If the Cowboys’ dominant pass rush stops being dominant, is the party over?

Perhaps in a few weeks, this will seem like a wildly unnecessary column.

That’s fine. Sounding alarm bells is not normally my thing.

But, I must at least call your attention to something that is starting to feel a bit disconcerting as the Cowboys head to Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon to start their final four games of the regular season. Three of those final four games are on the road and the fourth one, as you know, is home for the Philadelphia Eagles. When the schedule was released, we were all pretty aware that this could be a very tricky quarter-season.

Road games in this league present challenges that are often unpredictable and make for ugly afternoons of problem solving and divisional road games can be even muddier. Playing at Jacksonville has been on my mind for several weeks as a potential wrestling match with a much-improved Doug Pederson team — especially with the Eagles on everyone’s mind. Playing Tennessee in Nashville on five days’ rest? Not looking forward to that trip, either. Is that final Washington game going to be with the home side’s playoff chances on the line?

Look, the Cowboys may very well be favored in every game left on their schedule. That is interesting to a gambling enthusiast, but to those assuming this year could be different for the Cowboys’ playoff fortunes, losing a few games between here and the start/finish line is not terribly appealing to the vibes.

And if we know anything about the 2022 Dallas Cowboys, we know that the vibes have been created and maintained because Dan Quinn and his pass rush have freaked out opponents at a very high level. In fact, it wasn’t very long ago when I wrote a bye-week story about how this team has the best pass rush in the NFL. It looked at all of the reasons to believe this power was real and the stunting Cowboys were getting home at an unreal rate.

They don’t need to blitz, they just need to allow Micah Parsons and his friends to dominate until the opponent concedes.

It was happening for most of the first half of the season. It may continue until February. But, if it does, we might have to call these last few weeks a period of calm before the storm gets going again.

Because since I wrote that, the Cowboys have played five games and have only exceeded the three-sack barrier in Minnesota. That is just once in their past five games after running off six such performances of four sacks or more in their first eight games.

The table shows what we are looking for by color. The blue boxes demonstrate the two numbers we are shooting for which are four sacks or more or 40 percent pressure rate or more. We could teach a semester on how sack totals are often misleading, but pressure stats are far more reliable as a sign of “affecting the QB” and sustainable metrics of pass-rush success. Pressures don’t satisfy fans as much because we were all raised on sack totals, but coaches would probably prefer the constant siege on the quarterback’s well-being over a few isolated sacks here and there.

Given that we don’t believe writers can influence jinxes, we must assume that the Packers, Giants, Colts and Texans all saw similar things on tape and decided it was very important to make sure that they did not get their QBs demolished. They would fight the Cowboys’ pass rush with quick game, a run-heavy attack and not allow their QBs to stand back there and take a beating. Heck, even in Minnesota, you could see Kirk Cousins was far more interested in watching the pass rushers than he was his own receivers downfield. His game plan didn’t help him as he took seven sacks, but he was definitely aware of what was headed his way as he often threw the ball in a panic that day.

There are a number of ways to counter a great pass rush, but most of them do not lead to victory. This is the dilemma for opponents. You could ask Brian Daboll on Thanksgiving Day if he really thought he was running a game plan to win or to help his QB survive for the rest of the schedule. Same for the Green Bay game plan. They received a jolt from their passing game, but they only attempted 20 passes that game. Houston came in here and played quick game the whole day. They were never going to allow their QB to stand back there and run verticals. They threw a few quick passes, but even those are designed play-action bootlegs that allow a bit more time.

I feel confident in one thing. If the Cowboys are going to do significant damage late this year, that pass rush cannot disappear.

So we return to the question: Are the Cowboys’ pass rushers running out of gas or do they have enough quality, depth and ability to get to the finish line?

Because if they don’t, then the Cowboys are a much different team with a much different upside.

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Let’s look at a few of the key players:

Micah Parsons: He has had an incredible year, but his last few games have been as quiet as he can probably ever be. We know opponents are drawing up plans specifically to slow down Parsons and he often looks a bit banged up and playing with some bumps and bruises. That said, we have to admit that his sack title is fading and maybe so is his chance of Defensive Player of the Year if he doesn’t explode again. We know that this can happen at any second — he is young and terrifying. We also know his trip to Green Bay and the past two games against the Colts and Texans were extremely docile by Parsons’ standards.

DeMarcus Lawrence: With 14 pass pressures in the previous three games and his titanic efforts in the goal-line stand versus Houston, we recognize that Lawrence’s sack total has not grown, but he seems to be playing to his normal standards. They need more and for him to get home, but he looks in decent form.

Dorance Armstrong: He had a huge day in Minnesota and another sack versus the Giants, but in fairness, Armstrong’s form has dropped off considerably since the bye week.

Dante Fowler: Since the bye week, we have hardly heard from Fowler. His snaps are down. The pressures are down and so are the big plays. Not sure if he has fallen out of grace from the coaching staff or if he is dealing with something, but his impact has wavered.

Sam Williams: He is either the solution (youthful legs) or hitting the rookie wall and the Cowboys need to figure out which one is true. He has three TFLs on running plays in the last month, which leads the team.

And pretty much every defensive tackle — Osa Odighizuwa sacked Matt Ryan, but the entire group of tackles does not make plays behind the line of scrimmage enough that the Cowboys notably take them off the field in passing situations. The fact that Donovan Wilson and Jayron Kearse are more likely to get pass pressure as safeties than the entire group of defensive tackles is not ideal, but the Cowboys use what they have in their arsenal.

The Cowboys have not ramped up the blitz at all since the sacks have fallen off and they are still winning games. They have the talent to get to the QB and are playing teams that are willing to sacrifice one thing to get something else. Also, we should understand that if teams want to attack down the field against Kelvin Joseph, they will have to do so at their own quarterback’s risk. It isn’t easy to make this choice if you think you have to score 30 points to keep up with the Cowboys.

The stress isn’t helped at all now that the Cowboys have been passed as the league leaders in sacks. One team has more sacks than the Cowboys, albeit with the slightest of leads. Who is it? Philadelphia. Of course, it is. The Eagles’ pass rush has quietly continued to improve throughout the season. So, the anxieties and fears of chasing down the Eagles in the standings are made even more anxious knowing that they have a pass rush that is just as fearsome, albeit not as publicized.

The solution might be just a game away. The seven sacks against Minnesota demonstrate what the Cowboys are capable of on their day if the opponent doesn’t have solutions. The next Parsons performance might make this column look silly. But, the Jaguars are a top-5 offense in not allowing sacks. Philadelphia will concede more because its QB will run the ball so much, but we all know that what made this team look so fearsome all year has faded in the previous two games.

Dallas cannot afford to fade anymore. If the defense can simply maintain the pace it has set all season, everything will be fine. But, if we have already seen the best of the Cowboys’ defensive dominance, we shudder to think what that might do to the January calendar.

It is simply that vital.

(Top photo of Micah Parsons: George Walker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)