Teams can’t plan the order of their offseason, and they definitely can’t do it specifically to ease the minds of impatient fans. It would have been much, much less stressful for everyone involved if the Giants could have announced the Carlos Correa signing the day after the World Series, but that’s not how these things work.
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This made it harder to evaluate the moves the Giants made before Correa. Even if the moves made sense in isolation, it felt like every paragraph of my analysis started with a yeah-but qualifier. This offseason has been a masterclass for me when it comes to finding different ways to write the same thing.
From the Joc-is-back article:
It’s easy to see how Pederson’s return could be a part of a balanced offseason breakfast, and it’s also easy to see how it could be an unimaginative part of a supremely disappointing offseason.
Also like the Pederson deal, however, this is a deal that comes with a big, flashing sign that reads, “Good move, as long as it’s not the last one.”
The Sean Manaea deal:
… you can see how Manaea fits. He’ll just need more help around him. It’s the story of the offseason.
An as-yet-unpublished look at the Ross Stripling deal, which I filed about five seconds before the Correa news broke, not that I’m bitter:
The roster is better than it was yesterday, and the offseason still has a chance to work.
The Giants have their All-Star now. As long as Correa is healthy, he’s in the lineup. No platoon shenanigans, no mysteries. The Giants have improved their lineup and defense substantially. It’s a lot easier to see how Pederson, Haniger, Manaea and Stripling work. The Giants turned a boring offseason into a fairly amazing offseason, with all of those earlier moves retroactively becoming exciting.
But, at the risk of playing the same tune over and over again, the Giants can’t be done. They probably aren’t done. They still need more help. They can use a dedicated defensive center fielder, they could upgrade the bullpen and there’s still a giraffe-shaped hole at first base.
Here’s a look at what’s left to be done, and it starts with the current state of the 26-man roster.
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C — Joey Bart
C — Backup TBD
INF — Thairo Estrada
INF — J.D Davis
INF — Brandon Crawford
INF – Wilmer Flores
INF — David Villar
SS — Carlos Correa (!)
OF — Joc Pederson
OF — Mike Yastrzemski
OF — Mitch Haniger
1B/OF — LaMonte Wade, Jr.
OF — Austin Slater
SP — Logan Webb
SP — Alex Cobb
SP — Sean Manaea
SP — Ross Stripling
SP — Anthony DeSclafani
RP — Camilo Doval
RP — John Brebbia
RP — Tyler Rogers
RP — Scott Alexander
RP — Jakob Junis
SP/RP — Alex Wood
The Giants signed Alexander to a one-year, $1.15-million deal, so I’m assuming he’s a lock. (He did look really, really good last season.) Relievers not on this list but on the FanGraphs roster include Yunior Marte and Sam Long. This also doesn’t include Tommy La Stella, who would actually be a pretty good fit for this roster if he’s healthy enough to play defense.
That’s 24 players up there, so let’s work with some assumptions.
One assumption is that the Giants will carry a 13-man pitching staff, which is the bare minimum when it comes to modern baseball. I’m not sure if it’s Wood or DeSclafani who moves into a hybrid role, but Wood has the experience there, so he’ll be the placeholder.
Villar. V far. pic.twitter.com/d2MxLJlFda
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 10, 2022
Another assumption is that David Villar will be on the roster. He has options, so it doesn’t have to be the kind of opening-day decision that’s written in stone, but if you go to Baseball-Reference for the 2022 Giants, which has a rogue’s gallery of the top WARs from last season, you’ll see Villar’s mugshot in a Flying Squirrels cap, right between Jakob Junis and Joc Pederson. That’s pretty remarkable for a player who was hitting .157/.310/.257 in the big leagues on Sept. 4, but his finish to the season was just that strong. He hit eight home runs in his final 86 at-bats, and he definitely fills a need on the current roster.
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One more assumption is that the players without options will be up, at least initially. That gives Junis a clear spot, which he earned last season.
The last one is that La Stella is made redundant by Brandon Crawford, who will assume the role of the left-handed infielder who floats around. Maybe the Giants can package La Stella with Will Wilson and send him to the Angels, or maybe he’s just released. This all changes if he shows up to Scottsdale with a spring in his step and an ankle that feels like $18.75 million bucks, but for now let’s assume his spot on the roster is precarious.
Two more players. Now what?
There will be another reliever. Junis and Wood will give the Giants bulk innings, but there should probably be another late-innings guy. There’s room there. There are internal options. But there are also external options. Free agent Taylor Rogers doesn’t just make sense because his brother is on the team, but because he’s a perfect fit for a roster that’s lost José Álvarez to injury and Jarlin García to free agency.
A dedicated center fielder makes sense. Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski can hold their own out there, but they’re legitimate defensive assets in a corner spot.
The problem with these last two ideas is that they contradict each other, at least when it comes to the projected roster. There are already 13 position players, including five outfielders, and that’s without La Stella, so adding a dedicated center fielder brings that number to 14 position players. We know that the Giants will typically have 13 pitchers, so one of the aforementioned 13 position players will have to make room for a center fielder.
Villar has options, so maybe he starts the season in Sacramento.
Wade has a partially guaranteed contract, but if the Giants go in a different direction before Opening Day, they’re not on the hook for all of it.
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There’s also the idea of a trade. Villar does a lot of what Davis can do, so maybe there’s a team that’s more interested in one of them. Wade could certainly fill some gaps on other teams. It might seem heretical to you, but it’s not unthinkable that Yastrzemski is the odd player out, if only because he still has plenty of trade value.
So my official predictions for “What next?” go something like this:
• A reliever. A free agent or a trade target, either way. You’re sick of hearing about Taylor Rogers joining his twin brother, but he’d still probably be the answer without Tyler on the roster. The sibling stuff is just a bonus.
• A defensive-minded center fielder. It probably won’t be an exciting one, and he probably won’t hit much. We’re talking a trade for the Nationals’ Victor Robles or a trade for Cristian Pache when the talks for Ramón Laureano fall through. There’s a chance that Bryan Reynolds is the answer, but that would require a substantial prospect package going the other way, and his defensive metrics are hard to parse. He was one of the best defenders in 2021 and one of the worst in 2022. Good luck figuring that variance out.
• A somewhat-unpopular trade to make room for this center fielder. It’s not going to be Logan Webb for Myles Straw, but it’ll be a trade that stings, if only for a little bit.
• A catcher. This is the most obvious one, as Austin Wynns was solid last year, but he didn’t do enough to convince the Giants that he’s a slam-dunk choice for the backup gig. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Curt Casali is being considered, but the best fits are still left-handed catchers like Tucker Barnhart and Omar Narváez, both of whom bring plenty of defense.
• There probably won’t be a first baseman who isn’t already in the organization. Brandon Belt still fits, but I’m not going to pick that battle today.
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This is the rest of the offseason, and it figures to be ultra-pragmatic. The Giants have their star and they’ve rebuilt their rotation. They have a perfect DH platoon if they choose. They’ll need a catcher, another outfielder and a reliever. It looks pretty simple from here.
(It will not be this simple. Thank goodness we’re not in charge of the whole thing.)
(Photo: Darren Yamashita / Associated Press)
