Hello again, my friends, and welcome to the do or die weeks of your fantasy season! Two weeks to play and the pressure is on. If you’re reading this, you most likely are fighting for something right now, whether it be a regular season title, a first round bye, or maybe just trying to stay in or slip into the playoffs. You’ve made it this far and if you’re not eliminated, well… there is everything to play for! So let’s dive into this week’s games and get some wins!
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There are a lot of big games and bigger storylines heading into this week, but none bigger then the return of Deshaun Watson under center for the Browns AND his return back to Houston in his first game back from suspension. From a fantasy perspective, I think we have to expect Watson to be rusty and struggle a bit his first week back — and maybe even for a few weeks. This is a game in which the Browns will rely heavily on the ground game with Nick Chubb and they’ll try to get Watson in a rhythm with a lot of quick slants and some screens. I wouldn’t look for big numbers this week from Watson but would love to see a nice handful of designed runs. Going forward, if you have been stashing Watson and you are heading to the fantasy playoffs, there aren’t more than maybe six or seven quarterbacks I’d rather have to try and win me a championship. He has a lot of valuable pieces in this offense that can help him put up big-time numbers come Weeks 15-17 in the fantasy playoffs. We all see how valuable it is to have QBs who can get the job done on the ground, and Watson certainly checks that box. I’m really excited to watch the final six weeks of this Browns offense.
The main event this weekend resides in Cincinnati, as the Chiefs visit the Bengals in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game upset that sent the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Now we all remember that game, but the one I remember was a month earlier in fantasy championship week, when the Bengals also defeated the Chiefs. If you had Joe Burrow — and more specifically Ja’Marr Chase — in your title game I’ll just assume the fantasy championship trophy is in your possession, because that’s what those two guys delivered. Fast forward to this week and Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the NFL’s best duo, ride into town looking for revenge. This game has a Vegas total of 53 and I expect the score to go well over that number. The biggest factor in this game is the return and health of Chase, who — like we said earlier — took this game over last year. I think he will be on somewhat of a pitch count his first week back (so does our injury expert Virginia Zakas, who goes more in depth on him here) and not play his normal snaps but if he’s active, he’s in your lineup no questions asked. I just don’t like the fact that he felt he wasn’t ready to go one short week ago and is maybe rushing back just to be in the lineup for this big-time showdown with all eyes on this game. I also think this is another big Tee Higgins game and that he will benefit greatly from just having Chase out there to deflect coverage from him. The Bengals are hitting their stride at the right time and this game should go down to the final possession.
I’m looking forward to another matchup this weekend — and it’s not two teams I’m referring to, but a big-time one on one matchup between two elite young stars. This Sunday the best receiver in the game, Justin Jefferson, goes up against Sauce Gardner from the Jets, who absolutely nailed this draft pick unlike their one last year (yes, that’s a Zach Wilson shot). Gardner is already one of the best corners in the NFL in his rookie season and will be the best in the league in no time. This is what a shut-down corner looks like, folks. I wish these two were in the same division or conference so we could see them match up against each other more often, but we will have to just enjoy this week’s battle and be entertained.
Intermission: Here’s this week’s podcast, where we actually try to stay on track and dole out as much advice as possible in an hour.
Making the right call on fringe players in your starting lineup can make or break your season right now, so I thought this week’s list might be helpful to some of you trying to make those tough calls on some “flex plays.” Here are the…
Top 10 fringe flex type plays I’m leaning toward playing in my lineups if in a pinch
- Mack Hollins (Expecting a lot of points in this one and Hollins is locked into the number two role for the time being — and producing. Played 95% of the snaps last week and has a ceiling of 20+ fantasy points)
- Gus Edwards (returned last week, took back the backfield and found the end zone on 16 carries. They’re 9 point favorites this week at home)
- Darius Slayton ( Top target vs. a leaky secondary and keeps showing up every week. Time to accept he’s the No. 1 now and should be good for double digit points)
- Brian Robinson (Still kicking myself for not starting him last week but man did he look good and I think it’s starting to click for BRob in this offense. Add in a nicked up Antonio Gibson and Robinson needs to be in your lineups this week)
- D’Andre Swift (OK, relax, I know it’s a big name but have you been starting him? Well, I think it’s time to jump back on board this week. Wednesday was the first time he was off the practice injury report)
- AJ Dillon (I know, I know… it’s been a miserable year having Dillon but he finally found the end zone last week and looked good in doing so. Add in the fact that yesterday he just announced he was expecting the birth of his first child and sign me up for another trip to the end zone this week!!)
- DeAndre Carter (Going right back to him again this week with what looks to be no Mike Williams again for Herbert and the Chargers. 10 TARGETS LAST WEEK)
- Donovan Peoples-Jones (Slow week last week for DPJ but tends to show up on road games for the Browns and this qualifies)
- Elijah Moore (Ohhhhh c’mon — you didn’t think I was mailing it in on Elijah, did you? Mike White has come to save us!!!! I think his snaps go up from only 45% last week and his role grows vs. this Vikings secondary that can be picked on)
- Julio Jones (I said it on this week’s pod, but he looks spry again and think he’s locking himself into being the 3rd target in this offense in a weekly basis — and with Evans banged up he might be leaned on a little more this week. Go to him if you need 10 fantasy points)
Good luck in Week 13 and lets get those playoff spots locked up!
(Top photo: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)