In theory, the Colts could pursue a non-draft-related approach to fixing their seemingly perpetual quarterback problem. Maybe San Francisco moves on from one of its quarterbacks, or perhaps Green Bay decides between Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love. Hey, Tom Brady is going to be a free agent. Lots of options, as there always seem to be in this volatile league.
But if they do use the draft — and that’s what makes the most sense given their calamitous season and their likely draft position — where do they go from here at the most important position in all of sports?
For answers to that question, I turned to Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s resident NFL Draft guru and author of “The Beast,” the most complete annual draft guide on this or any other planet.
As things stand after the Packers’ Monday night victory over the Rams — and the Colts’ historic collapse Saturday — Indy (4-9-1) stands at No. 6 in the most updated draft order, quite a leap from the 14th spot, where they resided not so long ago.
There are three, maybe four, candidates Brugler views as true contenders for the Colts quarterbacking job. If not necessarily next year, then certainly in the future. They are:
| Quarterback | School | Class / Age in 2023 | Passing yards | Passing TDs | INTs | Completion % | Y/A | Rushing yards | Rushing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Young | Junior / 22 | 3,007 | 27 | 5 | 64.1 | 9.3 | 195 | 4 | |
C.J. Stroud | Junior / 22 | 3,340 | 37 | 6 | 66.2 | 9.4 | 74 | 0 | |
Will Levis | Senior / 24 | 2,406 | 19 | 10 | 65.4 | 8.5 | -107 | 2 | |
Anthony Richardson | Sophomore / 22 | 2,549 | 17 | 9 | 53.8 | 7.8 | 654 | 9 |
The first three are no-brainer picks in the top half of the first round of the draft. Anthony Richardson, as Brugler wrote, is the “wild card.”
“At 6-4 and 235 pounds, (Richardson) is a freak show,” Brugler wrote in an email. “Runs faster than safeties and has an elite arm with his release and velocity.
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“However, his decision-making and accuracy are very volatile on tape. He was only a one-year starter and still very young, so he should get better in those areas, but how much better? He has a huge ceiling, but what are the odds he gets there? And how long will it take?
“The answers to those questions will be different from team to team. The interview process will be an important step for teams to understand just how far along he is in terms of reading defenses, understanding protections and simply running an offense. He could go top-10 or be drafted on Day 2, and neither outcome would be surprising.”
There are no sure things at the top of the draft, but Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Will Levis are far closer to sure things — and day-one starters — than Richardson.
“The skinny on Young is straightforward,” Brugler wrote. “He is a complete outlier in terms of his size. Of the 301 quarterbacks drafted over the last 25 years, only two were under 5-11 and 200 pounds (like Young), and neither were drafted top-100. But if you are OK with his lack of size, he will be your No. 1 quarterback in the draft. He has outstanding instincts, processing and accuracy. He needs to do a better job avoiding hits, but the best way I can sum him up: He’s a problem-solver.”
On Stroud: “He’s at his best in the pocket. He is a rhythm passer and very structurally sound to carve up the defense when everything goes according to plan. The main concern is he doesn’t play nearly as comfortable or productive outside of structure when things break down. He has athleticism, but doesn’t rely on his legs to make plays. As a passer, Stroud is an NFL starter, but NFL quarterbacks must also be creators, and that is the question mark with him.”
On Levis: “Levis is the prototype in several desirable physical categories: size, arm strength, mobility, toughness, durability. He has shown improvement with his footwork and accuracy, but he still needs to see things faster and play with better anticipation to thrive in the NFL. There are plenty of question marks, but it’s not hard to understand the optimism about his potential. His lightning release and competitive nature will be catnip for scouts.”
I asked Brugler about our colleague Austin Mock’s latest draft model, in which he projected Levis to go to the Colts at No. 7, where they were positioned at the time of his mock.
“The Levis evaluation is tough because based on the 2021 film, I thought he was on the top-10 trajectory with a very promising skill set,” Brugler wrote. “However, he didn’t take a noticeable jump on the 2022 film — and there are several contributing factors. He lost his offensive coordinator (Liam Coen) to the NFL, and his replacement (Rich Scangarello) was already fired. There was a lot of turnover on the offensive line after the 2021 season and he lost his top target (second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson). The toughest part of quarterback evaluation is separating the excuses from the reasons. While Levis didn’t play exceptionally well as a senior, there were contributing factors that played a part.
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“For evaluators who put a heavy emphasis on college production, they will be understandably skeptical about Levis, who had only one game with 250-plus passing yards in 15 starts versus SEC competition. For evaluators who trust the traits, they will have much more optimism for Levis’ NFL transition. The pre-draft process from the Senior Bowl to the combine to individual workouts and meetings should help the Colts better understand if Levis is worth a pick in the top 10.”
So is there an expected draft order for these three (and possibly four) quarterbacks? In Brugler’s mind, it’s a matter of taste. Some will get comfortable with Young’s size; others will dismiss him. Some will view Levis’ less-than-stellar college season as an outlier; others will accept that he was surrounded by average talent at Kentucky.
“There will not be a consensus from NFL teams on how these quarterbacks should be drafted,” Brugler wrote. “Right now, Levis is viewed as the top quarterback for several teams, and that likely won’t change. I know several scouts who stamped big grades on Young, but will the coaching staff and owner sign off on a player his size? And like I mentioned with Stroud, he is not universally loved around the league — some believe he will be a top-10 pick while others aren’t as optimistic.
“We could see multiple quarterbacks go in the top-five picks. But it also shouldn’t surprise anyone if the order these quarterbacks come off the board is more similar to 2017 when one quarterback went top-five (Mitchell Trubisky) and two went in the 10 to 12 range (Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson).
“Basically, it is too early to say with any confidence just how early these quarterbacks will be drafted and in what order.”
All three top prospects can start on day one; that doesn’t mean they’ll play particularly well. The learning curve is steep. Remember, Peyton Manning’s Colts went 3-13 his rookie season (1998), and he set the rookie record for interceptions.
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“Most rookies aren’t ‘ready’ to be immediate NFL starters when you consider everything that is being put on their plate,” Brugler wrote. “Some rookies are best off being eased into a situation. However, most teams don’t truly know until training camp. That sounds like a cop-out answer, but that’s the same answer I’ve heard from NFL GMs and head coaches. Every player reacts differently to the speed of the NFL and the environment of a veteran locker room. But there is no substitute for experience.
“So even if a player is drafted to a situation with a ‘bridge’ quarterback, young quarterbacks need to see the field to make actual improvements. The only way for Levis to play faster is to actually be on the field to best understand that. And a team must be willing to take their lumps in the process — the Bears have a dismal 5-18 record with Justin Fields as the starter, but it’s what is required for the quarterback to show progress.”
The Colts figure to have that bridge quarterback in-house; Matt Ryan still has a year remaining on his contract, if they have any desire to keep him around another year and let him help mentor a young successor.
Clearly, though, it’s past time to be going the Band-Aid route. If general manager Chris Ballard hangs on to his job, he knows his legacy and his future will be largely determined by whom he drafts at QB and how well he plays. He knows the Colts can’t keep kicking the can down the road. Because that is a road paved with nothing but more disappointment.
(Top photo of Will Levis: Jordan Prather / USA Today)