The first nine weeks of the 2022 NFL season have come and gone and only one thing is for sure: No one knows with certainty what will happen next. But The Athletic’s beat writers challenge that notion, providing predictions for every NFL team as the second half of the season kicks off.
Arizona Cardinals
This will be Kliff Kingsbury’s last season: The first “Hard Knocks” in-season episode featuring the Cardinals recently aired. The theme was frustration. You could see it with Kyler Murray. You could see it with DeAndre Hopkins. You could see it with Budda Baker. It looked like a team that’s losing confidence in organizational direction. The defense has played fine, but the offense has struggled. The same issues surface: Miscommunication, pre-snap penalties, dropped passes. Perhaps worse, Murray, signed in July to a lucrative five-year extension, isn’t getting better. This falls on Kingsbury, hired in 2019 for his offensive brilliance. — Doug Haller
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Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons will make the playoffs: In the NFC South, that means winning the division. So, what will it take? Five wins in the final eight games should do it. That seems like a lot for a team as inconsistent as Atlanta, but the Falcons play only one more team that currently has a winning record (the Ravens). The Falcons have the NFL’s second-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.com, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans each has to play three more teams that currently have a winning record. It likely will come down to the Falcons’ season finale on Jan. 8, at home against Tom Brady and the Bucs. — Josh Kendall | Read more Falcons predictions
Baltimore Ravens
It may take a while, but general manager Eric DeCosta will extend Roquan Smith: The Ravens want to keep Smith around long term. They already saw how he elevated the rest of the defense in his debut. The hope will be that the Ravens win big and Smith, who has never been part of a playoff victory in his career, develops a strong rapport with teammates and coaches and falls in love with Baltimore’s culture. That’s what happened when the Ravens acquired cornerback Marcus Peters before the 2019 trade deadline and extended the pending free agent a couple of months later. — Jeff Zrebiec | Read more Ravens predictions
Buffalo Bills
Case Keenum wins at least one game as the starting QB: This one is topical, considering Josh Allen’s injury, but the roster’s overall talent doesn’t get as much credit as it deserves. The Bills have constructed a nearly complete 53-man roster without many weaknesses in their starting lineup, and that depth of talent has contributed to the Bills’ impressive start to 2022. It also gets masked by the play of Allen. Most games, he does something remarkable to put the attention on himself rather than the team. But the defense, when it is motivated and playing to its full capacity, can steal a game. — Joe Buscaglia | Read more Bills predictions
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers will get a top-3 pick: Based on reader comments, many (most?) fans have already turned the page on this season and — to borrow a Bill Belichick phrase — are “on to Indianapolis.” That’s the site of the NFL combine, where all eyes will be on a star-studded quarterback group led by Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis. It’s shaping up to be a three-team battle for the No. 1 spot among Houston, Carolina and Detroit. The Texans and Lions almost certainly will be taking a quarterback, potentially making the Panthers’ Christmas Eve home game against the Lions an epic clash in terms of draft positioning. — Joe Person | Read more Panthers predictions
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Chicago Bears
Justin Fields will finish top 10 in rushing yards — among all players: Entering Week 10, Bears quarterback Justin Fields ranks 11th in rushing yards in the NFL, trailing Vikings running back Dalvin Cook 608 yards to 602. But Fields also has 40 fewer carries than Cook. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback in the top 10 (635 yards on 86 attempts). The recent addition of more designed runs in the Bears’ offense (read option, sweeps, draws and more) make this an attainable “bold prediction” for Fields. Then there are the scrambles: Fields leads the NFL with 46 for an average of 9.8 yards gained. — Adam Jahns | Read more Bears predictions
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Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow will break his own, others’ records: The passer-rating record Joe Burrow set last year with 108.3 might be too lofty of a goal, but he’ll top the other franchise marks he set during the 2021 season (4,611 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes). The explosive plays haven’t been as prevalent this season, but Burrow’s play overall has been better. He only gets better when the games get bigger, and each of the final eight on the schedule will be huge for the team. In addition to the records he already holds, he’ll get at least one more — Carson Palmer’s mark of 373 completions feels as though it’s the most likely to fall. Burrow already has 233 completions, which puts him on pace for 440, which would smash the record. Burrow also is sitting at an even 70 in completion percentage, just a tick below the 70.55 Ken Anderson posted in 1982. — Jay Morrison | Read more Bengals predictions
Cleveland Browns
A three-game win streak in Weeks 12-14 will make December interesting: I can’t officially predict a Browns win this week at Miami, but I certainly expect them to play well. I have no idea what happens next week in Buffalo, with Bills QB Josh Allen dealing with an injury. But I think the Browns spice things up by winning an ugly one at home against the Bucs to finish November, a close one in Houston in Deshaun Watson’s debut, then a wild one at Cincinnati on Dec. 11. I don’t know if the Browns-Ravens Week 15 matchup will be for the division, but I am predicting the Browns play well enough in the run-up to make it one of their biggest games in years. — Zac Jackson | Read more Browns predictions
Dallas Cowboys
Odell Beckham Jr., will sign with the Cowboys: I’m not sure exactly when it will be, but sometime in the next few weeks, Beckham will pick Dallas. From the front office to the coaching staff to the players, it seems pretty clear that the Cowboys are interested in his services. The receiving corps needs the boost, and he seems interested in the possibility of continuing his career in Texas. “He’s a guy you want on your team,” Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons said. “I think he’s a great dude. I think he could add good value to the team and help us do what we want to do.” — Jon Machota | Read more Cowboys predictions
Denver Broncos
Russell Wilson throws 15 TDs over the final nine games: The six touchdown passes Wilson threw in his first seven starts were the fewest of his career over that stretch of a season. Though he’s thrown some impressive deep balls for scores, no quarterback makes his entire living that way. Wilson’s low touchdown total was directly tied to the Broncos’ inefficient red-zone operation. I’m predicting improvement in that area of the field, which also means an uptick in production for Wilson, who has averaged 16.7 touchdown throws across the season’s final nine games during the first 10 years of his career. — Nick Kosmider | Read more Broncos predictions
Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown will top 1,000 yards and 100 receptions: After a hot start out of the gate, an ankle injury and a concussion have limited St. Brown’s snaps and prevented him from taking a true second-year leap. But, now that he’s back and healthy, he could pick up where he left off. St. Brown needs 61 catches for 601 yards over the final nine games to hit both marks. He’s the most reliable target the Lions have right now. T.J. Hockenson is gone; DJ Chark is on IR; Josh Reynolds is dealing with a back injury; D’Andre Swift is on a pitch count. St. Brown has a great rapport with Jared Goff and has proven capable of delivering. — Colton Pouncy | Read more Lions predictions
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Green Bay Packers
The Packers will land the No. 6 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft: The Packers will finish 5-12, with their only remaining wins coming against the Bears in Chicago (Week 13) and the Lions in Green Bay (Week 18). They’ll lose to the Cowboys, Titans, Eagles, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings. That should be bad enough to draw a top-six pick. If the good teams on their docket remain good, the Packers’ superior strength of schedule won’t help them in any tiebreakers. As bad as the Packers are, there are a lot of bad teams in the league, which is why Green Bay currently holds the No. 10 pick in the draft. At least five will finish lower than the Packers, with the Texans, Panthers and Lions (yes, I know what happened last Sunday) as the three teams certain to pick in the top five. — Matt Schneidman | Read more Packers predictions
Houston Texans
Davis Mills will start his final game for the Texans: There’s been no indication Mills’ starting job is in jeopardy this season, but the second-year QB has done little to cement his status for 2023 and beyond. By most metrics, Mills has been worse this year than he was as a rookie, despite the Texans having a much-improved running game and a healthy Laremy Tunsil at left tackle. In got-to-have-it moments, Mills has been at his worst: He ranks 24th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback during quarters one to three, and last in the fourth quarter and overtime. At 1-6-1, the Texans should be in position to draft his replacement this offseason. — Aaron Reiss
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor won’t rush for 1,000 yards this season: Taylor was a hot commodity in fantasy football after winning the NFL’s rushing title last year with 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns. But a weak offensive line and nagging right ankle injury have limited him to 107 carries for 462 yards in 2022. The third-year running back, who’s missed three games, has just one rushing touchdown and one 100-yard game and both came in Week 1. Taylor, if healthy, is still capable of being one of the league’s most explosive players. However, since Indianapolis is on a downward spiral and headed toward a likely top-10 pick, I expect Taylor to remain sidelined until his ankle is fully healed. — James Boyd | Read more Colts predictions
Jacksonville Jaguars
While taking a step forward, the Jaguars will draft in the top 10 for the fifth consecutive year: A five-game losing streak took the wind out of the Jaguars’ sails after a 2-1 start. And, while they’re only two games back of a first-place Titans team that they still play twice, the schedule doesn’t help them out. Jacksonville’s next two are against the Chiefs and the Ravens, and it still faces the Cowboys and the Jets. That could have fans wondering again if they want wins in December or a higher draft pick. It feels like a 6-11 season in the end. — Greg Auman
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes will win the NFL MVP award: Granted, he’s the current frontrunner to win the league’s most prestigious individual award, but there’s a lot of football left. Entering Week 10, Mahomes leads the league in passing yards (2,605) and touchdowns (21), despite having played one fewer game than many quarterbacks. Continuing such production should propel Mahomes to his second MVP award, in just his sixth year. — Nate Taylor | Read more Chiefs predictions
Las Vegas Raiders
The Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels regime will remain intact: There will be calls for both of their jobs if this season continues to go down the tube, but it just doesn’t seem very practical to make changes at either spot. Not only is it difficult to build something with the sort of organizational turnover the Raiders have had as of late, it’s also expensive. Owner Mark Davis has already had to pay out settlements to Marc Badain, Dan Ventrelle, Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock. It’s also pretty unrealistic to expect a regime to reconstruct a team in its image in just one offseason. — Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur | Read more Raiders predictions
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers will finish as a top-10 offense: Through nine weeks, the Chargers’ offense has not been anything close to elite. They are 20th in offensive DVOA. Last season, they finished fourth. The running game has been a big issue, as has losing Rashawn Slater to injury. The Chargers are also not getting good enough blocking from their tight ends, and the passing offense has also dropped off significantly in third-down efficiency. Still, I firmly believe that they are going to find their rhythm, particularly in the passing game. Justin Herbert is finally looking like a healthy version of himself, after suffering that rib injury in Week 2. A better, more efficient and more explosive Herbert will lift this offense back to being an above-average unit. — Daniel Popper | Read more Chargers predictions
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Los Angeles Rams
The Rams will find their way to a wild-card spot: The Rams will win six of their final nine games, and that (astoundingly) will snag them a wild-card berth and put them a mere sliver above .500. Because their offensive line is getting healthy head into the backstretch of the season, because they’ve finally worked out the issue between head coach Sean McVay and running back Cam Akers, because receiver Van Jefferson has to get his legs (and hands) back under him at some point, there’s no way a McVay-led team misses the playoffs, right? … Right? — Jourdan Rodrigue | Read more Rams predictions
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins will reach the playoffs for the first time in six years: Building off a strong 6-3 start, the Dolphins will make the postseason for just the second time since 2008. It might very well come down to Week 18 at home against the Jets, though, and Miami needs to take care of lighter fare, such as the Browns and Texans in its next two. There’s a nasty three-week stretch (at 49ers, at Chargers, at Bills) in Weeks 13 through 15, when even one win out of three might be a good showing. But, especially with the Dolphins’ upgrades, there’s a path to 10-7 and a return to the postseason. — Greg Auman
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson will top 2,000 receiving yards: Before the season began, Jefferson said he wanted to become the first wide receiver in NFL history to reach 2,000 yards in a season. Through eight games, he is second in the league with 867 receiving yards, which puts him on pace for about 1,842. Why might 2,000 still be possible? In the five games since the Lions limited Jefferson to 14 yards on three catches, Jefferson is averaging 124.2 yards per game. If he can average 124.2 yards per game for the rest of the season, that would put him at a 1,985-yard pace. — Alec Lewis | Read more Vikings predictions
New England Patriots
This will be WR Jakobi Meyers’ final season in New England: The market for wide receivers has exploded, and this year’s crop of free agents at the position is nothing special. Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the top receivers set to become free agents in March. That could lead to a massive offer for Meyers, one the Patriots may not be willing to match. If the Patriots don’t extend him soon, Meyers, who turns 26 this week, could be in line to get Christian Kirk-level money (four years, $72 million) in free agency. The Patriots may not be able to match his highest offer, since they have needs at so many other positions. — Chad Graff | Read more Patriots predictions
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will finish with their worst record since 2005: The Saints never dipped below 7-9 during the entire Sean Payton era. (This includes a 7-9 record when New Orleans played without Payton due to the bounty scandal, with Joe Vitt and Aaron Kromer serving as head coaches at points during that season.) There’s really very little reason for optimism with the Saints moving forward: Too many injuries across the board; poor offensive output; erratic quarterback play; a sluggish defense. The team looks uninspired. None of this is a good sign for first-year coach Dennis Allen, and — insult to injury — the Eagles own the Saints’ 2023 first-round pick. I don’t think the Saints plummet to 3-13 like in 2005, a lost season in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, but I can’t envision this team reaching seven wins. – Larry Holder
New York Giants
Giants win a wild-card spot and make their first playoff appearance since 2016: It’s not inconceivable we’re looking at an 8-2 Giants squad by Thanksgiving. With the Texans (1-6-1) and Lions (2-6) the next two weeks, the Giants should have it easy. From there, things get tougher, thanks to five games left with their NFC East foes — the Giants still have two against the Eagles (8-0), one more against the Cowboys (6-2) and two against the not-terrible Commanders (4-5). New York also has a tough game with the 7-1 Vikings, but they will get a New Year’s Day date with the Colts, who could be thinking about next year at that point. So, the Giants will finish the season at 11-6, earn a wild-card berth and give the Vikings a run for their money in a playoff trip to Minnesota, before ultimately coming up short. — Charlotte Carroll | Read more Giants predictions
New York Jets
The Jets will make the playoffs: The Jets haven’t been to the postseason since 2010, and few cupcakes remain on the schedule. But our Austin Mock projects them to reach nine wins, with a 46.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Jets get a rematch with the Patriots on the road in Week 11. In Week 12, they host the Bears, who are no longer a pushover with quarterback Justin Fields thriving. Back-to-back road games against the Vikings and Bills won’t be easy. Back-to-back home games against the Lions and Jaguars should be wins. And then, the season ends with challenging games at Seattle and Miami. Every team that won at least 10 games last year made the playoffs, so consider that the line of demarcation. — Zack Rosenblatt | Read more Jets predictions
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Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts sets the franchise record for total touchdowns in a season: Hurts has 12 passing and six rushing touchdowns through the team’s first eight games. That puts him on pace to break the franchise record for total touchdowns in a season, as he follows a long line of dual-threat quarterbacks — Randall Cunningham’s 35 TDs in 1990 (30 passing, five rushing) is the mark to beat. Hurts has an extra game on the schedule in his favor, but let’s go ahead and say he gets it done in Week 17, before the team’s starters potentially rest in Week 18. — Bo Wulf | Read more Eagles predictions
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris will reestablish himself as a top RB: Has there been anybody in Pittsburgh not named Matt Canada who has taken more heat than Harris over the first half of the season? Harris’ numbers aren’t great, his vision isn’t spot on, and his health hasn’t been good. We can all acknowledge that. But to go as far as saying that he’s a bust who will never amount to anything and should be benched for Jaylen Warren is out of bounds. Harris is 34th in the league in rushing and has only 18 more yards rushing than Taysom Hill, but he’s getting healthier and the line is getting better. Plus, the more Kenny Pickett plays, the better Harris will be. He has plenty of talent. You don’t just lose it that quickly. — Mark Kaboly | Read more Steelers predictions
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers will go undefeated in the NFC West: The last 49ers’ NFC West title came in 2019, and that journey had to go through Seattle with an epic December finish. The stars might be aligning for a similar stretch run this season. The 49ers have dominated the NFC West so far this season. They’re 3-0 in divisional games (two wins over the Rams, one over Seattle), with an 82-30 combined victory margin. We’ll see how the 49ers stack up against Arizona in Mexico City later this month, as the Cardinals have given the 49ers problems recently. But the 49ers’ trend of beating up on NFC West competition should continue. — David Lombardi and Matt Barrows | Read more 49ers predictions
Seattle Seahawks
Uchenna Nwosu will make his first Pro Bowl: Nwosu leads the Seahawks with seven sacks, 15 QB hits and 35 pressures. He would need to play like a top-three outside linebacker in the NFC to earn his first Pro Bowl nod and, so far, he has. As a pass rusher, Nwosu has been almost as good as anyone. Among OLBs, only Za’Darius Smith (8.5 sacks) and Micah Parsons (8.0 sacks) have more sacks or QB hits than Nwosu (7.0 and 15, respectively). Only Smith, Parsons and Rashan Gary (who’s now out for the season) have more pressures. If Nwosu gets double-digit sacks and the Seahawks make the playoffs, that should be enough. —Michael-Shawn Dugar | Read more Seahawks predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs will win the NFC South title: This wouldn’t have felt like a bold statement at all back in August. But Tampa Bay has played poorly enough for long enough, losing five out of six games in one stretch, that fans weren’t sure what they had. The Bucs have beaten their two closest challengers in the Falcons and Saints, so they need only outpace those two over the remaining eight games to have back-to-back division titles for the first time in franchise history. To go 6-2 the rest of the way, the Bucs will need to stay healthy and be much more consistent than they have been of late, and they’ll also need to score more touchdowns instead of settling for field goals on offense. If they keep the current defensive personnel healthy and get the offense halfway to last year’s production, they can finish 10-7 and enter the playoffs with a decent head of steam — like they did two years ago on the way to the Super Bowl. — Greg Auman | Read more Bucs predictions
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry will come up just short of 2,000 yards, but he’ll win another rushing title: This could be Henry’s second 2,000-yard season in three years and his third rushing title out of four. No one has ever hit the 2,000-yard mark twice, of course, but Henry currently leads the league with 870 yards rushing and 108.8 per game. Those numbers puts him on pace for 1,849 yards rushing on the season, and there are some cushy rush defenses ahead — teams with little to play for typically like tackling Henry less and less as the weather turns colder. The Titans also need to feed him to have a productive offense, although the eventual return of Ryan Tannehill, Treylon Burks and some semblance of a passing offense should help Henry. — Joe Rexrode
Washington Commanders
Chase Young will finish the season with more questions than answers: Daron Payne has shined enough to justify a big contract, and DE Montez Sweat’s turn at a massive payday comes this offseason. Then there’s Chase Young. Considering his popularity and potential, keeping the hometown kid beyond his rookie deal had seemed like a formality. It still might be, but it’s not as clear as it once was. Young is nearing his season debut, but his play dipped in 2021, even before he suffered an ACL tear and patella damage. His pass-rushing technique needed refinement, and he admitted recently he hasn’t had time to hone those skills as desired while rehabbing. Will we see an improved version of Young? Realistically, that’s unlikely. — Ben Standig | Read more Commanders predictions
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Kevin Sabitus, Mitchell Leff and Michael Reaves)