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NFL analysts have summed up the popular narrative surrounding the Minnesota Vikings with one simple question: Are they good enough to win in the playoffs?
The narrative first appeared after the Week 1 win over the Packers. The victory was convincing. And at the time, the Packers were seen as contenders. Amplifying the narrative was what occurred the following week when the Eagles easily handled the Vikings on “Monday Night Football.”
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Still, the Vikings fought on. They felt slighted as they marched their way through the Lions, Saints and Bears. They felt underappreciated as they slipped past the Dolphins, Cardinals and Commanders. Then came Buffalo and a game that solidified their standing.
For a week.
Sunday’s jarring defeat lent credence to the doubters, many of whom have seen this statistic: Dating back to 1940, 284 teams have won eight or more of their first 10 games. Of those teams, only the 2022 Minnesota Vikings have a negative point differential (minus-2). That one number is the clearest evidence in support of the popular narrative.
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But I thought it would be valuable to dig deeper, and that led me to a different question: Which advanced metrics identify the Vikings as contenders, and which suggest they’re mere pretenders?
Here are nine examples:
EPA per dropback
EPA, or expected points added, is a statistical measure that gauges the value of each individual play. Essentially, the number derives from how much each dropback helped the team eventually score points.
Kirk Cousins’ current EPA per dropback this season is minus-0.06, which ranks 26th among the 35 quarterbacks with 150 or more dropbacks. It’s also Cousins’ lowest EPA per dropback since he joined the Vikings in 2018.
There are several factors contributing to this number. First, this is Cousins’ first season in coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, which has called for different verbiage and mechanics in terms of reading plays. Second, Cousins has played the majority of his snaps in high-leverage, game-on-the-line moments.
In the last 10 years, how many quarterbacks have posted an EPA this low through 10 games and reached the playoffs? Six, according to TruMedia: Peyton Manning in 2015, Brock Osweiler in 2016, Marcus Mariota in 2019 and Nick Foles and Dwayne Haskins in 2020. Of those six, only Manning reached the Super Bowl.
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Cousins himself has admitted he expected to play better than he has in large chunks so far this fall. His career numbers suggest he will improve. He’ll have to for the Vikings to achieve their goals this season.
Pressure rate allowed offensively
Through 10 games, the Vikings have allowed a 37.7 pressure rate, according to TruMedia, which is the fifth highest in the NFL. Notably, the Vikings have allowed the largest pressure rate when blitzed on fewer than 30 percent of dropbacks.
Right guard Ed Ingram has allowed a league-high 37 pressures, per TruMedia. Left guard Ezra Cleveland has allowed the third most (29). Center Garrett Bradbury ranks 21st with 22 pressures allowed.
How bad has Minnesota’s pass blocking been? Here’s some perspective: Among the 124 teams that have made the playoffs in the last decade, only 15 have allowed a higher pressure rate than 37.7 percent in the regular season. (Naturally, two of those teams are the 2015 and 2017 Vikings.)
But just making the playoffs may not be the goal for the Vikings. Instead, let’s whittle it down to teams that made the Super Bowl. Among the 20 teams that participated in the last decade, only two allowed a higher pressure rate than 37.7 percent in the regular season: the 2013 and 2014 “Legion of Boom” Seahawks.
The point here is the same as what was made painfully clear Sunday night: For these Vikings to attain their loftiest hopes, they must mitigate the pressure on Cousins.
How can they do that? On Monday, wide receiver Justin Jefferson mentioned the possibility of using a quicker passing game, finding playmakers in space and allowing them to generate yards after the catch.
Rushing success rate
Success rate measures the consistency of a team’s performance on a play-by-play basis. From a running perspective, this accounts for the down as well as the distance needed for a first down. The Vikings currently have a rushing success rate of 41.7 percent, which ranks 10th in the NFL.
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Most of Vikings running back Dalvin Cook’s success is happening after contact. Per TruMedia, he’s accounting for 3.82 yards after contact, third best among NFL backs with 100 carries behind Tony Pollard and Khalil Herbert (and just ahead of Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry).
In the last 10 years, the Vikings’ rushing success rate would rank in the top half of teams that competed in the playoffs and in the top half of teams that played in the Super Bowl. For reference, the Rams won the Super Bowl last season with a 40.4 percent rushing success rate.
Defensive tackles for loss
The Vikings rank fourth in the NFL with 59 tackles for loss. Za’Darius Smith has recorded a team-high 14, according to TruMedia, while Danielle Hunter has 10. Jonathan Bullard and Patrick Jones II both have five, and Eric Kendricks and D.J. Wonnum have recorded four each. They all have accomplished this as the Vikings have played more snaps with six or fewer men in the box (65.65 percent) than any other team in the NFL.
Of the 64 teams that have made the playoffs in the last five years, the Vikings’ 59 TFLs through 10 games would rank sixth. It would also be better than all but one team that has participated in the Super Bowl in the last five years and is tied with the total of the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers of 2020.
Though the Cowboys found success running the football Sunday against the Vikings, Minnesota’s quick-reacting front seven has often put opponents in less-than-favorable downs and distances.
Continuing this will be essential down the stretch. The return of Dalvin Tomlinson, who was limited in Monday’s practice with a calf injury, could help.
Turnover margin
Through 10 games, the Vikings have a plus-seven turnover margin, which ranks third in the NFL behind the Eagles and the Ravens. There is no question that this is a key reason for the team’s 8-2 record. There are, however, questions about the sustainability of this number and its ability to predict playoff success.
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Let’s first assess its sustainability of it. In the last five years, the 2019 Patriots (plus-18), the 2018 Bears (plus-13), the 2020 Steelers (plus-12), the 2018 Browns (plus-12) and the 2018 Commanders (plus-12) rank as the five best teams in turnover margin through 10 games.
Only the Patriots improved their total during their remaining games. Three of those teams (the Patriots, Bears and Steelers) made the playoffs, but none reached the Super Bowl.
The turnover margin may not be something to bank on, but it certainly seems indicative of good coaching and disciplined play.
Explosive play rate
An explosive play, according to TruMedia, is a run that goes for more than 12 yards or a pass that gains more than 16 yards. By those standards, the Vikings have a 9.5 percent explosive play rate, which ranks 27th in the NFL.
Going back a decade, only six times has a team earned a playoff berth with a lower explosive-play rate. To take it a step further, the Super Bowl team with the lowest explosive play rate in the last 10 years is the Eagles at 10.5 percent.
The Vikings’ strides in this regard are notable, though. Before Week 7, the Vikings’ explosive play rate was 8.7 percent. Since Week 7, their rate has improved to 10.5 percent. For that number to keep climbing, several things must happen: The offensive line has to do more to dent the opposing front, Cousins must continue to be aggressive and targets like Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson must find space down the field.
Penalty margin
Referees have flagged the Vikings 15 fewer times than they’ve flagged their opponents through 10 games. The margin is the second-best total in the NFL, according to TruMedia, behind the Falcons.
The Vikings see their discipline as an advantage, one of the ways they can win in the margins, a byproduct of practice reps and intensity.
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In the last five years, only 11 teams have amassed a better penalty margin through 10 games. Of those 11 teams, three made the playoffs and two reached the Super Bowl: the 2021 Bengals and the 2019 49ers.
Yards per pass play allowed
Only two teams are allowing more yards per pass play than the Vikings’ mark of 7.07: the Lions and Steelers.
This number is a byproduct of many factors. First, the Vikings defense is designed to play deep-to-short, meaning it tries to force the opposing quarterback to dump the ball down and methodically drive his team down the field. It’s a lot of soft-zone coverage, which allows some leakage underneath. But some leakage is OK for them, so long as it doesn’t result in explosives.
Another factor? In recent weeks, the Minnesota secondary has been handicapped by injury. Cornerback Cam Dantzler suffered an ankle injury against the Commanders, and cornerback Akayleb Evans suffered a concussion against Buffalo. This weekend, their absences propelled rookie cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. into a starting role.
In the last decade, only eight playoff teams allowed more yards per pass through their first 10 games than the Vikings have. Among those eight, only the 2017 Patriots reached the Super Bowl.
Point differential per game
We’ve already said that the Vikings’ total point differential this season is minus-2. On a per-game basis, that figure comes out to minus-0.2.
Since 2000, numerous teams have made the playoffs with negative point differential per game figures through 10 games. Among them, two have found their way to the conference championship: the 2002 Titans and the 2016 Packers. None have made the Super Bowl.
For the purposes of this exercise, though, the team with the lowest point margin per game through 10 games to win the Super Bowl is the 2011 Giants. That Giants team averaged 22.8 points per game through 10 games and allowed 22.8. The 2022 Vikings are averaging 22.9 and allowing 23.1. Scan the statistics of that Giants team, and you’ll find other similarities as well.
The biggest takeaway from all of the above statistics? Ten games are a solid barometer, but the NFL is unpredictable for a reason.
(Top photo of Kirk Cousins: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
