We’re past Thanksgiving and MLB’s Winter Meetings are next week in San Diego, so it’s a good time to answer some of the myriad questions so many Braves fans have about how this offseason will shake out.
By now the item atop the to-do list — the shortstop situation vis-à-vis Dansby Swanson — has a figurative flashing red light, in the view of many curious or concerned Braves followers. There also are other pertinent matters to address.
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So let’s get to it, with the caveat that, as most know, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos operates more covertly than just about any executive team-builder in pro sports, and he’s liable to make an unexpected major move within an hour of this being published.
That said, we supply what we know based on conversations with players and team officials, observations, gut reactions and whatever knowledge we might have from being around the team and having a pretty good feel for its priorities and financial situation.
Since so many questions from our subscribers were similar, I grouped some and answered them together. Questions have been lightly edited for style and clarity.
I’m not clear why the Braves are where they are with Dansby Swanson. If money is an issue, seems to me the other high-profile options out there, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, would cost more for roughly the same production. What am I missing? — Victor B.
I see three possible outcomes to the Dansby saga. 1) Re-sign Dansby; 2) Dansby leaves and Vaughn Grissom takes over at shortstop; 3) Dansby leaves and Atlanta trades for a starting shortstop. Rank them in order of likelihood. My ranking is 3,2,1. Follow up: who are they most likely to trade for? — Matt L.
If Swanson chooses to leave, might the Braves use the extra money for a bat (either left field, DH or for both) or more relief pitchers, and live with Orlando Arcia/Grissom at shortstop and … with the eight starting pitchers they have? — RM C
Whew. It’s a lot. Let me start by reiterating that the Braves could probably have re-signed Swanson a year ago with perhaps a five-year, $100 million to $110 million offer, thereby staying at the $22 million figure that’s a peak salary in various long-term extensions they’ve handed out recently. But after Swanson had a career-best season — his 5.7 bWAR nearly matched his total (5.8) over the previous three seasons combined — the soon-to-be 29-year-old is in position to command significantly more in average annual value as a free agent.
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Because the Braves waited to make him an initial offer last summer — believed to be worth around $100 million — Swanson was so close to free agency that he did the reasonable thing and went to the open market to see what other suitors might offer, since most projections have him getting a five- to seven-year deal with an AAV of $25 million or more. In the meantime, the Braves since last summer gave two more long extensions — to Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, before they finished 1-2 for National League Rookie of the Year — that look like team-friendly deals for the long term, but deals that, for luxury tax purposes using AAV, helped push the Braves close to the luxury tax threshold. As a result of all the extensions, including Austin Riley’s 10-year, $212 million extension and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal, the Braves already have a projected payroll of around $195 million and luxury tax payroll of nearly $230 million.
To sign Swanson or make any other big-ticket addition — shortstop, bullpen, rotation, left field, anything — the Braves presumably would have to surpass the luxury tax threshold. And while it’s not a major factor for a first-time penalized team — 20 percent tax on any amount between $233 million and $253 million — there is an additional surcharge of 12 percent for amounts between $20 million and $40 million above the threshold. And any team that exceeds it by $40 million will also have its first pick in next year’s draft pushed back 10 spots, as long as it’s not a top-six pick. If the Braves do exceed the $233 million threshold, I can’t see them doing so by more than $20 million and moving into heavier penalties.
That’s why they’re moving forward with a Plan B of having Vaughn Grissom potentially take over at shortstop. I said late in the season that I didn’t think they would do that because he wasn’t ready, after barely playing more than 20 games above Single A prior to his MLB debut in August, when he was thrust into MLB duties at second base because of injuries. But after I talked recently with infield guru Ron Washington, who is working one-on-one with Grissom in three intensive one-week sessions on shortstop play in Wash’s hometown of New Orleans, I do believe the Braves would go into the season, or at least to spring training, with Grissom and Arcia as options one and two, figuring they could always scramble to find another shortstop this spring if necessary.
Another way this could go: Braves trade for a proven shortstop. An obvious candidate is Cleveland’s Amed Rosario, who has one year left before free agency, is projected to make $9 million in arbitration, and is coming off a season where he had a career-high 4.2 bWAR and hit .283 with a .715 OPS, a majors-leading nine triples and 11 homers with 18 stolen bases in 153 games. If the Braves traded for him, it would also provide more time to evaluate Grissom as a shortstop at the Triple-A level.
It might take a couple of prospects to get Rosario, but the Braves have extra pitching prospects — some are running out of minor-league options — despite the overall lack of depth in their system. They also have a highly respected catcher they could trade — Manny Piña, who signed a two-year, $8 million contract last November, then had season-ending wrist surgery in May. In his stead, young slugger William Contreras made the most of an opportunity, being selected to the NL All-Star team (as a DH) alongside Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud. With the d’Arnaud-Contreras tandem back, the Braves could move Piña if it helps fill another need and shed a little payroll.
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Piña’s former team, the Brewers, might take a step back and reduce payroll, and they have a shortstop the Braves and other teams could covet in Willy Adames, who is two years from free agency. However, it’s not clear if the Brewers would move Adames, one of their best and most popular players, and if they do his cost would be considerably higher than Rosario’s given the extra year of control.
With the Mets and Phillies set to make splash free-agent moves this offseason for sure, other than re-signing Dansby do you think the Braves will make a splash free-agent move of their own to keep pace in the gauntlet that will be NL East? And if they do, who would you think that free agent could potentially be? — Reggie W.
Anthopoulos doesn’t make moves to keep pace or in response to what other teams in the division are doing. He and his assistants have their big board of desirable targets, and Anthopoulos is known to make bold moves and make them quickly if he sees a possibility. Or, such as was the case with Freddie Freeman — and perhaps Swanson — he’s also been patient and not budged off a number he’s comfortable with offering, in terms of years or average salary.
I’ll say this: Anthopoulos is far more likely to make a short-term deal with an AAV that’s surprisingly high — think Josh Donaldson and his one-year, $23 million deal four years ago when Donaldson was coming off two injury-marred seasons, or the pair of one-year, $20 million deals he’s given Charlie Morton — than he is to go beyond the number of years he’s comfortable giving a player. When he was running out of options two ago, he signed Marcell Ozuna to a four-year, $64 million deal in February, just before spring training. That was a longer deal than he wanted to give Ozuna, and it’s one that’s become an albatross for the Braves. They would love to find a team that would trade for Ozuna and pay at least a small portion of the $37 million he’s still owed. That contract also probably serves as a frequent reminder to Anthopoulos of why he so rarely goes beyond where his gut tells him he should with a free agent.
Oh, and to answer your question, no, I don’t think the Braves make any additional big-splash signings if they re-sign Swanson, which would be quite a big splash itself. If they don’t re-sign him, and if they move Piña or otherwise find a way to shed a little payroll, I could see the Braves making a short-term, huge AAV signing that might surprise a lot of people and put them squarely in luxury tax land. But it would obviously have to be a special player that Anthopoulos believes could put the Braves over the top. For instance, a frontline starter to go with a staff that already returns Max Fried, Strider, Kyle Wright and Morton. Add another ace to the front of that rotation, and the Braves wouldn’t need to worry much at all about more bullpen or lineup additions.
Based on reports that the Braves won’t spend much this offseason, is it fair to wonder about the logic of giving Charlie Morton $20 million? I was OK with the deal in a vacuum but seems like a potential overpay if they’re not able to fill other holes because of payroll restraints. — Colton J.
I’m glad you — and plenty of others — asked this question. Because the Morton contract demonstrates something. It exemplifies how much value Anthopoulos places on clubhouse chemistry, and how strongly the Braves have leaned into analytics since the day he took over baseball operations in November 2017. Also, it’s an example of his philosophy of going with high AAVs on shorter deals. The Braves use analytics extensively, and their advanced stats on Morton showed that, even in his age-38 season, after a broken leg ended his 2021 World Series and prevented him from doing his usual offseason regimen, Morton still had elite spin rates and fastball velocity in 2022, but just took a little longer to get going and appeared to tire some down the stretch.
With a normal offseason, they believe he can pitch closer to the 3.34 ERA in 185 innings that he had in 2021 (201 innings including postseason) than the 4.34 ERA he had in 2022. Keep in mind, after posting a 5.67 ERA in his first 12 starts in 2022, Morton had a 3.16 ERA and .194 opponents’ average in his next 17 starts, with 102 strikeouts and 24 walks in 80 innings during that stretch from mid-just through August.
Then there are the intangibles. He is, by all accounts of those who’ve played with him in Atlanta and in his previous stops in Tampa and Houston, as good of a teammate as one can possibly have, and makes himself constantly available to other pitchers, offering advice and insight. Fried and Wright have lauded him for the assistance he’s provided in their development. A few weeks ago, I asked Mike Soroka about the Braves re-signing Morton. Soroka has been out since August 2020 rehabbing from a twice-torn Achilles, and Morton has talked with him extensively in that time.
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“We always said that the longer we can keep Charlie around, the better,” Soroka said, referring to himself and Braves teammates. “He rehabbed through the offseason, came into spring training and didn’t quite get the full spring training to iron out those kinks and, you know, it took him a little bit. But we all knew it was still there.”
He added, “Charlie’s the nicest guy. He’s got some of the best perspective and advice in baseball. He’s been through it all. He was one of the guiding voices for me when I ruptured a second time. He had the best words. Like, he said, ‘It’s gonna be OK.’ Yeah. You know, that’s the best thing I could have heard at the time. And yeah, we’re excited to have him back.”
Does the Braves’ new ownership structure with Liberty Media mean anything to the team operations? — Ron W.
How will Liberty spinning off the Braves business affect operations and payroll? — Mike D.
First let me say, Mike D. has got all the fly juice. (If you know, you know.)
Now, regarding the Braves and the pending split-off of stock. Liberty Media announced Nov. 17 it plans to create a separate publicly traded company to be called Atlanta Braves Holdings, and it should not affect anything you see on the field or at the ballpark, according to team officials.
Braves chairman Terry McGuirk will continue as the “control person” of the Braves, serving as a liaison of sorts between ownership and team officials, and the Braves management structure won’t change. McGuirk said recently that the Braves, who’ve had a top-10 payroll the past couple of seasons, aim to become a top-five payroll, and Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei reiterated that after the stock-split announcement, saying the Braves could have a top-five payroll within a few years.
One important thing this separate-stock venture could do is make the Braves both more valuable and potentially easier to sell in the future, by solving some tax issues that have existed when the team is part of Liberty Media.
How do you see left playing out? Continue to platoon Eddie Rosario, Robbie Grossman, Ozuna? Or is there a more permanent option, even including Vaughn Grissom? — Nathan L.
How much would the Braves have to give up to trade Ozuna? Would it free up enough money to sign a big shortstop free agent, Swanson included? — David F.
What are the chances that Justyn-Henry Malloy takes over left field in the summer of 2023? — Bob K.
Do you see a return of Adam Duvall to the Braves for 2023? — Raj K.
I’ll start with the last question first. Yes, it’s possible that Duvall will re-sign with Atlanta, given the mutual interest and admiration of both parties and his status as a known commodity for the Braves both on the field and in the clubhouse — one that should be relatively inexpensive. Duvall, 34, hit just .213 with a .677 OPS in minus-0.1 bWAR in 86 games last season before season-ending wrist surgery in July. But during the 2020-2021 seasons he had 54 homers and 146 RBIs in 764 plate appearances, which works out to 162-game averages of 43 homers and 117 RBIs. Plus, he continues to play solid-or-better defense in left field.
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It’s not hard to envision a platoon with him and Rosario, who’s owed $9 million in the second year of a two-year deal. If they can’t get rid of Ozuna, the Braves know they need to at least keep him out of the outfield and confined to DH if at all possible. Their best hope is that Ozuna impresses during spring training or early in the season and another team has an injury and sudden need for a left fielder, in which case the Braves might at least be able to dump him without eating the entire $37 million.
As for Malloy, right now I’d say he’s the one position-player prospect to keep an eye on for next season. And yes, I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could end up playing left field at some point for Atlanta in 2023.
He hit .289 with 17 homers and an .862 OPS in 133 games at three minor-league levels last season, and the stat that jumped off the page with Malloy was the .404 on-base percentage and 97 walks to go with 138 strikeouts, the kind of ratio rarely seen with young players and prospects coming up these days. He also hit .306 with a .438 OBP in 20 games (89 PAs) in the recent Arizona Fall League.
Malloy only played 62 games above Single A — 54 in Double A, eight in Triple A — but we know by now inexperience is not a strong deterrent for Anthopoulos and his assistants. If he thinks a kid can help the big-league team, Anthopoulos won’t hesitate to call him up. Also worth noting: Malloy, a sixth-round pick out of Georgia Tech in 2021, will be 23 in February, not as young as some others at a similar stage of their pro careers.
While I thought after Grissom’s initial red-hot couple of weeks in the majors that the Braves might pencil in the athletic youngster for left field in 2023, that was when I still assumed they would re-sign Swanson. I stopped assuming that when they let him get to the open market. And the fact they have Grissom working out exclusively at shortstop with Washington this winter tells me they’re serious about playing him there and aren’t considering left field as an option for Grissom at this time.
Rosario had a lost season due to laser surgery after injuring his eye at some point in the spring. He came back midsummer and finished with a .212 average and puny 64 OPS+ in 250 at-bats, but the Braves are hopeful that a full offseason to rest and be further removed from surgery will help him return to form. He was a 2021 postseason hero after being traded at the deadline, and had 12 homers and a .778 OPS in 292 plate appearances against right-handers that season with Cleveland and Atlanta.
Among NL teams, the Braves got the fifth-most strikeouts and fewest walks from left fielders last season, while their .285 OBP was also last in the league at the position and their .716 OPS was 11th. That helped negate 28 homers they got from left fielders, second-most in the NL behind the Phillies with NL home-run leader Kyle Schwarber. The Braves got 12 homers from Ozuna in 195 at-bats as a left fielder, but with 48 strikeouts in those ABs. He had a .295 OBP and .757 OPS as a left fielder, and did we mention woeful defense?
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Duvall had eight homers and an .876 OPS in 92 at-bats as a left fielder, while Rosario hit just .228 with four homers, 42 strikeouts and a .629 OPS in 167 ABs at the position. Trade-deadline addition Grossman was the Braves’ best hitter at the position, albeit in a small sample size — .297/.366/.469 slash with three homers in 64 at-bats in left field. He also became a free agent.
(Top photo of Dansby Swanson: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
