Predicting Canada’s starting XI vs. Belgium: Alphonso Davies returns for historic opener

There’s no way around it: Canada’s World Cup opener on Wednesday against Belgium marks the biggest game in men’s team history.

Not only is Canada back in the World Cup for the first time in 36 years, entering a tournament that has drastically changed in popularity since Canada went 0-3 in Mexico in 1986, but they’re also playing a Belgian team that is among one of the very best in the world right now.

If this Canadian team wants to measure themselves against the rest of the world after finishing at the top of the final stage in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, they’re getting their wish.

“We want to put Canada on the map,” said Canada captain Atiba Hutchinson. “We’ve worked a long time to get here. Tomorrow it all starts.”

So how will Canada approach this match, tactically? Will there be surprises en route?

Even if you accept that Canada coach John Herdman might want to throw a curveball when the lights are the brightest, he more than likely will want to go with the players he trusts. That’s why the starting XI will likely remain unchanged from the lineup he’s rolled out as of late: a 4-4-2 defensively and that can transition into a 3-4-3 in attack with one of the outside backs pushing higher up the pitch and Davies, Larin and David (Or Larin, David and Buchanan) as the forwards.

In general, we should expect players to move into different areas of the pitch when necessary.

“Tactically, we have to be very tight as a team,” said midfielder Jonathan Osorio. “And then offensively, we have to be fluid. Keep them guessing as to what positions different players are taking. At this level, players are clever and can see a game plan very quickly if it’s not fluid, creative and adaptable.”

Goalkeeper

Milan Borjan has missed one training session this week with an abdominal issue, but the hope is that he’ll complete all of his training requirements on Tuesday and be ready to start against Belgium. He’s been Canada’s starter since 2013 and his 68 caps are the most of any Canadian men’s goalkeeper. Herdman will want his influential voice around the team on game day. Borjan has a way of deflating any emerging tenseness from within the team. Like Davies, Borjan could have some influence on the decision or whether he will start. Fans should prepare for the inevitable moment when Borjan’s decision-making will make their heart skip a beat. But with Dayne St. Clair being thrust into the back-up role and with him having just two caps to his name, there’s no choice but to go with Borjan here. And it will be the right choice.

Defenders

Transitions, transitions, transitions. Against Japan in last week’s friendly, Herdman was insistent on Sam Adekugbe starting on the touchline in possession, and with good reason: keeping a player of Adekugbe’s pace and tenacity with the ball wide will be vital as they try to make the most out of limited opportunities.

Adekugbe also brings the required versatility should Herdman want to change things up tactically mid-game, since he can play strictly as a left back or as a wing back.

At centre-back, Kamal Miller is going to need to show every ounce of tactical awareness he’s accumulated to be successful against Belgium.

“He has a margin of growth that’s frightening in a good way,” said fellow defender Steven Vitoria of Miller.

Miller can get beat on the turn a little too easily at times, so he’ll have to show serious foresight and anticipation of Belgium’s forwards’ movements. His physicality against players far more skilled than he’s used to facing in MLS could cause him problems.

Miller told me repeatedly over the summer how much he wanted to facing off against Belgian forward Romelu Lukaku to measure himself. Lukaku isn’t playing, but his logic applies to the rest of Belgium’s talented players as well. Count on his physicality continuing to emerge in the World Cup opener.

“I know I’m gonna get beat for sure,” he said, “but I also know I’m gonna land good tackles.”

Vitoria remains a linchpin on this Canadian team and a candidate to play every single minute of the Canadians’ run in the World Cup. Not only does he remain the key organizer in the back, his goal in Thursday’s friendly against Japan was a reminder of what he can do when he gets forward on set pieces.

Vitoria will catch a break with veteran Belgian striker Romelu Lukaku ruled out of the match but there’s no shortage of other players who could cause him headaches.

There have been moments in Canada’s most recent friendlies when Alistair Johnston looked out of his element with poor choices defensively. And there have also been moments when he looked remarkably confident moving the ball forward, linking up with Tajon Buchanan on the right flank. This isn’t a “you take the good with the bad” situation, but more of a case of Johnston continuing to understand the nuances of playing against top international opponents. Johnston has become a mainstay for Canada, appearing in 28 straight matches for Canada. He’s a remarkably intelligent player and person and it’ll be on him to use that intelligence to adapt to a strong, and experienced, Belgian side. Look for him to have license to move up the wing with the ball.

Midfielders

Herdman, perhaps surprisingly, tipped his hand on Tuesday regarding the status of Alphonso Davies.

“I don’t think there was any doubt we were going to start him,” said Herdman.

He added that on Monday, the team saw Davies hit his spot speeds. From there, it sounds like the decision was made to give him the green light.

“(Davies) is fit. He’s ready to go,” said Herdman.

The question now becomes how long he’ll play in the game, but that’s sort of secondary: Canada having their best player in the starting lineup will be an incredible boost to their chances of pulling off an upset.

Davies will start on the left side of the midfield but will likely have the license to move into the final third when he sees the opportunity.

Look to Junior Hoilett to slot in for Davies if they have only ear-marked Davies for one half, for example. Hoilett brings the kind of quality on the ball and experience that will make him valuable if Canada need to push back against Belgium late in the game.

Not only are there no concerns about Atiba Hutchinson’s fitness level from within Canada’s camp, but there remains a feeling like he could surprise people with how well he’ll be able to move, though he’s played just two games this season including Canada’s friendly last week. Hutchinson has also been ear-marked by the coaching staff as a player who can slot into a centre-back role if need be.

Despite what can be perceived as classic gamesmanship from John Herdman when he proclaimed there’s “no guarantee” Stephen Eustaquio would start against Belgium, he’ll very likely be on the pitch for Canada’s national anthem. Why? Because he is Canada’s most important player, and he has to be.

No, he is not the game breaker that Davies is. But his ability to pull the strings in midfield and get Canada out of trouble against smart Belgian players is unrivaled on the Canadian roster. Herdman has for years wanted his players playing in top leagues and facing intense pressure every week to prepare themselves for games just like this one; Eustaquio’s recent experience playing the best soccer of his life while starting FC Porto in the Champions League is evidence of his importance. He’s going to have to be responsible defensively when tracking the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, arguably the world’s best midfielder. It’s clear the Canadian side have spent long hours preparing for De Bruyne in particular, and rightfully so.

“We have to keep an eye on (De Bruyne’s) play,” said midfielder Jonathan Osorio, whose presence of mind should make him one of the first substitutes. “When (De Bruyne) gets the ball, don’t let him have space. Don’t let him turn and face forward. And around the box, we see what his delivery can do, so we need to try stop that as much as possible.”

A little over a month ago, Tajon Buchanan went the full 90 against Anderlecht in the Jupiler Pro League, lining up against two Belgian national team defenders in Jan Vetonghen and Zeno Debast. He had two shots and drew three fouls, both being the most of any player on his team. There’s no other Canadian player Herdman will want running directly at an aging back line other than Buchanan.

Strikers

Jonathan David might have last played in the Belgian league in 2020, but his experience with his two and a half seasons playing for Gent will still help inform his understanding of the way Belgian players can think and move. He was always going to be critical for this Canadian team in the World Cup, but especially so here.

Expect him to start as a second striker, but still move with fluidity into different areas of the pitch. There are concerns about how well the left side of Belgium’s back line is going to hold up against Canada, and look for David to continually expose that area.

“Of course, at my club, I play as a number 9, but,” David stressed on Sunday, “my coach at my club has also played me on the right side.”

Cyle Larin’s spot in the starting lineup might not be assured throughout the entirety of the tournament, but he should be in for this one. Larin has experience watching plenty of video of Belgium’s defenders with Club Brugge this season. He should, in theory, know the tendencies of an aging back line by now and should, again in theory, be able to expose those tendencies with his size and strength. He should line up as a pure no. 9, occupying the space right in front of the back line.

Of course, the counter to that would be that Belgium head coach Roberto Martinez would have experience scouting Larin and his tendencies (As well as Buchanan for that matter) in his time scouting the Jupiler Pro League.

But Herdman has shown that he trusts Larin, even as his game might dip from time to time.

The Athletic’s predicted Canada starting XI vs. Belgium

Goalkeeper: Milan Borjan

Defenders: Sam Adekugbe, Kamal Miller, Steven Vitoria, Alistair Johnston

Midfielders: Alphonso Davies, Stephen Eustaquio, Atiba Hutchinson, Tajon Buchanan

Forwards: Cyle Larin, Jonathan David

(Photo: PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)