The Cleveland Cavaliers have experienced a successful first 36 games of the 2022-23 NBA season. They posted a 22-14 record and are sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference as of Dec. 30.
The blockbuster trade for Donovan Mitchell in September has proven its worth. Mitchell’s presence on the court and in the locker room has elevated Cleveland’s play, all while they continue to build on the defensive foundation laid by last year’s team. The Cavaliers have also struggled at times; they have dropped three games in a row, their second losing run this season.
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As we close out 2022 and head into 2023, let’s make some predictions for the second half of the season. Last year, I went 2-for-7 on my predictions, which is not great. Hopefully, my percentage will be better this year. Remember, this is intended to be fun! Have a safe and Happy New Year!
Donovan Mitchell will be named an All-Star starter
Mitchell has been named to the All-Star Game three times in his first six years and should earn his fourth nomination after his career-best start with the Cavs this season. Mitchell is averaging a career-high 28.4 points per game, shooting career highs at 48.8 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from 3.
While Mitchell will have already made his much-awaited return to Utah on Jan. 10, coming back to Salt Lake City as an All-Star starter will be a memorable occasion for him.
Evan Mobley will be named a first-time All-Star
Many continue to believe that Mobley should have been the Rookie of the Year last year instead of Toronto’s Scottie Barnes. They also believe that Mobley is the player that will take Cleveland to the next level.
Through 36 games, Mobley is averaging 14.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting 55.7 percent from the field. There have been moments and certain fourth quarters throughout this season where Mobley has been the best player for Cleveland, whether he’s made his biggest impact grabbing critical offensive rebounds, setting up a teammate with an assist or nailing a 3 like this one against the Orlando Magic.
“It’s an extremely unique situation for a guy of his age, and even last year, to come in and impact winning the way that he does,” coach J.B. Bickerstaff said earlier this month. “He does not care about stats; he does not care about numbers and averages and all the petty shit that some guys get caught up in. The only thing he cares about is helping his team win.”
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Because of these factors, Mobley will be named a first-time All-Star. His all-around, diverse impact on a nightly basis has helped the Cavs surge up the East standings, and coaches will notice that and vote him in to represent Cleveland in the All-Star game.
The Cavs will not make a major move before the trade deadline
I could see a smaller move by the time the trade deadline rolls around on Feb. 9. But the Cavs won’t be able to make any major changes to their roster.
With their frontcourt and backcourt pretty set in stone, Cleveland could look to make a change at small forward. They also need more shooting. But finding these qualities this season will be difficult for the Cavs because they don’t have first-round picks available to attach in a trade. They’re also close to the luxury tax, sitting just $2.5 million below the line.
With those factors in mind, the Cavs could make a small roster move, but nothing major that will significantly impact their season. Instead, I predict the Cavs ride out the season with their current roster, relying on the play of their young guys and the star power of Mitchell, Mobley, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen.
The Cavs will end the season with a winning road record
After losing to the Indiana Pacers Thursday night, the Cavs are just 6-10 on the road, a sharp contrast to their 16-4 record at home. That means they’ll need to win 15 of their final 25 road contests to achieve a .500 record away from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.
Coach J.B. Bickerstaff recently said the Cavaliers must figure out how to finish games on the road and stick to their style of basketball. The players know it, too. Jarrett Allen acknowledged how important it is to get it right on the road.
“It’s big,” Allen said recently. “We have aspirations to be in the playoffs. Half, or more than half, of our games could be on the road in the playoffs. So it’s something that we’d rather figure out now, than have to worry about when the time comes.”
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As the calendar flips to 2023 and the Cavs go on a five-game road trip to the Western Conference in early January, they will begin to figure out their road struggles and come away with victories. They will learn how to start games out with a strong defensive presence, play their brand of basketball from there and close out games in fourth quarters.
The Cavs will make it to the second round of the playoffs
The Cavs currently sit fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 22-14 record, but have looked like one of the top teams in the league. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR and ELO models each project the Cavaliers to finish with a 47-35 record, good for fifth in the East, with a 90 and 89 percent chance of making the playoffs, respectively. FiveThirtyEight also projects Cleveland to finish fifth in the East.
Through the first three months of the season, the Cavs have flashed moments of looking like a playoff-ready team. They’ve used their defensive identity to dominate on that end of the floor, and Mitchell’s presence in the backcourt has brought a level of shot-making they lacked last season.
In order for Cleveland to be successful in the playoffs, the Cavs will also rely on the playoff experience of Mitchell and Kevin Love, as well as Allen and Caris LeVert, to a lesser extent. Garland and Mobley, the two young stars who have yet to reach the playoffs, will gain the necessary experience and take another step forward.
Kevin Love will re-sign with the Cavs this summer
Love is in the final year of his four-year, $120 million contract, so he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. I predict he will re-sign with Cleveland to finish out his career as a member of the Cavs.
As The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd recently wrote, there is mutual interest in this outcome between the Cavs and Love. Love has excelled since accepting a role change last season to come off the bench and play fewer minutes. He’s stayed healthy, only missing games due to time in health and safety protocols, and provided a veteran spark for the second unit. He played with a level of joy he hadn’t shown since LeBron James left in 2018, and has frequently referenced how much he loves playing with this young core over the past season and a half.
(Photo of Evan Mobley: Lauren Bacho / NBAE via Getty Images)