Now that you’ve had time to peruse and critique (we’ve seen the comments) Dane Brugler’s first 2023 NFL mock draft, let’s take a deeper dive into our resident draft guru’s thought process. Why did Dane make some of the picks he made? Is there anything he’d like a do-over on, now that he’s been able to sit back and second guess himself?
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The Athletic’s NFL Draft editor Chris Burke hit Dane for a few pressing, post-mock questions:
No real surprise that Bryce Young landed at No. 1, but Will Anderson Jr., and Jalen Carter could be special. How much consideration did you give to a non-QB for the Texans?
The Texans will be somewhat of a mystery at No. 1. While they have an obvious need at quarterback, this draft doesn’t have a no-doubt-about-it QB prospect like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow. If I have to bet on any of these quarterbacks, it would be Young (and I know many throughout the league share the same thought). But not everyone will be on board with his outlier size.
Plus, in his 20 years in the league, Texans general manager Nick Caserio has never been part of a front office that drafted a quarterback in the top 50 picks, so we don’t have a frame of reference for his preferences or dealbreakers at the position. The other factor is the enormous intrigue around the league over the potential of 2024 NFL Draft’s quarterbacks — that has come up multiple times in conversations with teams.
The Texans have plenty of needs up and down the roster and are likely at least a year away from seriously competing. If they “love” one of these quarterbacks, then they should draft him and build the roster around him. If they “like” these quarterbacks, then they should take the cornerstone defender (Will Anderson Jr., or Jalen Carter) and target a quarterback next year. It is fair to assume Houston will be picking early in the 2024 NFL Draft, plus the Texans own Cleveland’s 2024 first-rounder. They’ll have the ammo to move up, if necessary.
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Sort of flipping the first question: You’ve got the Lions (at both 3 and 13) passing on a quarterback for defense. Was that a team-specific decision to go Carter over C.J. Stroud (and then Joey Porter Jr., over Will Levis) or do you think Stroud could slip a bit?
I don’t know if the Lions will pass on a quarterback. You don’t know if the Lions will pass on a quarterback. The Lions don’t know if the Lions will pass on a quarterback. It’s still too early in the process to say with any certainty which direction any team will go.
But in this scenario, I had Detroit passing on Stroud at No. 3 because I question if the Lions decision-makers will view the Ohio State quarterback as a clear upgrade over Jared Goff. Is Stroud the missing piece who can take a team to new heights? I’m just not sold on that line of thinking. I understand those who say you have to strike while the iron is hot: The Lions don’t expect to be picking in the top five in future drafts, so they should take a quarterback while the opportunity is there. But that won’t be the motivation of general manager Brad Holmes. Detroit doesn’t need to draft a quarterback just to draft a quarterback.
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It’s the same point I made about Houston: If the front office loves one of these quarterbacks and comes away believing that prospect can elevate the team long-term, that should be the pick. But again, I’m just not convinced right now that the Lions will feel that way about Stroud or Will Levis. We’ll see if that changes the next few months.
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There aren’t any trades in this mock, but which teams would you tab as the likeliest to make a move up the board in Round 1?
Predicting who would be looking to move down is easier to answer. And the answer is: almost every team, especially those in the top five (I hear you, Bears’ fans, I know you want to move back).
As for the teams that might look to move up, it would presumably be for a quarterback, right? The Raiders are in an interesting spot because if the franchise has to choose between its head coach or quarterback, Josh McDaniels likely wins that battle and Derek Carr could be on his way out. When McDaniels was in Denver, he was aggressive to trade back into the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft to draft a quarterback (Tim Tebow, so hopefully McDaniels learned from that failed experience).
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The Colts have to do something at quarterback this offseason, and another attempt to go the veteran route might not appease ownership. They’re currently sitting in the teens, so we could see the Colts look to jump up a few picks to nab one of these QBs.
The other interesting team is the Saints, who don’t own a first-round pick. However, New Orleans has never been shy trading future picks to move up, and it might have extra draft capital if a potential Sean Payton trade comes to fruition. Should one or two of these quarterbacks fall out of the top seven, there will be teams looking to pounce.
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You mentioned that settling on a WR1 was “maybe the biggest challenge in this mock draft.” Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jalin Hyatt all landed in Round 1 (in that order). How fluid will that position be over the next five months?
Aside from where to mock the quarterbacks, the next biggest challenge was figuring out how early and where to slot the wide receivers. We have been spoiled the last few years with the level of receiver prospects at the top of the draft, but this year’s pass catchers aren’t quite on that same level.
Among NFL teams, it felt pretty universal pre-draft that receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Drake London, Garrett Wilson and a few others had the talent to be difference-makers early in their pro careers. This class has several receivers who should be productive, but they aren’t talked about in the same way teams as the top receivers from the past two drafts.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see Johnston, Addison or another receiver sneak into the top half of Round 1. NFL teams want offensive fireworks and that could elevate a few receivers during the process, which is why it’s a challenge figuring out where to slot them.
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In terms of the order of how the receivers will be drafted, I definitely think it will be fluid. Different teams have different needs at the position, which will affect how they rank each player. Johnston offers something different than Addison. Jalin Hyatt and Jaxon Smith-Njigba went back-to-back in the mock, but they have very different set of skills. And you can’t rule out LSU’s Kayshon Boutte, North Carolina’s Josh Downs or a handful of senior receiving prospects, like SMU’s Rashee Rice, Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman, Wake Forest’s A.T. Perry or a few others.
Do you have a favorite fit or two here? And, on the flip side, were there any picks you didn’t love once you made them?
When doing an exercise like this, it is easy to force a pick or tie your reasonings in knots as you consider potential team needs, front-office tendencies and a million other factors.
There were absolutely a few team-player pairings that created conflict in my brain, including Jacksonville taking Johnston at No. 11. With what we know right now, the top three on the Jaguars’ receiver depth chart next season would be Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. That’s already a solid group, something that can’t be said for other positions on the roster, especially on defense. It was tough to pass on cornerback Kelee Ringo for the Jags. An all-Georgia cornerback tandem of Ringo and Tyson Campbell sounds promising.
But my reasoning for Johnston to the Jaguars was the team’s lack of size in the wide receiver room and the organization’s responsibility to surround their potential superstar quarterback with the best weapons possible. However, my confidence level is low that general manager Trent Baalke would go the wide receiver route in the first round.
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I had two running backs in this mock, but, honestly, I don’t feel confident about either the Ravens or Eagles going that direction in Round 1. Considering what both teams want out of their run games, it makes sense that they would jump at a chance to upgrade the position — the Ravens’ have been decimated by injuries; Miles Sanders is in the final year of his deal with the Eagles. But considering the way both front offices operate, it feels unlikely that they would see the value in a running back that early.
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However, if Baltimore grades out Bijan Robinson as one of the five or seven best talents in this draft, which is a realistic possibility, could it really pass on him with a pick in the 20s? As for the Eagles, with two picks in Round 1, maybe they’d be more flexible with the second selection (especially if it is the last pick in the round like it is here). While I understand fans of the Ravens and Eagles saying they can’t see it, I wouldn’t call either choice impossible.
On the other end of things, there were several fits that just made sense.
I really like the draft haul for the Lions in this scenario, adding two impact defenders with defensive tackle Jalen Carter and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. On top of their talent, both players check a lot of boxes for what the organization covets.
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A pair of tight ends made the cut in this mock and I love the fit for both. Aside from the geographical connections with Michael Mayer and Cincinnati, the Notre Dame tight end would give Burrow a different type of chain-moving weapon. The Bengals love to hunt for the home run, but adding a consistent doubles hitter would bring much needed balance to the offense. A few picks later, Georgia’s Darnell Washington landed in Tennessee, an idyllic marriage of skill set and identity. At 275 pounds, Washington is basically an extra offensive lineman as a blocker, but he also has athletic potential in the passing game.
I also really liked Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the Vikings in the late first round. Adam Thielen’s contract would be the obstacle, but if Minnesota can move on from him, the Buckeyes’ pass catcher would be a perfect upgrade in that role. The Vikings feel like they have a window with Kirk Cousins to make a Super Bowl run, so adding Smith-Njigba alongside Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn is an intriguing thought.
(Top photo of C.J. Stroud: Joseph Maiorana / USA Today)