Tyler Anderson was in that spot, wearing that uniform, for that moment. This was a goal from the second he signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Dodgers in March, with no guarantee of a chance to start nor for any job security beyond this bet on himself.
The wager would put him on the mound on a rainy night at Petco Park as the man the Dodgers entrusted to save their season against the Padres. Five scoreless innings later, he handed off the baseball with the Dodgers still alive and his breakout season cemented.
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“I mean, I could have gone five more, who knows?” he’d say after.
The collapse that followed his exit ended the Dodgers’ season after a franchise-record 111 regular-season wins. It also closed the book on a campaign that thrust Anderson into much firmer footing as he enters free agency this winter.
The 32-year-old left-hander’s fastidious nature and competitiveness drew rave reviews during his first season in Los Angeles as he paced the Dodgers in innings pitched despite starting the season in the bullpen. His retooled changeup and access to Dodgers game-planning sparked a transformation in which Anderson posted a career-best 2.57 ERA while being one of the best in baseball at limiting hard contact.
It’ll make him one of the most intriguing options on the market for starting pitchers, as well as a likely candidate to receive a one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer for 2023.
That decision, on Anderson’s end, could be an interesting one. While the expectation is that Anderson will be able to receive multiyear offers elsewhere, the lack of extreme high-end swing-and-miss might make getting an average annual value above the qualifying offer difficult.
Take Tim Britton’s most recent round of projections for starting pitcher deals, for example, which pegs Anderson at three years, $54 million. The $18 million AAV is quite close and bullish, but a qualifying offer would be similar to the bet he made on himself in 2022: He could try to elevate that market again.
The Dodgers’ need
For as bullish as the Dodgers may be on young starters Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, they have holes to fill in a rotation that, at present, has only three spots (Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May) locked down for next year. Clayton Kershaw seems likely to return but is still technically a free agent. Andrew Heaney is also on the open market.
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The Dodgers could be active in trades, potentially pursuing a deal for Miami’s Pablo López, much as they did at the trade deadline.
But bringing back Anderson, particularly on a one-year qualifying offer, allows them some security while some of their young arms get their feet under them at the big-league level.
The Dodgers’ strength in recent years has come from a staff deep enough to withstand multiple injuries, so having an innings-eater like Anderson becomes paramount.
The market
It’s competitive, and there are top-end options out there. The Dodgers expressed some interest in signing Carlos Rodón last spring before he went out and proved his dominance in 2021 was sustainable. He was elite with the Giants and is primed for a big payday — Britton’s projection was somewhere in the neighborhood of five years and $160 million.
Jacob deGrom may earn even more on an annual rate, though there is reasonable cause for concern with his health. Justin Verlander is coming off a Cy Young-worthy return from Tommy John surgery and appears to be as good as ever coming into his age-40 season. Maybe the Dodgers look to get creative with either of them on a shorter-term deal, which fits their previous preference in approaching high-end arms in free agency.
The Dodgers could also look to find another Anderson or Heaney — a starter who wasn’t maximized elsewhere and could see an uptick with help from the team’s development system. Sean Manaea and Wade Miley are coming off disappointing seasons, and Corey Kluber and Michael Wacha are the types of names well-regarded organizations have pursued in the recent past.
Other teams that might be interested
Innings are still very valuable, and every team needs them. Anderson should have a very diverse market this winter should he get to free agency, likely with several suitors willing to go multiple years for his services. His previous willingness to pitch in relief for a contender could open possibilities for a team to view him as a swingman, much as the Dodgers did when signing him. Wherever he lands, he’ll at worst slide into the middle of a strong rotation, if not being at the top of it.
(Photo: Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
