World Cup 2022 group stage permutations: What does every team need to progress?

It’s getting to crunch time at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

The second round of group-stage fixtures have been completed. And now, every team in Qatar whose World Cup fate still hangs in the balance knows exactly what they need to do to progress to the knockout stage.

Three teams have already progressed. The reigning world champions, France. The 2016 European champions, Portugal. And the bookmakers’ favourites to win in Qatar, Brazil.

Two teams are out. The host nation, Qatar. And Canada.

But what does every other team at the World Cup need to do to make it into the last 16?

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Group A

The Netherlands are looking strong in Qatar (Photo: Getty Images)

After two games for each team in Group A, there is a three-way battle between Netherlands, Ecuador and Senegal for the qualification positions. Qatar have been already eliminated.

Occupying top spot and facing the hosts in their final game, Louis van Gaal’s side will more than confident of picking up the point they need to book a last-16 place but they have some work to do. They will have to better Ecuador’s scoreline to guarantee top spot.

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The other game — between second-placed Ecuador and third-placed Senegal — has a qualification shoot out feel to it. The African champions must win to progress, or draw in the hope Netherlands are beaten by three goals against Qatar which is almost impossible.

Meanwhile, a draw will be enough for Ecuador while a victory by a greater margin than Netherlands’ against Qatar would see them clinch top spot.

Matches left

• Ecuador vs Senegal
• Netherlands vs Qatar

Netherlands

• Qualify with win/draw against Qatar
• Qualify with defeat if Ecuador beat Senegal
• Need to better Ecuador’s score to confirm top spot

Ecuador

• Qualify with win/draw against Senegal
• Can top group by beating Senegal and by bettering Netherlands’ result against Qatar

Senegal

• Qualify with win against Ecuador
• Qualify with draw if Netherlands are beaten by Qatar
• Can top group with win if Netherlands lose/draw

Qatar

• Already eliminated

Group B

The USMNT need to beat Iran in their final group stage match (Photo: Getty Images)

Every team in Group B can still make it into the knockout stage. England are all but into the last 16; the only way Gareth Southgate’s will drop out of the top two positions would be if they are beaten by Wales by a margin of four goals.

Rob Page’s side can qualify second in Group B with a more narrow victory, but only if Iran and USA draw. Those two sides look likely to battle it out for the other last-16 place in the group.

USA have to win to reach the knockouts while a draw would be enough for Iran, unless Wales beat England. A win would see them into the next round.

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Matches left

• Iran vs USA
• Wales vs England

England

• Only eliminated with defeat margin of four or more goals against Wales
• Will top group with win
• Can also top group with draw if Iran don’t win or if USA don’t win by four goals

Iran

• Qualify with win against USA
• Can qualify with draw if Wales draw/lose
• Will top group with win if England draw/lose

USA

• Qualify with win against Iran
• Will top group with win if England lose or if England draw and USA win by four-goal margin or more

Wales

• Qualify with win of four or more goals against England
• Can qualify with win if USA and Iran draw
• Will top group with win by four or more goals if USA and Iran draw

Group C

Messi’s goal and assist got Argentina back on track in Group C (Photo: Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

The situation is similar in Group C as all four teams can still make it through the group. Mexico would have to convincingly beat Saudi Arabia, however, as well as hope for a draw between Argentina and Poland.

After their victory — which included a first World Cup goal for Robert Lewandowski — Poland are the frontrunners and a draw would be enough to see them into the last 16.

A Lionel Messi-inspired Argentina win against Mexico has given them a great opportunity to reach the next round and another victory would help them into the knockouts. Although, a draw might lead to their elimination if there is a convincing winner in the game between third-placed Saudi Arabia and Mexico.

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Matches left

• Poland vs Argentina
• Saudi Arabia vs Mexico

Poland

• Qualify with win/draw against Argentina
• Qualify with narrow defeat if Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw
• Will top group with win, or with draw if Saudi Arabia draw/lose

Argentina

• Qualify with win against Poland
• Qualify with draw if Saudi Arabia draw
• Qualify with draw unless Mexico win by four goals or more
• Will top group with win unless Saudi Arabia overturn goal difference gap in win against Mexico

Saudi Arabia

• Qualify with win against Mexico
• Can qualify with draw but would need Poland to lose by four or more goals
• Can top group with win if Poland and Argentina draw

Mexico

• Qualify with win by four or more goals against Saudi Arabia
• Can qualify with win if Poland also win
• Would need overturn four-goal deficit if they win and Poland lose

Group D

France have been in fine form (Photo: Getty Images)

The holders’ curse has not affected Didier Deschamps and his side. After wins against Australia and Denmark, they are already into the last 16 and will be hopeful of topping Group D.

There is a three-way battle between Australia, Denmark and Tunisia for the other qualifying place. Mitchell Duke’s brilliant header has put Graham Arnold’s side in pole position and they know that a draw would likely see them into the knockouts.

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Denmark and Tunisia need a win to have a chance but, even if they do get three points, they will still be reliant on the other Group D match.

Matches left

• Australia vs Denmark
• Tunisia vs France

France

• Already qualified
• Win/draw will confirm top spot
• Will win group if Australia don’t beat Denmark
• Would only drop into second if they lose and Australia overturn six-goal deficit

Australia

• Qualify with win against Denmark
• Qualify with draw if Tunisia draw/lose against France

Denmark

• Qualify with win if Tunisia draw/lose against France
• If Tunisia win, Denmark must better their winning margin to qualify

Tunisia

• Qualify with win if Australia and Denmark draw
• If Denmark win, Tunisia must better their winning margin to qualify

Group E

Spain should reach the knockout stages (Photo: Getty Images)

It’s all to play for in Group E heading into the final round of fixtures. Spain have put themselves in a strong position to qualify and look likely to do exactly that in their final game against Japan.

Meanwhile, Germany were handed a reprieve in Japan’s defeat to Costa Rica and scored an important late equaliser against Luis Enrique’s side to boost their chances of going through.

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Japan and Costa Rica — both sat on three points — face tough tasks to beat each other to the qualification places.

Matches left

• Costa Rica vs Germany
• Japan vs Spain

Spain

• Qualify with win/draw against Japan
• Will top group with win, draw will be enough if Costa Rica draw/lose

Japan

• Qualify with win against Spain
• Qualify with draw if Costa Rica and Germany draw
• Can qualify with draw if Germany win but only if they score more goals than Germany
• Will top group with win unless Costa Rica overturn six-goal deficit

Costa Rica

• Qualify with win against Germany
• Qualify with draw if Japan lose
• Can top group with win if Spain and Japan draw

Germany

• Qualify with win against Costa Rica if Spain beat Japan
• Can qualify with win if Spain lose but would have to overturn eight-goal deficit
• Can qualify with win of two or more goals if Spain and Japan draw
• Can also qualify with win if Spain and Japan draw but must score more goals than Japan

Group F

Morocco stunned Belgium last time out (Photo: Getty Images)

Group F favourites Belgium are staring a group-stage elimination in the face after two severely underwhelming performances. They were fortunate to take three points from their clash with Canada otherwise they would already be at even greater risk.

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Croatia’s win against Canada from behind not only put them in pole position to qualify but also eliminated John Herdman’s side.

Morocco sprung a shock as they beat Belgium 2-0 and have the perfect opportunity to book a last-16 place when they face Canada.

Matches left

• Canada vs Morocco
• Croatia vs Belgium

Croatia

• Qualify with win/draw against Belgium
• Can qualify with defeat if Morocco also lose but must lose by a lesser margin
• Will top group by matching Morocco’s result/matching their winning margin

Morocco

• Qualify with win/draw against Canada
• Qualify with defeat if Croatia win
• Can qualify with defeat if Croatia and Belgium draw but can only lose by two goals or fewer
• Will top group with win by bettering Croatia’s result/bettering their winning margin

Belgium

• Qualify with win against Croatia
• Can qualify with draw if Morocco lose by three goals or more
• Will top group with win if Morocco draw/lose

Canada

• Already eliminated

Group G

Brazil already look very difficult to beat (Photo: Getty Images)

Brazil have shown why they are so widely fancied to win the World Cup in their first two games as they have already secured safe passage to the last 16. They haven’t been as devastating as many might have expected but they’ve got six points from two games and their defence is yet to have been breached.

Switzerland are the only other team in Group G to have picked up a win so they are in pole position to follow the Selecao into the next round.

Cameroon and Serbia playing out a thoroughly entertaining 3-3 draw on Monday didn’t really benefit either team but they both still have a chance of qualifying with wins in the final round of fixtures.

Matches left

• Cameroon vs Brazil
• Serbia vs Switzerland

Brazil

• Already qualified
• Win/draw will confirm top spot
• Will also confirm top spot with defeat if Switzerland don’t beat Serbia

Switzerland

• Qualify with win
• Can qualify with draw if Cameroon lose/draw

Cameroon

• Can qualify with win if Switzerland lose but Cameroon better Serbia win
• Can qualify with win if Switzerland draw as long as they have scored more goals than Switzerland

Serbia

• Qualify with win if Cameroon lose/draw
• Can qualify with win if Cameroon win but must win by greater margin

Group H

Ronaldo may not have a club but he’s through to the World Cup knockout stage (Photo: Getty Images)

Similarly to Brazil in Group G, Portugal are already through to the last 16. They have six points from their two games against Ghana and Uruguay and they are very well-placed to confirm top spot.

Surprisingly, Ghana are second in Group H heading into the final round of fixtures which leaves Uruguay and South Korea with mountains to climb as they fight for the final qualification place.

Matches left

• Ghana vs Uruguay
• South Korea vs Portugal

Portugal

• Already qualified
• Win/draw will confirm top spot
• Will also confirm top spot with defeat if Ghana don’t beat Uruguay

Ghana

• Qualify with win
• Can qualify with draw if South Korea lose/draw

South Korea

• Can qualify with win if Ghana lose but must better Uruguay result
• Can qualify if Ghana draw but must overturn goal difference deficit

Uruguay

• Qualify with win if South Korea lose/draw
• Can qualify with win if South Korea win but must overturn goal difference deficit

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(Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)