Commanders predictions: Carson Wentz as QB1, Chase Young’s production and more

Imagine being tasked with making predictions about this franchise.

That’s the assignment here. Specifically: What’s to come over the second half of the season for the Washington Commanders? Let’s dive in.

Carson Wentz will reclaim QB1 role once healthy

Ron Rivera sent two Day 2 selections to the Colts in March and took on Wentz’s entire contract for a reason. He knew this team needed more at the sport’s most important position. Whether Wentz was the right choice — early returns say no, though several veteran quarterbacks around the league have struggled with their new teams — Rivera’s broad assessment had merit.

Taylor Heinicke might be the better option for a given game considering his mobility and Washington’s pass protection concerns. The team is 9-9 in his 18 regular-season starts over the past two seasons. Heinicke is also a savant with offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s scheme.

But there’s no pretending Heincke is more than a solid backup capable of starting when needed. Go back and watch the 20-17 loss to Minnesota for a refresher on the lack of size, arm strength and good decision-making.

GO DEEPER

Cult hero Taylor Heinicke falls off the high wire in Commanders' collapse vs. Vikings

Wentz is a different kind of roller coaster. The 6-foot-5 passer offers greater big-play potential thanks to his arm talent, but his pocket presence is deficient, leading to more sacks and stalled drives. Washington ranked 29th in points per drive (1.35) and 28th in EPA/drive during Wentz’s six starts. Since Heinicke took over in Week 7, the Commanders rank 22nd (1.68) and 23rd, respectively.

That inefficiency is hardly ideal, but it’s familiar territory with Wentz, now on his third team in three seasons. He’s also Rivera’s third Week 1 quarterback in three seasons. The man in charge desperately wants to avoid going 4 for 4.

Ron Rivera to @TheAthletic on whether the 70% snaps clause in Carson Wentz's contract would affect future decisions: “It shouldn’t have to. … We’ll see. I don’t want to bench a guy and not play a guy just because of something … we put in the contract." https://t.co/mwyTmmIrMw

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) October 25, 2022

Rivera already determined once that Heinicke, a 2023 free agent, wasn’t the answer. That stance isn’t changing. Fifth-round pick Sam Howell won’t start until Washington falls out of the playoff picture, if then, or the staff determines playing Wentz more than 70 percent of the offense’s overall snaps isn’t worth surrendering a 2023 second-round pick. Regardless, the odds of a Day 3 selection becoming a starter are slim.

There may be no salvaging Wentz, but maybe he shows enough over the final two months to justify keeping him. Otherwise, Rivera has to explain, perhaps to a new owner, what went wrong. Even if the Commanders scratch together enough wins with Heinicke, the team will be searching for a new starter again next offseason. However unlikely, figuring out a winning formula with Wentz is the best of both worlds.

Benjamin St-Juste will eliminate starting CB from Washington’s needs list

The Commanders do not typically have their corners travel with an opposing wideout. Yet last week, the coaching staff chose the second-year player to follow one of the league’s elite receivers, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson.

“For the most part, it was the design,” Rivera said. “It was to try and match up (St-Juste) on him.”

We can count the number of corners in the league capable of blanketing Jefferson throughout a game. According to Pro Football Focus, he caught three passes — on five targets — for 73 yards and a touchdown against St-Juste. But St-Juste had great coverage on the touchdown, and he also made plays of his own.

What a play by the defense‼️

📺 #MINvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/e2m4tcwQxe

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 6, 2022

He deflected a pass in the end zone near the end of the first half that landed in the hands of cornerback Danny Johnson for an interception. St-Juste later grabbed his own interception, turning it into a pick six, only for the officials to call him for pass interference. Hand-fighting went both ways and, therefore, could have been ignored.

That the coaches tasked St-Juste with covering Jefferson over and over stands out.

“Jefferson’s a special player, and we felt pretty good about Benjamin’s opportunities,” Rivera said. “He made a couple of plays that helped us. … We feel comfortable and pretty good about him.”

Washington didn’t trade William Jackson III before the Nov. 1 deadline because of St-Juste. Yet Sunday’s plan showed more trust in the 2021 third-round selection than the team often displayed in the high-profile 2021 free-agent signing.

St-Juste began the season in the slot and handled the adjustment adroitly, but his 6-foot-3 frame is better deployed outside. Kendall Fuller remains Washington’s best all-around cornerback. He’s also a potential salary-cap casualty this offseason.

Should that happen, the Commanders will need another starter. Otherwise, they’ll have a solid pair to tangle with the Jeffersons of the world.

Chase Young will finish the season with more questions than answers

Daron Payne is one of four NFL players with at least 5.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss this season — and he might not even be the best defensive tackle on his team. Jonathan Allen, a 2021 Pro Bowl selection, has 4.5 sacks and 11 TFLs. Meanwhile, edge rusher Montez Sweat leads all defensive players with 16 QB hits, per PFF. (The NFL’s official stats have Sweat second at 19, tied with Matt Judon and one behind Nick Bosa). Washington’s run defense also ranks second in DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

All of this is happening without Young. Washington’s defense would be terrifying now and in the future if the second selection in the 2020 NFL Draft matches his teammates’ performances while maintaining needed discipline.

Young is on the verge of being activated from the physically unable to perform list nearly one year after suffering a significant knee injury. The future is where things get tricky.

GO DEEPER

Commanders' Young 'felt real good' in first practice

Keeping the four first-round picks long term would become very expensive, limiting salary-cap resources for a market-price quarterback. This is why Payne entered this season without an extension despite playing in the final year of his rookie deal.

He’s shined enough to justify a contract in the range of Allen’s four-year, $72 million extension signed before last year. Sweat’s turn at a massive payday comes this offseason. Then Young. Considering his popularity and potential, keeping the hometown kid beyond his rookie deal seemed like a formality. It still might be, especially if he flashes his 2020 defensive rookie of the year form.

But Young’s play dipped in 2021 even before suffering an ACL tear and patella damage. His pass-rushing technique needed refinement to pair with his impressive athleticism. Young admitted recently he hasn’t had time to hone those skills as desired while recovering from his knee injury.

Will we see an improved version of Young? Realistically, that’s unlikely, leaving Washington to play a guessing game. In an ideal world, Young would pop and the team would enter this situation from a position of strength. But if, at season’s end, he’s viewed as the fourth best among the first-round picks, letting Payne walk or trading Sweat would become a much thornier debate.

Coaches will turn to younger tight ends

Every tight end, other than Armani Rogers, has missed time since training camp with injuries. Not a day or two, but weeks in some instances. Fifth-round pick Cole Turner sat out the past two games with concussion symptoms.

The group has provided little production, even with a tight end-friendly QB in Wentz. Here’s where Washington’s tight ends rank in various offensive stats this season, per TruMedia:

• Routes: 366 (11th)
• Targets: 53 (22nd)
• Receptions: 31 (26th)
• Catch rate: 58.5 percent (30th)
• Receiving yards: 277 (29th)
• YAC per reception: 4.94 (16th)
• Touchdown receptions: 1 (T-25th)
• First-down receptions: 14 (30th)

Injuries play a factor, but these paltry numbers are no one-off. They’re right in line with numbers at the position since Rivera arrived.

Logan Thomas became one of Washington’s best signings in 2020, and he signed a three-year, $24.065 million contract extension the following August that runs through 2024. But he’s played only 12 of the last 26 games due to injury, and his production has slipped. Whether or not injuries are a factor, Thomas enters Week 10 with 13 receptions and one touchdown. He is averaging 0.66 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus, 43rd among 44 qualified tight ends.

Second-year player John Bates looks like a consummate backup but offers help as a blocker, which is needed considering the offensive line’s struggles in pass protection. Though a willing blocker, Thomas is 41st out of 44 tight ends in PFF’s grades.

Turner, a former wide receiver, has only two receptions but generated ample buzz this offseason.

After transitioning from college quarterback, Rogers has five receptions on six targets, averaging 12.8 yards. Washington called for a jet sweep on a third-and-1 play against Minnesota, and Rogers, who had a 99-yard run for the University of Ohio, gained 24 yards.

Whether Bates, Turner and Rogers represent Washington’s TE future, Thomas likely does not, barring a significant turnaround. He counts for $8.75 million on the 2023 salary cap, with only a $3.5 million dead-money hit if he’s released.

Final record

Football Outsiders has Washington with the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. Facing the league’s only undefeated team doesn’t help the math. Of the remaining seven opponents — the Commanders play the overachieving Giants twice — only the Texans (1-6) and Browns (3-5) have a worse record, though Cleveland is 11th in overall DVOA. Washington is 24th, five slots behind New York.

Here’s the best guess: With Terry McLaurin establishing a career high in receiving yards (1,207?), Payne matching Allen’s nine sacks from last season, and linebacker Jamin Davis no longer tagged with the “bust” label, Washington will win three more games to finish 7-10, again. The Commanders rarely lose big, and Rivera will keep the team engaged. Enough to scare foes and fall outside the top-10 draft picks.

(Photo of Carson Wentz and Sam Howell: Max Gersh / Indy Star-USA Today)