Anyone who has won — or lost — because of a backdoor cover knows that you can’t count a result until the final whistle. The same could be said about a season record. It’s Week 17, the calendar is shifting to 2023 and the record is almost etched in stone. Almost.
Can I push above 60 percent against the spread? (I’m at 58.6 percent on the season.) Can I stay above .500 with my player props and overall mark? And can the moneyline picks be stricken from the record?
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Two more weeks, 12 more bets. There’s still time to change the result. Let’s see what this week’s slate offers:
Last week’s record: 3-3 overall; 2-2 versus the spread; 0-1 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 1-0 on player props.
Season record: 48-45-3 overall; 36-25-3 (58.6 percent) versus the spread; 3-13 in the upset pick on the moneyline; 9-7 on player props.
Premier Sunday afternoon game: Vikings +3 at Packers
I keep hearing about the Vikings’ inflated record and I recognize the point differential of plus-five is uninspiring, as is their DVOA ranking of No 22. But it’s Week 17 and teams don’t win 12 games by accident. The Packers make sense as a straight-up pick in a must-win game when they’ve been playing well, although if you give me three points for a 12-win team that still has something to play for, I’ll take it. (Admittedly, I liked this line better when it was 3.5 points on Thursday.) I trust Green Bay at home in December, when they’ve won their last 14 games. This line simply strikes me as a good value for a team that’s undervalued.
Pick of the week: Jets -1.5 at Seahawks
As discouraging as this four-game losing streak has been for the Jets, the Seahawks have also faded with losses in five of six games. Seattle has been held to 23 total points during the past two games. The Jets can at least use their quarterback as an excuse; the offense has been better with Mike White, who is back on Sunday. They still have a defense ranked No. 6 in DVOA. In four games against opponents ranked in the top 10 in DVOA, Seattle is averaging 14 points. That won’t be enough this weekend. The Seahawks are likely getting Tyler Lockett back on offense, but the defense allowed 27.6 points per game during the last five weeks. That could be too leaky to beat the Jets.
Underdog on the moneyline: Browns +105 at Commanders
Upsets are especially hard to find this time of year when teams are more clearly defined, but Cleveland stood out on this slate. The Browns rank No. 12 in DVOA while Washington ranks No. 19. Cleveland is 3-2 outright this season when it’s been an underdog by fewer than four points, and the Commanders just benched their quarterback and are turning back to Carson Wentz. Full transparency here: We’re 17 weeks in, and these moneyline picks haven’t gone well. Underdogs are 82-155-2 (36 percent) outright this year, and I’ve been under the season average in this category. Still, the Browns appear to be the best bet of the underdogs.
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Sunday prime-time game: Steelers +2 at Ravens
I expected to go with Baltimore until Lamar Jackson was declared out. The Ravens could still win — especially at home and with their defense — but I like going with the underdogs in these types of games. (Admittedly, I would have liked this more when the line was at 2.5.) The Ravens won by two points (in Pittsburgh) in Week 14 and the average margin of victory in the last five meetings between these two teams is three points. Three of those games were played with points in the teens, which is where both teams have also resided recently; Baltimore has reached the 20s just once in its past six games and Pittsburgh just once in its past four games. The over/under is 35, which is the lowest on the entire schedule. I picked the Ravens without the spread, but it’s better to take the points in a low-scoring game.
Monday prime-time game: Bills -1 at Bengals
The point spread is too low to get cute, so the question is who do I think will win the game? As impressive as Cincinnati has been, the injury to La’el Collins is a factor that cannot be ignored. Joe Burrow (and his weapons) can move the ball against Buffalo’s secondary if he has time. Pay attention to third downs. The Bills’ defense forces teams into third-and-longs — their opponents’ average distance to first down is 7.9 yards, which is the longest in the NFL. This is a toss-up and I don’t like picking against Burrow (he’s 12-1 against the spread in his last 13 games), but I have more confidence in the Bills in a shootout with the way Josh Allen can run and pass.
Player prop: Saints TE Juwan Johnson over 28.5 receiving yards
Johnson has missed this mark in two of his past three games, although he’s hit it in nine games this season. The weakness in the Eagles’ pass defense is in the middle of the field, and they’ll play without safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and slot cornerback Avonte Maddox on Sunday. Johnson has also spent time as the Saints’ slot receiver. Opposing tight ends have topped this mark seven times this season, including two of the Eagles’ four games without Gardner-Johnson.
(Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)