The Cowboys’ chances of catching Philadelphia in the NFC East standings pretty much came to an end Sunday as the Eagles improved to 13-1 and Dallas dropped to 10-4. But the last thing the Cowboys want to do is back into the playoffs searching for answers on defense and struggling to take care of the ball on offense.
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Dallas is expected to be favored in its final three regular-season games. Take care of business and a fifth seed in the playoffs will likely follow. That would then mean a wild-card matchup on the road against the NFC South champion. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers lead that division at 6-8. The Panthers, Saints and Falcons are all tied for second at 5-9. The Cowboys should be favored against any of those four.
To assess where Dallas is and to take a look into the future, Cowboys writers Jon Machota and Bob Sturm shared their opinions while answering the following five questions.
1. After escaping the Texans and then losing on the road to the Jaguars in OT, on a scale of 1 to 10, what should the panic level be for Cowboys fans right now?
Machota: I’d put it at a 5. It’s concerning because of the time of year. They need to be playing closer to their best than their worst in December. And it’s easy to watch and think this is the same as last year: hot start and then cool down the stretch, ultimately leading to an early playoff exit. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy insists they will learn and benefit from how they’ve closed out these last two games. This is still a very good team, probably the third best in the NFC, behind the Eagles and 49ers. But there’s no question they need to play better, particularly on defense, during these last three regular-season games.
Sturm: It is a difficult call because I look at the standings and say it might not even be the 5 that Jon is saying. But then I try to reasonably assess what we know and what we fear, and I can dial it up to a 7 or 8 pretty easily. We are not seeing good signs from this defense, and as I argued last week, if this pass rush turns back into a fairly normal one that the Cowboys had in 2021 and not the superpower it seemed to be through Thanksgiving, then they are not nearly as in this Super Bowl chase as we thought. Attrition is starting to hit the defense, and the turnovers still plague the offense. I like to have a steady hand at the helm, but they are not making that easy at the moment.
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2. The game this week against the Eagles doesn’t look as big as it did a week ago. What is the one thing you’d like to see most out of the Cowboys on Saturday?
Machota: A solid defensive performance. Obviously not looking for a shutout, but sound tackling and limiting big plays. I could say no interceptions from Dak Prescott, but if the defense had played to its capabilities in the fourth quarters at Green Bay and Jacksonville, the Cowboys would be riding an eight-game winning streak and Saturday’s game would be for first place in the division and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Dallas defense was outstanding at Minnesota, the week after losing at Green Bay. Play like that against Philadelphia and it will be much easier to move past what we saw at Jacksonville.
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Sturm: You just need to see them play well on both sides of the ball in a way that restores the sort of swagger they had a few weeks back. This is a very good football team and one that can absolutely play well against a team like Philadelphia, but that is pretty tough if you are harboring doubts at this level. They need to restore order defensively and stay on target on offense with their general approach to suffocating an opponent. If the Eagles waltz in and throw the furniture around your place for Christmas, the panic levels will be high and self-doubt will be loud.
3. You’ve watched the Cowboys play 14 games this season. If they could strengthen one position — and only one — which one would you strengthen and why?
Machota: Cornerback. I believe they can get enough from CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, T.Y. Hilton and the tight ends to produce in the passing game. I think Tyron Smith will be just fine at right tackle. But that other outside corner spot opposite Trevon Diggs is a real issue. With Anthony Brown done for the season, Kelvin Joseph has not been the answer and Nahshon Wright might not be, either. That could force Dallas to turn to Trayvon Mullen, Mackensie Alexander, Kendall Sheffield or someone not currently in the building. Rookie DaRon Bland seems best suited to play on the inside. The Cowboys need someone else to emerge on the outside.
Sturm: Jon has the right answer here, so let me offer another one to spur on conversation. I have real concerns about the linebacker position, and it is largely because Leighton Vander Esch’s availability is in great doubt and Micah Parsons is the key to making this pass rush what it needs to be. I haven’t been filled with belief in the quality of this group recently with young Damone Clark and Anthony Barr playing most of the situations and showing vulnerabilities. This goes back to the principle issue — do they actually have a top defense or do they simply have a couple of top pieces that disguise being ordinary in so many spots? I think we are starting to get that answer.
4. When T.Y. Hilton gets on the field for the Cowboys, what are realistic expectations?
Machota: Around three catches per game. I don’t think the stats will necessarily be anything crazy, but I think the impact could come in huge moments. Let’s say on a crossing route in overtime on third-and-4. I expect him to pick up the offense pretty quickly and take advantage of favorable matchups. Third downs and red zone are where I believe his impact will be felt most. I expect Lamb to remain Prescott’s favorite target and tight end Dalton Schultz to continue being his No. 2. But Hilton could end up being quarterback-friendly enough to climb into the No. 3 spot by January.
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Sturm: I have optimism here and, honestly, it is more of a presence thing as a coverage magnet than it is about numbers. I am not suggesting that I would go sign him quickly for a fantasy run because obviously it is tough for a QB and wide receiver to get a relationship going in December if they have never worked together. But make no mistake, this is a known quantity in the NFL and defensive backs know that Hilton is a problem. That alone will attract a safety and give others a little more space. Imagine Lamb with a little more space these days. He doesn’t need too much to cause massive problems.
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5. Rank your three most important players for the Cowboys to make a deep playoff run.
Machota: No. 1 Dak Prescott, No. 2 Micah Parsons, No. 3 Trevon Diggs. The first two were easy. The final spot came down to Diggs, Lamb and Tyron Smith. They are so weak at the other outside corner position that it could be an absolute disaster in the secondary if they were also without Diggs. They’d be in a lot of trouble in the passing game without Lamb, considering all of the attention he receives. Without Smith, right tackle would be back to a rotation between Jason Peters and Josh Ball. If Peters could play an entire game and then do it again a week later for an entire month, I’d feel differently. But that doesn’t seem realistic at this time.
Sturm: Micah Parsons, Dak Prescott, DeMarcus Lawrence. I really think the Cowboys need these three very important guys to be their best. For Parsons, that means playing at a Nick Bosa level every week. Prescott needs to keep getting this team 34 points per game as the top-scoring team in the NFL and make sure any turnovers are not backbreakers. I am not one to mind breaking a few eggs if I am getting a five-touchdown omelet, but the past two weeks have seen critical and game-altering moments. And for Lawrence, we know he is not at his peak, but they need him to find that next gear. If he can, with Parsons doing his thing, it should be difficult to take this team down.
(Top photo of DeMarcus Lawrence: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)