Who will win the national championship? Our staff makes its picks for Georgia vs. TCU

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 31: Quarterback Max Duggan #15 of the TCU Horned Frogs gestures the Go Frogs Hand sign after the College Football Playoff Semifinal Fiesta Bowl football game against the Michigan Wolverines at State Farm Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. The TCU Horned Frogs won 51-45. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
By The Athletic Staff
Jan 8, 2023

Follow Georgia vs TCU College Football National Championship Game live

The National Championship Game is here. It’s the defending champ (Georgia) against the ultimate surprise team (TCU). The game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday and will be broadcast by ESPN.

Who will win? And why? Some members of our non-college football staff make their picks:

Nick Baumgardner (Senior NFL writer): Georgia

TCU is much more talented than the average fan might think, and Max Duggan is the toughest quarterback in college football. This can be a game if Georgia keeps the door cracked. But the Bulldogs have better players and more depth and will dictate how this goes.

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Jordan Bianchi (Motorsports reporter): Georgia

Throughout the season, the Horned Frogs have shown they have a team that cannot be dismissed, routinely winning games by overcoming multiple double-digit deficits. That said, Georgia is far and away the best team in the country and presents a matchup problem for TCU. The Horned Frogs will keep it close for a bit, but in the end, the Bulldogs will run away to secure their second straight title.

Robert Biertempfel (Pittsburgh Pirates beat writer): Georgia

I’m a Big Ten snob, but I’ve grown accustomed to seeing the B1G rep bend the knee every January in the College Football Playoff. It happened again last weekend. Yay. I went into this bowl season expecting — maybe even kinda sorta rooting for — Georgia to win it all, even though it means my colleague C. Trent Rosecrans will be absolutely insufferable when we meet in the press box this summer while covering Reds-Pirates games.

Dane Brugler (NFL Draft staff writer): Georgia

After it played catch-up for most of the game against Ohio State, I expect Georgia to get an early lead against TCU and pull away in the second half. TCU has the talent to compete with Georgia — surprisingly, the Horned Frogs might have more draft picks in April than the Bulldogs. But TCU will need its top players, specifically Duggan, to play mistake-free if it is going to pull off the upset.

Kirby Smart’s Georgia team will play for its second straight national title Monday night. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

Richard Deitsch (Sports media reporter): Georgia

God, I love underdog stories. The U.S. beating the Russians in hockey at the 1980 Winter Olympics. Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson. The Skywalker kid blowing up the Death Star. Man, TCU is an incredible story. Feels like destiny. Oh, well, I’m going to do it. … Georgia by 17.

Jason Jones (Culture staff writer): TCU

Sonny Dykes coached my alma mater, Cal, and our offense hasn’t been the same without him. So for old times’ sake, I’d like to see TCU drop 50 on Georgia and think about the possibility of Cal’s offense under former Dykes assistant Jake Spavital in his return to Cal. So, my prediction isn’t about what’s rational; it’s about giving me hope: TCU.

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Josh Kendall (Atlanta Falcons beat writer): Georgia

The Bulldogs should have learned their lesson after a flat performance against Ohio State. TCU will keep it close for a half because Duggan will get outside of Georgia’s rush plan often enough and because its receivers can make a few plays against an OK-but-not-great Bulldogs secondary. But Georgia already has handled the tougher of its two Playoff opponents.

Cooper Klaus (Data analyst, Audience): Georgia

Georgia probably has too much of a talent advantage for TCU to overcome. While the Horned Frogs have been an incredible story, without two pick sixes and an overturned touchdown at the 1-inch line versus Michigan, they probably aren’t here. I can’t imagine that luck will continue, and now they’re even bigger underdogs, so I’m going with Georgia.

Brendan Marks (Duke and UNC beat writer): Georgia

I’d love for TCU to finish this miracle run and upset Georgia, winning the most unlikely national title in the modern era … but sadly, rooting for the best story doesn’t always play itself out. Duggan and company will put up some points (another Quentin Johnston house call, anyone?), but I’m afraid Georgia’s depth on offense and defense will be too much for the Horned Frogs to overcome. Make it two in a row for the Dogs, who can probably go ahead and start construction on that inevitable Kirby Smart statue.

Joe Rexrode (Nashville columnist): Georgia

The physicality the Horned Frogs displayed on offense and defense against Michigan was a big surprise, and that’s a key part of how they pulled off the upset even though Duggan and the passing game weren’t consistently in sync. Duggan’s absolute best, throwing and running, will be necessary for the Horned Frogs to have a chance to complete this astounding journey on top. Even then, Stetson Bennett isn’t likely to gift them two touchdowns like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy did. Bennett is likely to make a lot of big plays, as McCarthy did. Bulldogs in a comfortable win.

C. Trent Rosecrans (Cincinnati Reds beat writer): Georgia

Not only do the Bulldogs win, but somehow Stetson Bennett IV also unlocks an achievement that gives him more eligibility and becomes the Tom Brady of college football, racking up 10 more titles, becoming the first five-time Heisman Trophy winner and retiring only when Stetson Bennett V is ready to take over QB duties. (Editor’s note: Rosecrans is a UGA graduate.)

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Ric Sanchez (Social team): TCU

Why I am picking TCU: In a sport as silly and glorious and random as college football, why not pick TCU? If rooting for a program whose primary color is purple and whose mascot is a frog that shoots blood out of its eyes is wrong, I don’t want to be right.

Damon Sayles (Culture Senior Editor): TCU

Why pick TCU? Why not TCU? A good offense. A bend-but-don’t-break defense. A team playing with nothing to lose. It’ll make for a good movie when the Horned Frogs pull it off.

Jeff Schultz (Atlanta columnist): Georgia

This is not going to be an enjoyable week of film for Georgia defensive players. The line struggled to get consistent pressure on Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud in the Peach Bowl, and coverage in the secondary was equally dreadful. Stroud and Ohio State’s receivers are a tough matchup for any team, but I suspect the Bulldogs defense will play better against TCU, and that ultimately will be the difference. The Bulldogs will win by more than a touchdown.

Jason Starrett (NFL Deputy Managing Editor): Georgia

The TCU defense has been at its best when it creates pressure this season, ranking among the top four nationally in pass efficiency (61.8; third) and yards per attempt allowed (3.5; fourth) when it hits or hurries the opposing quarterback. The bad news? The Georgia offensive line has allowed pressure at the second-lowest rate in the nation (18.6 percent of dropbacks), and when the Horned Frogs haven’t pressured the QB, their defense ranks 32nd in pass efficiency (133.7) and 82nd in yards per attempt allowed (7.8). Bennett has been among the nation’s best passers from a clean pocket the past two years (nation’s fourth-best pass efficiency when not pressured since 2021; 179.2) and will thrive if he has time to find his playmakers.

Nate Tice (NFL staff writer): Georgia

The Georgia defense goes from facing an explosive Ohio State offense to an explosive TCU offense. But this unit has talent all over, and if it can limit those big plays (which is an if, because you never know when Quentin Johnston will come alive), it has the talent to win the war of attrition in an efficiency battle. On the other side, the Georgia offense still has the talent — especially at tight end — and a quarterback to handle the operation with experience in these big games. I see TCU getting in a couple of big shots early but Georgia battling back with jabs before simply overwhelming the Horned Frogs with haymakers as the game wears on.

(Top photo of Max Duggan: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)

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