The first trade of the season affects more than only two teams.
The New York Knicks were not in play for fourth-year forward Rui Hachimura, who the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Monday. But every deal ripples to the rest of the league.
It’s time to talk about Cam Reddish, whose hypothetical trip to L.A. (or anywhere else) could be a tad more complicated now that the Lakers acquired another former lottery pick. And like it often does, the first deal of significance in 2022-23 has set the market for players in similar situations to Hachimura.
Advertisement
Both Hachimura and Reddish are in the final years of their rookie contracts. Both were top-10 draft picks in 2019. Only a year ago, the Washington Wizards were still lauding Hachimura as a significant part of their core. Yet on Monday, they sent him away for three second-rounders and Kendrick Nunn, a formerly fiery scorer who acted mostly as salary filler. That can’t help the market for a player like Reddish, who is at a similar career point but also is as far out of his coach’s rotation as a player can reach.
The Knicks have expressed to certain teams they want two second-round picks in exchange for Reddish, league front-office sources told The Athletic. Sources from other organizations have said they believe New York is more amenable to taking back only one second-rounder for the 23-year-old. If Hachimura, a regular contributor in Washington, commands three second-round picks (with two of them far into the future and one of them bound for the 50s), then a couple of seconds for Reddish becomes even more ambitious.
The Hachimura trade could take the Lakers, who have considered dealing for Reddish, out of the market for him, too, though the Feb. 9 deadline is far enough away that anything can happen. Because of salary-matching rules, Nunn was the piece Los Angeles could have used to acquire a Hachimura- or Reddish-type contract. Now, he is headed to Washington, and the Lakers are left with a bunch of too-small or too-big contracts to flip for Reddish straight up.
It’s still possible for the Lakers to construct a Reddish trade; the finances just aren’t as easy.
It’s not like the Lakers are the only team that has contacted New York about Reddish. Maybe the Knicks come to a point where they take whatever they can get for him. After all, there are more niche reasons that his trade value could be falling (more on this later).
Advertisement
“What could the Knicks get back for Reddish?” is one of 10 questions the team has to answer leading into Feb. 9. Here are the other nine:
What are the goals?
Do the Knicks want to upgrade the current roster? Do they want to shoot for the No. 6 seed, which would mean rising above the Play-In Tournament, or would a pesky finish in the seven-to-10 range still be sufficient?
Do they want to acquire draft picks and not worry about the present as much? Do they want to trade one or two picks for a player who can help now? If they trade a pick, would it have to be for someone with multiple years remaining on his contract?
Do they believe they must deal Reddish, who hasn’t played in almost two months, at any cost? Where do they stand on sending out the veterans not in their rotation, Derrick Rose and Evan Fournier?
How do they rate their young guys? Do they believe the current core is only one star short of contention? Or is it two stars short? And if it’s only one, who is the star, and how can they make sure negotiations prove more fruitful than the ones for Donovan Mitchell?
Set the goals and then craft the plan.
Where do they stand with Immanuel Quickley?
It wasn’t long ago that the Knicks were actively listening to offers for Quickley. They had proposed trade constructions to other front offices. They had set a value on a solo deal for him. They wanted a first-round pick in return, league sources told The Athletic in early December.
Oh, how quickly things can shift in the NBA.
The Knicks have changed their tune on Quickley in recent weeks, according to teams in contact with them. New York is now far more resistant to move a third-year guard who has cemented himself as one of the group’s most important players over the past two months. The Knicks started the season 10-13 and now sit at 25-23. Quickley has become one of head coach Tom Thibodeau’s most trusted players over this 15-10 stretch.
Advertisement
There were teams with a legitimate interest in Quickley back when the Knicks were listening to offers more intently. I heard multiple decision-makers from other organizations lust over his impressive plus-minus numbers, which they believe paint him as a defensive maestro. But momentum has certainly spun in the opposite direction of a trade — though (and this is always a necessary disclaimer with more than two weeks to go until the deadline), anything can happen.
If they hold onto him, it means a new Quickley-related question would arise on Feb. 10:
How much should the Knicks offer him when he becomes eligible for an extension this upcoming summer?
Is it worth trading one or two first-round picks for someone who makes the Knicks immediately better but not good enough to be a contender?
Call this the Bojan Bogdanović conundrum.
The Detroit Pistons are dangling their 20-point scorer, but it’s not like they’ve signaled they’re willing to give him away. It seems the Pistons want a strong first-round pick for the 33-year-old, who just added two extra seasons onto his contract. Detroit may be at the bottom of the conference, but it’s in no rush to deal him.
Bogdanovic would help the Knicks. He’s an efficient scorer, a 40-percent 3-point shooter and a reliable defender. He has playoff experience. He could play the three or the four. He’d add bench depth. But is that worth it for a team that’s saving up its first-round picks for a hopeful star trade down the line? And even if the Knicks could acquire someone of Bogdanovic’s ilk (whether that’s him or Gary Trent Jr. or another starting-caliber player whose name is currently out of the rumor mill) for just their 2023 first-rounder, is it worth the risk?
What if the Knicks don’t protect the pick, miss the playoffs and the selection leaps into the top four in the lottery? Just about every arrow since Leon Rose took over the front office has pointed to the Knicks yearning for star power. They’d have to protect the pick, but doing so (even lightly) could inhibit their ability to trade more first-rounders in later seasons, which means they might have to kiss a star trade away all because they wanted an extra high-end role player.
Advertisement
Would they deem that worth it, even if the trade turns into a net positive without the greater context?
Such is the conundrum. The Knicks want to make the playoffs and it may take an upgrade to get there. If that’s the case, the front office needs to decide what it’s willing to part with to improve.
Is there a move that positions them for a star trade in the upcoming summer?
If the Knicks make a move that seems like a step back, it might be because they believe it will help them take one forward soon.
Think about the way they operated on 2022 draft night, when they flipped the No. 11 selection for three future first-rounders, a move that cost them a player in the present but brought them three more future picks to add to their arsenal. The Knicks believed those future first-rounders, the mere idea of players, would be more valuable in a potential star trade.
If something similar presents itself leading up to the deadline, it wouldn’t be out of character for the organization to pull the trigger, even if the specificities are impossible to predict.
How do they overcome the Reddish predicament?
This one requires nerdiness of the highest degree. Geeks, rejoice: we’re delving into a comprehensive legal document called the NBA’s collective-bargaining agreement.
First, an explainer of how restricted free agency works: When a former first-round pick finishes the fourth and final season of his rookie contract, as is about to happen with Reddish, his team can extend him a “qualifying offer,” a predetermined salary the player can pick up for one season. If the player chooses not to take the qualifying offer, he becomes a restricted free agent, meaning his incumbent team could bring him back by matching any offer he agrees to with another franchise.
But while it’s common for teams to make former lottery picks into restricted free agents, it doesn’t happen all the time. If an organization deems the qualifying offer too expensive for someone, it can choose not to extend it, which then turns the player into an unrestricted free agent, open to signing with whomever he likes.
Advertisement
And now, we get to Reddish.
Because Reddish was a high draft pick, his qualifying offer is pricey: approximately $7 million. But considering he’s not playing at all right now, it’s likely his market value would be less than that, which means teams may not want to extend him the qualifying offer at all. And that’s the predicament. Whichever team he’s on come the end of the season could be staring at one of two things: a team-unfriendly, one-year salary or his unrestricted free agency when he could bolt elsewhere.
If that’s the case, other front offices may consider a trade for Reddish, despite his age, to be a rental and not a long-term play. And players acquired for a 30-game stretch and who have been out of their team’s rotations for two months don’t bring back close to the value Reddish once had.
The teams interested in him will not want to gamble with the difference between, say, a minimum salary and his qualifying offer, either. Look at the group that has reportedly contacted the Knicks about him. The Lakers have cap room next summer and won’t want to bite into it. The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavericks will have luxury tax concerns.
It’s why the Reddish market is more complex than just seeing potential in a young talent or a reaction to what the Lakers gave up for Hachimura.
What is the latest with Evan Fournier?
The Fournier situation isn’t much different than it was last time The Athletic reported on how the Knicks were handling him.
New York is open to moving Fournier, but it has expressed no willingness to attach sweeteners to him just to get rid of his deal. It’s tried pairing him and Reddish together in trades, one way to bring back larger salaries, but The Athletic hasn’t learned of any traction on deals structured that way. The 30-year-old makes $18 million this season and $18.9 million next season, but the Knicks are in a financial middle ground right now. Even if they eliminate Fournier’s 2023-24 salary, they would likely enter the upcoming offseason over the cap, and if they held onto Fournier, they would likely avoid the luxury tax with room to spare. Shedding his contract today just for the sake of it would be mostly aesthetic, not strategic. It’s not worth attaching draft picks to him just to make it happen.
Advertisement
There is a positive scenario (beyond hopes that he might start to play better) that could come from holding onto Fournier, too.
Remember, this team wants to trade for a star. If they believe they can acquire one over the summer, Fournier’s 2023-24 salary, which would be expiring, could help them with the mathematics of the deal.
What are the options for Derrick Rose?
There doesn’t seem to be much of a market for Rose, who has also fallen out of the Knicks’ rotation. There are various ways his situation could go:
The Knicks could use Rose’s $14.5 million expiring salary to take on a bigger contract before the deadline.
The Knicks could hold onto Rose, who has become an enthusiastic mentor for the younger guards.
The Knicks could search for a Rose trade, fail to do so, and offer him a buyout so he can go somewhere else either to receive playing time or to win a title. (For what it’s worth, Rose has talked before about how there are items on his priority list higher than chasing a ring.)
The Knicks could keep Rose through the end of the season and use his contract structure to their advantage. One concept the team has floated, according to league sources, is the possibility of hanging onto Rose just in case a star trade arises heading into the 2023 NBA Draft, which comes before the Knicks have to decide on Rose’s $15.6 million team option for 2023-24. If a player on a large salary does become available on draft night, the Knicks could pick up Rose’s option and pair him with Fournier to send out $34.5 million in expiring money.
Can they find more bench scoring?
The Knicks’ rotation is crunching. Quickley has provided more than half of their total points off the bench over the past seven games, and he didn’t even play in one of those. They could use more scoring punch. But if they upgrade at one of their backup spots, they’ll want to do it responsibly.
Advertisement
Miles McBride has been one of the league’s least-efficient scorers since he became a regular almost two months ago. The Knicks like McBride for the long haul. As The Athletic reported last week, league sources say they’ve decisively turned down inquiries from other teams about him. But they could use a little more oomph. Maybe there’s a bench guard on the cheap to give them some vigor.
The lack of wings they’re willing to play became especially apparent when RJ Barrett went out with a recent hand injury, too. If Reddish won’t see the floor, then New York is loaded with guards and big men without the types of rangy athletes who are taking over today’s style.
They need a shooter — any kind of shooter. The starting lineup is working. It’s one of the main reasons for their success since the 10-13 start. But this team is still 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage. Adding another long-range threat off the bench would help.
And there’s one more place they could make a change, too …
Do they need another center?
Somehow, the Knicks have too many big men, yet not enough. They gave new contracts to Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jericho Sims last summer. Julius Randle is a conventional power forward. The glut means Obi Toppin doesn’t receive many minutes. And yet, when Robinson departs, they crumble.
The defense has cratered since Robinson fractured his thumb three games ago. The Knicks have a couple of weeks to figure out if their experience without their starting center will be as rough as it’s looked so far. And if it is, might they feel compelled to make a move, whether that means flipping Hartenstein for help at another position and promoting Sims full-time or dealing for a more consistent center on the outs with another squad?
(Top photo of Cam Reddish: AAron Ontiveroz / The Denver Post via Getty Images)
