him as a two- or three-month rental at next year’s deadline would be less than it is now.
The Angels’ choices, if they indeed open next season with Ohtani, will amount to a series of poor value propositions. Overpay him to persuade him to stay. Trade him for much less than he is worth. Lose him for draft-pick compensation in free agency.
Strike one, strike two, strike three.
Carlos Correa: Would the Dodgers do it?
Dodgers officials often have expressed concern their fans would not accept the addition of shortstop Carlos Correa, who is a free agent for the second straight year. Correa was part of the 2017 Astros team that, according to a finding by commissioner Rob Manfred, stole signs illegally throughout that postseason, and wound up defeating the Dodgers in the World Series.
Well, now things get interesting.
Correa, 28, not only is the youngest of the four big free-agent shortstops, but also should appeal to the Dodgers because the Astros extended a qualifying offer to him last season, making him ineligible to receive one a second time.
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Thus, the Dodgers could sign Correa without losing draft picks and international bonus pool money, as opposed to Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, both of whom are virtually certain to receive qualifying offers. The Dodgers also are likely to extend a qualifying offer to their incumbent shortstop, Trea Turner, making them eligible for a pick after the fourth round if he departs.
Correa probably will seek a longer contract than the Dodgers are willing to offer, but what if he would take the kind of short-term, high-dollar deal teams fancy to mitigate their risk? The guess here is that Dodgers fans might feel uncomfortable at first, but ultimately would welcome Correa as long as he performed at a high level.
Fans want to win. Even if it means embracing a player they previously despised.
Teams with starting pitchers sitting pretty
The term “starting-pitching surplus” is an oxymoron, but teams with at least a measure of depth are in good position to exploit clubs trying to add to their rotation. The free-agent market offers only so many quality options.
Eleven of Jim Bowden’s top 25 free agents are starting pitchers. But the group, featuring Jacob deGrom (No. 2), Justin Verlander (No. 3), Carlos Rodón (No. 7) and Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga (No. 10) is a bit top-heavy. The best guess is that Verlander will return to the Astros and Clayton Kershaw (No. 11) to the Dodgers. At least three others on Bowden’s list — Nathan Eovaldi (No. 13), Chris Bassitt (No. 14) and Tyler Anderson (No. 24) are candidates to receive, and accept, qualifying offers.
Thus, a number of starters, from the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes to the Marlins’ Pablo López to the Guardians’ Zach Plesac, are expected to be in play for trades. The Mariners have two such pitchers, Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said other teams are already calling on a number of his club’s pitchers.
“We’re getting hit constantly, up and down, with our bullpen, our starters,” Dipoto said. “We’re unlikely to be too aggressive in moving away from our bullpen. We want to add to it, not necessarily subtract from it.
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“With what might be some type of pitching surplus, we will if we can put that into play to answer other needs, even in part to try and fill some of the holes we have on our team right now, which are a middle infielder and potentially two corner outfielders.”
The Guardians, deep in both starters and middle infielders, seem almost certain to make moves. Plesac, projected by MLB Trade Rumors to earn $2.9 million in his first year of arbitration, would appear the initial odd man out. Shane Bieber, projected to earn $10.7 million in his second year of arbitration, might be more available come July or next offseason. Three Guardians prospects in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 — Daniel Espino (No. 15), Gavin Williams (No. 53) and Tanner Bibee (No. 99) — all could reach Triple A early in 2023.
The Rays, always open to creative trades, are in a different place, perhaps more reluctant than usual to even listen on starters. Corey Kluber is a free agent. Shane Baz will miss all of 2023, while recovering from Tommy John surgery. And Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen are not yet even eligible for arbitration.
“We’ve been ravaged by injuries the past couple of years. I think we’re kind of scarred by that,” Rays general manager Peter Bendix said. “You need more than five starters, right? You need more than seven or eight relievers. We know that, and especially in the division we’re in, you have to plan for a lot of guys to have an opportunity.”
Brewers re-shuffling?
The Brewers, under new general manager Matt Arnold, are virtually certain to be active, and not just with possible trades of right-handers Burnes (projected $11.4 million) and Adrian Houser ($3.6 million).
Arnold picked up second baseman Kolten Wong’s $10 million option Tuesday, but still could trade him to clear a spot for Brice Turang. He also could move right fielder Hunter Renfroe, who is projected to earn $11.2 million in his final year of arbitration before free agency. A number of the Brewers’ top prospects are outfielders.
Why move Burnes rather than Brandon Woodruff, who will earn roughly the same salary in 2023 and also has two years of club control remaining? The Brewers might believe they stand a chance of signing Woodruff to an extension. They also might believe that Burnes might never match his Cy Young season in 2021, while Woodruff still offers upside.
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World Series leftovers
• As Bob Holtzman reported in a video for MLB Players Media, ALCS and World Series MVP Jeremy Peña includes three hashtags in Spanish when he tweets: #diosconmigo, #consangre and #tormenta.
Diosconmigo — “God with me” — is self-explanatory. Consangre means “with blood,” but Peña says the meaning behind it is, “leave blood on the field.” Tormenta, meanwhile, means “storm,” and is an old family joke. Peña’s father, former major leaguer Geronimo Peña, gave him that nickname when he was little. Jeremy was a bit unruly as a child, like a storm.
• Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm improved defensively under infield coach Bobby Dickerson this season by becoming more aggressive, not afraid to fail. Dickerson recalled some great advice he received as a player from Jerry Narron, his manager at Double A in 1991: “Show me what you can do, not what you can’t.”
Those words resonated with Dickerson — he was trying so hard not to make mistakes, he ended up making them even more often. Bohm, Dickerson said, did a good job dealing with that particular demon. His mindset: “If I’m not going to succeed, I’m going to let it all hang out.”
• Astros closer Ryan Pressly said the amount of preparation catcher Martín Maldonado puts into a game is, “bar none better than anyone I’ve seen in baseball.”
On a late-night flight, Pressly said, the entire plane might be completely dark except for where Maldonado is sitting. He will be poring over scouting reports, going over hitters, taking notes, knowing he is catching the next night. Maldonado said he learned the value of preparation in the early 2010s from his former Brewers pitching coach, Rick Kranitz, and teammate, Jonathan Lucroy.
• Phillies right fielder Nick Castellanos made an interesting point, saying the postseason experience of Rob Thomson and several of his coaches makes a huge difference for a team with so many playoff newcomers.
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Thomson went to the playoffs numerous times as a coach for 10 years with the Yankees, and was part of a World Series champion in 2009. Kevin Long is the first hitting coach to make a series with four different clubs. And Dickerson previously went to the playoffs with the Orioles and Padres. Castellanos said if coaches are tight, the players pick up on their insecurity. Thomson and Co., instead, were a stabilizing influence.
• When the Astros signed Hector Neris as a free agent last offseason, they valued him for his durability — he leads all pitchers in appearances since 2016. What they perhaps did not anticipate was the contribution Neris would make off the field.
In spring training, just after the lockout ended, Neris rented a room in a private restaurant so he could take 80 of the Astros’ Latin minor leaguers out to dinner. He talked to them that night about how to carry themselves, how to be a professional. Astros officials knew then that his makeup was special, too.
Around the horn
Information from team and league sources:
• The A’s are under no financial pressure to trade catcher Sean Murphy, who is projected to earn $3.5 million in his first year of arbitration. In something of a man-bites-dog development, the team actually plans to increase its payroll, if only because it cannot reasonably go any lower than its current $35 million.
A trade of Murphy, however, still appears likely, and for the right reasons.
The A’s can turn Murphy into multiple pieces, and they’re deep at catcher, starting with Shea Langeliers, the centerpiece of the Matt Olson trade. Their first-round picks in 2020, Tyler Soderstrom, and 2022, Daniel Susac, also were catchers. MLBPipeline rated Soderstrom the team’s No. 1 prospect (though acknowledging he eventually might move to first base), and Susac, the younger brother of former major-league catcher Andrew Susac, the No. 4.
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• The Diamondbacks do not plan to trade Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly, but Madison Bumgarner could be a possibility once the big free-agent starters are off the board and his remaining salaries perhaps seem less excessive.
Bumgarner, 33, is owed a combined $37 million over the next two seasons. To trade him, the Diamondbacks almost certainly would need to pay down some of his salary and/or accept another inflated contract in return. Bumgarner had a 3.83 ERA over 19 starts in the first half last season, but a 6.50 ERA over 11 starts in the second.
His contract allows him to block trades only to five clubs.
(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
