Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2022

The annual winter top 20 prospects list used to be the last opportunity to consider the summer’s first-round selection as a prospect. Since 50 NHL games is graduation day for the list, fans only got a glimpse of names like Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and others. Those men landed in the NHL in October after being drafted in June, as the Oilers rushed the top-10 talent.

That backstory gives the current situation added intrigue. This year’s list features the last four first-round picks, and none of the four has emerged as a true favourite for the top spot.

There are many new names, owing to some fine drafting by the amateur scouting department over recent seasons.

The criteria for the list is straightforward. Players with over 50 NHL games (25 games for goalies) graduate and are no longer eligible. This year’s grads include Ryan McLeod (No. 3 last winter), and Stuart Skinner (No. 9).

The list also graduates those who were traded or prospects for whom the organization no longer holds playing rights. From last winter, Dmitri Samorukov (No. 7 in winter 2021), Ilya Konovalov (No. 11), William Lagesson (No. 15) and Filip Berglund (No. 19) fall into this category.

Here are the winter 2022 top 20 prospects, with last winter’s rank in brackets.

1. (2) LW-C Dylan Holloway

Edmonton Oilers (NHL)

In the closest call in memory, Holloway emerges as the top prospect in the system this winter. His dynamic skating and ability to make creative plays give him the edge over three other prospects considered for top spot. Holloway has been playing in the NHL exclusively this season and has a story to tell.

Holloway’s season has been spent on the depth lines (mostly No. 4 line). The numbers imply he can play on a skill line when the coaching staff decides he’s ready for the added responsibility. His 1.2 points per 60 at five-on-five ranks No. 9 among Oilers forwards, and enjoyed a fantastic afternoon in Manhattan on a line with Warren Foegele and McLeod (the line has two goals in just four minutes together).

Most of Holloway’s game (speed, passing, shot, defensive awareness, willingness to engage physically, drive to high traffic areas) can be described as average to above average. The one area of concern is offensive output. He projects as a strong top-six NHL winger who may be a complementary scorer, but if he can drive some offence Holloway will be a substantial NHL player for years to come.

2. (1) LD Philip Broberg

Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)

Broberg’s AHL career spans two seasons and the numbers are impressive. In 38 career games with the Bakersfield Condors, Broberg has scored 6-21-27 and has an on-ice even strength goal differential of 32-17 (65 percent).

His NHL numbers through parts of two seasons show promise, but the samples are small. One of the concerns Oilers fans have about Broberg is his lack of physicality, but his foot speed and puck skills have high value. Looking at the portions of two seasons playing in the NHL so far, we get some encouraging signs.

Broberg’s size and foot speed are compelling, and he is finally healthy after an upper-body injury plagued him during training camp. General manager Ken Holland told media last summer Broberg would have to play his way off the team, and injuries plus performance meant Broberg began the year with Bakersfield. His recent return to the NHL gives the team a great chance to have a long look at him over the rest of the season.

3. (4) RW Xavier Bourgault

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Bourgault entered pro hockey with a reputation for being a puck wizard, a volume shooter and a power-play savant. He scored 47 goals per 72 QMJHL games in his final three seasons of junior and has quickly established himself as a potential 20-goal scorer in his first AHL season.

The Oilers sent three men to the AHL this fall, all age 20 and all expected to develop into productive players in pro hockey. Through the first quarter of the season, Bourgault is the class of the group.

None of the three have performed at the same level as Kailer Yamamoto at the same age (.37 goals per game and .59 points per game), but there’s still time for each to establish themselves and find more ice time. Bourgault has been especially productive on the power play (expected) and on the penalty kill (pleasant surprise).

Bourgault is the most obvious candidate to push for a job on one of Edmonton’s skill lines next fall. He is building toward a long NHL look in the next 12 months.

Reid Schaefer (Eric Bolte / USA Today)

4. (NR) LW Reid Schaefer

Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)

Schaefer is 19 and in his second full year of junior hockey, so his story as an Oilers prospect is just getting underway. His skill set is a perfect fit for an Oilers organization that is seeking bigger players who can bring an edge as well as enough skill to play in the big parts of the game.

Schaefer began his draft-plus-one season on fire, scoring 13 goals in his first 10 games. Now at 15-9-24 after 20 games, Schaefer’s 87 shots in those games reflect a big winger who is around the puck a lot and eager to score goals.

The scoring slump (just two goals in 10 games) has been eased by more assists (six of his nine assists have come during the most recent 10-game period) so Schaefer remains a productive player. He can make it to the NHL as a complementary scorer who brings a rugged style, or (if things work out right) he could be that rare big man who can help push the offence as a power forward on a No. 1 line. Schaefer was an outstanding bet at No. 32 in 2022.

5. (16) LW Maxim Berezkin

Yaroslavl Lokomotiv (KHL)

The most difficult player to rank on this list is Berezkin. He’s a talented winger who is playing as a regular in the KHL, one of the best leagues in the world. He’s doing it at 21, and the spike in playing time and offence this season is substantial:

Berezkin is an attractive prospect. He’s 6-foot-3, 216 pounds, has a power forward’s approach to the game and is making progress as a player. The two concerns are foot speed (can he play in the NHL?) and the Oilers’ ability to sign this player. In spite of spending multiple picks on Russians playing in Russia, Edmonton rarely has success with players from this country.

Even when the player signs in North America, the window to make the NHL is small and there’s a chance the player will simply return to the KHL. Konovalov is the most recent example.

Math suggests Edmonton got a good one in Berezkin. He’s a power forward with an edge and real skill. He might play for the Oilers in the next 24 months, or he may never play a game in North America. A major risk-reward prospect for the Oilers.

6. (8) RW Tyler Tullio

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Tullio was a steal on draft day based on the numbers, his scouting report offered a glimpse into a player with a nice range of skills. He posted strong junior numbers, but there was concern this fall because so many young wingers arrived at the same time. Some believed he would get squeezed out of playing time in the AHL.

In 16 games, he has scored 3-3-6 and his shot rage (1.56 shots per game) trails only Bourgault (2.4) among Condors rookies.

Tullio is an aggressive player in puck pursuit and all of his points have come at even strength. That makes him the most successful rookie on the team this season in the discipline. Entering his pro career, he faced stiff competition for playing time. This season in Bakersfield, he’s moved up the depth chart in the early days of the season. He’s No. 5 among Condors forwards in scoring.

7. (5) LW Carter Savoie

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Savoie was slowed by an early injury that cost him all of training camp and some time in the early season. The delay allowed opportunities for other prospects and some veteran AHL wingers.

It left Savoie in no man’s land once he got healthy, and in many ways, he remains there at this time.

In 12 games in the AHL this season, he has two goals and four points. His shots per game (seven shots in 12 games) reflect a depth role and fewer minutes than hoped for entering the season.

Savoie’s game centres around scoring opportunities and his dangerous release. In the game he scored both his goals, Savoie played with veterans Greg McKegg and Seth Griffith.

He retains this ranking based on his established resume, but the Condors need to make room for one of the organization’s true offensive talents in order for him to develop.

8. (6) LW Matvey Petrov

North Bay Battalion (OHL)

Another volume shooter, there were rumours Petrov would join Bourgault, Savoie and Tullio in the AHL for 2022-23. The organization decided against it, sending the first-shot scorer back to junior for one more season. Petrov’s second OHL season is a slight downbeat compared to his rookie year in 2021-22.

Petrov, 19, is slightly off his scoring pace of a year ago. He remains a feature player with the Battalion, but the team’s scoring rate is up slightly year over year and Petrov’s totals are off the pace. His goal scoring and shots per game are also down. It’s a long season, though, and the numbers posted remain solid.

This is a player whose value surrounds the ability to beat goaltenders consistently. The downturn in offence is worth paying attention to, but it’s clear Petrov is among the 10 best prospects in the system.

9. (15) RD Mike Kesselring

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Last year at this time, Kesselring was turning the corner as a prospect. His skating has improved, he is far more involved physically and has developed an agitating edge.

The big story is his goal total. Kesselring has scored eight goals in Bakersfield’s first 18 games. He leads the AHL in goals by a defenceman for the 2022-23 season. All eight goals are at even strength,

His even strength goal differential while he’s on the ice has also improved. In 2020-21, he went 11-13 (46 percent) and flourished (40-30, 57  percent) in 2021-22. The season, his goal differential (11-6, 65 percent) has improved over last year.

Kesselring was a late pick in 2018 (No. 164, sixth round) but he’s developing into a solid NHL prospect. If he continues to improve, Oilers fans could see him on NHL ice for a quick look this season.

10. (12) LD Markus Niemelainen

Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)

Niemelainen is a perfect fit for an Oilers need (big hitter on defence) and has appeared in the NHL over the last two seasons. He is limited in offensive ability, but the big man (6-foot-6, 203 pounds) is mobile and has shown solid (if inconsistent) defensive ability while with the Oilers. His totals over two seasons show both promise and areas for improvement.

Niemelainen has played 35 NHL games and is close to becoming a full-time player with the Oilers. The team has waiver eligibility on him this season but won’t have that luxury next year.

Ranking a player like Niemelainen is difficult, because prospects who don’t bring offence are limited in their value. Niemelainen lands this spot based on two things: His resume (big, mobile, devastating hits) and the Oilers’ need for his player type. I have him after all of the offensive players with a real chance, and before the prospects who possess a major flaw or haven’t played enough since draft day to get a clear picture.

11. (NR) LD Nikita Yevseyev

Ak Bars Kazan (KHL)

It looks like Edmonton’s European scouts may have stolen one in the 2022 draft. Chosen No. 190, Yevseyev is playing third-pairing minutes in the KHL and delivering solid results.

At 6-foot-1, 187 pounds, the 18-year-old is averaging 12:17 minutes a game through 29 contests this year. He has offence (5-1-6) and is posting respectable even strength goal differential numbers (16-10, 62 percent) in his first season in the league.

His foot speed, skill and overall production come as something of a surprise. He was described as more of a shutdown type on draft day, and the numbers reflect it. The offence has him ranked higher than expected, and the organization may have found a gem in Yevseyev.

As is the case with Berezkin, signing this player at the right time (in order to avoid AHL games and a possible return to Russia) may be the most difficult task for Holland and the management team.

Tyler Benson (Eric Hartline / USA Today)

12. (10) LW Tyler Benson

Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)

Benson’s impact rookie season in the AHL is now a distant bell. He’s 37 games into his NHL career and has one goal, three points and plays a depth role. It would be easy to flush Benson from the system, and many observers felt that could happen last summer.

The Oilers signed Benson in the summer to a one-year deal that included a significant ($350,000) amount guaranteed (via PuckPedia). That suggests some level of belief in the player.

Benson enjoyed a strong preseason with Edmonton (scored a goal, played in five games, looked faster) but injury hit (knee) and derailed an impressive audition for a roster spot. The Oilers sent Benson to the minors on a conditioning stint and recalled him before having to place him on waivers.

Edmonton’s handling of this player has a “Holland in Detroit” feel to it. Previous Oilers general managers may not have signed him in the summer, or might have used him in a trade at the deadline. Those things could still happen, but Benson has been part of the Holland Oilers-Condors roster for over three years.

It’s doubtful the team sees Benson as a top-six option, but his passing skills and improved speed may be enough for the team to keep him on the roster. His cap hit is easily managed and he has a skill set that could add some offence to the third or fourth lines.

13. (17) G Olivier Rodrigue

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

One of the biggest movers on this year’s list is also the most unlikely goaltender to emerge from the AHL pack. Rodrigue spent the first two years of his entry-level deal posting pedestrian numbers for Graz EC (Austrian League), the Wichita Thunder (ECHL) and Condors in the AHL. The only time his save percentage peaked out beyond 90 percent came during his 15 games a year ago with the Thunder (.907).

For Oilers fans, the prospect story for a goalie with Rodrigue’s record through two pro seasons was all too familiar. Edmonton’s record with goalies picked in later rounds has been poor.

That backdrop makes Rodrigue’s emergence this season all the more surprising. Starter Calvin Pickard was hurt early in the year, and it was Rodrigue who delivered quality work (2.71 GAA and .920 SV% in nine games). Rodrigue is a smaller goalie (listed at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds) but if he can stop pucks 92 percent of the time in the AHL there may be some NHL games coming his way in the future.

14. (NR) RD Vincent Desharnais

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Desharnais is a giant defenceman (6-foot-6, 215) pounds who may have already made his NHL debut if not for injury. A 2016 draft pick, he worked his way through the system on an AHL deal before landing an NHL contract earlier this year.

He was not ranked on the winter list, but was No. 12 in the summer. The appeal of Desharnais is his condor-like wingspan added to a legit mean streak. On the defensive side of the puck, it’s effective. He is not a fast skater but has improved in this area and should be considered a player who could be recalled at some point this season. Injuries have eaten away at his year, a return to full health followed by 20 strong AHL appearances could get him a call to the NHL.

The most impressive numbers for Desharnais come in even strength goal differential while he’s on the ice. He’s an outscoring monster, exclusively because he suppresses sorties by opposition and guards dangerous areas. The numbers in his Bakersfield seasons are notable, with a stunning 66 percent (68-35) even strength goal share signalling that he’s ready for a look with Edmonton.

15. (NR) RD Max Wanner

Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Wanner is an intriguing prospect who could move up the prospect list in a big way over the course of this season. A bigger frame (6-foot-3, 185 pounds, he is 19), he is mobile and his draft day scouting report suggested Wanner was an effective defender.

His offensive spike this season (5-13-18 in 19 games) builds on a strong second half a year ago and implies the young player has taken a legit step forward. A player at 19 can sometimes deceive in junior hockey, but Wanner was delivering on a wide range of skills in the second half of last season. His spike may be real talent, and with his size and speed he could represent a significant steal based on his draft number (No. 212 in 2021).

He enjoyed an impressive training camp with the Oilers and signed an NHL entry-level deal on Sept. 30. Considering he was drafted the previous July, it’s fair to suggest Wanner has impressed the organization and is in the future plans.

16. (NR) C-LW James Hamblin

Bakersfield Condors (AHL) and Edmonton Oilers (NHL)

One of the great stories in recent Oilers procurement, Hamblin passed through the draft but was identified by team scouts as a worthy target. Hamblin signed an AHL deal, worked his way up the depth chart and finally signed an NHL deal earlier this calendar year.

He recently made his NHL debut, and delivered non-stop energy on the forecheck. He makes deft passes and solid decisions with the puck and has great utility at even strength. In 117 AHL games, he has scored 31 goals, 23 at even strength.

He has barely started his NHL career, and may see several recalls and demotions, but Hamblin is applying for the same job as Benson with a distinct speed and quickness advantage. That depth role could be Hamblin’s ticket to playing in Edmonton.

Raphael Lavoie (Larry MacDougal via AP)

17. (13) RW Raphael Lavoie

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Lavoie is an exceptional first-shot scorer who has had a difficult time translating his game to the AHL level from junior hockey. This isn’t unusual, but for a player who some projected as a first-round talent more was expected.

In 87 AHL regular season games, Lavoie has scored 20 goals on 211 shots. That’s .23 goals per game and 2.4 shots per game in the AHL. Bourgault has played just 18 games with the Condors, and is averaging .28 goals per game and 2.4 shots per game out of the box. Chances are Bourgault will post stronger numbers as a rookie with Bakersfield than Lavoie’s career average.

The trajectory favours Bourgault.

Lavoie suffered a knee injury last season that delayed his 2022-23 debut and he could spike later in the season. If he puts it all together, his shot (it’s a difference-maker) and size (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) offer intriguing possibilities. The competition added this season (Bourgault, Tullio, Klim Kostin) hasn’t helped his chances. Lavoie can be judged a long shot, but the organization is correct in not giving up on him. If he can cobble together a few hot streaks this season, Lavoie will have a chance.

18. (18) RD Phil Kemp

Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

It’s easy to overlook Kemp as a possible NHL defender, but his ability to shut down opponents offence will always have value. He has size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds), surprising offensive ability (3-4-7 in 18 games this season) and his even strength goal differentials (29-25, 53.7 percent a year ago) are solid.

Kemp’s issue is that Kesselring has blossomed as a more dynamic player with a wider range of skills. There are six defencemen ahead of him on the depth chart, three are (like Kemp) right-handed and another (Broberg) is effective playing his off side.

All of which is to say Kemp will turn 24 in February, is in the final year of his entry-level deal and has five right-handed defencemen (NHL and AHL) ahead of him. He’s going to need some luck to have an NHL career based on current performance.

19. (NR) LD Luca Munzenberger

University of Vermont (NCHC)

Munzenberger brings shutdown skills that include speed, intelligence and size (6-foot-2, 200 pounds) in a compelling package. In games against players his own age (world juniors), Munzenberger has an impact.

Until this season, his play at Vermont was more about a teenager being overwhelmed by players who were much older and more mature physically.

This year, his team is still being overwhelmed but Munzenberger is holding his own. He’s even added a little offence (four assists in 12 games) although he isn’t using his strong shot often enough.

College numbers can be deceiving, but Munzenberger’s skills are devoted to coverage and suppression. If the team signs him in the spring, expect Munzenberger to be a big part of the Condors defence a year from now.

20. (20) RW Jake Chiasson

Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)

Chiasson has speed and skill, with the kind of creativity that should allow him to post strong numbers in junior at 19.

His numbers this season (7-12-19 in 25 games) are disappointing compared to last year (6-12-18 in 20 games). The big issue is the team’s scoring per game is way down (from 3.21 last season to 2.69 in 2022-23). Most of that is due to impact players (notably Ridly Greig) graduating to pro hockey, but it’s difficult to get a feel for the kind of offence Chiasson will deliver when he turns pro.

His skill set (aggressive, tenacious, good shot, creative) fits a need for the Oilers. Once he reaches pro, Chiasson will have to score enough to stay in the lineup. A strong second half would allay fears. One thing is certain: He is a young man of good character.

Other names considered for the top 20 were Shane Lachance, Ryan Fanti, Samuel Jonsson, Skyler Brind’Amour and Noah Philp.

Oilers’ winter 2022 top 20 prospects

(Photo of Dylan Holloway: James Carey Lauder / USA Today)