The Rangers’ system has become quietly very good in the last two to three years. The 2020 draft, about which I don’t think I said nice things, looks pretty good right now, with three of their five picks from that draft in the top 10 (but not the first-rounder). They played the board extremely well in the 2022 draft. And their international free agent classes from 2021 and 2022 are off to promising starts. I don’t think this impacts the major-league team much this year aside from one player, but they’ll have inventory to make trades or can supplement in 2024 and beyond as some of these guys break through.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Evan Carter, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 53)
Age (as of July 1): 20 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 50 in 2020
Carter struggled with contact as an amateur, but the Rangers have worked with him on making better swing decisions, and so far he’s avoided the swing-and-miss issues while showing the power/speed combination that led Texas to take him in the second round in the pandemic draft. Carter is an excellent athlete and plus runner who’s already added some strength since signing, with 20-25 homer upside if he continues on this path, while he’s already a plus defender in center with strong instincts and closing speed. He can be too passive at the plate, taking fastballs in hitter’s counts. That tendency is a focus for the Rangers in his development; he should be trying to drive those pitches, rather than taking them. He has as much upside as anyone in their system, with the power and speed to be a 25/25 guy while providing plus defense in center, which would make him an All-Star — if he becomes more aggressive at the plate and avoids becoming another Jeremy Hermida, a talented player who never got over his passivity to get to his power.
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2. Josh Jung, 3B (No. 56)
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 214 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 8 in 2019
So, that wasn’t great. Jung’s major-league debut saw him punch out in 38 percent of his 102 plate appearances, with all of four walks, a .204/.235/.418 line, and without that much hard contact when he did put the bat on the ball. It is a small sample, and Jung missed the first half of the year due to injury, getting into just 23 games in Triple A before he reached the big leagues, and he didn’t look ready there, either. So all of this might be a combination of rust and perhaps the lingering effects of the torn labrum that cost him almost four months. Prior to 2022, Jung’s whole history was making a lot of contact, much of it hard contact, projecting as probably a 55 hit/55 power guy with the chance for either of those to end up at 60 (plus). He’s adequate at third base, but the bat is the thing. In 2022 he suddenly became a swing-first guy, which isn’t his game. I don’t see any reason he would stay that way, especially after failing in his first cup of coffee, but I don’t want to just ignore the 2022 performance because I don’t like what it says. There’s some risk here that wasn’t present a year ago. He could still be an above-average regular at third if he stays healthy and gets back to the approach that made him successful before last season.
3. Owen White, RHP (No. 70)
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 199 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2018
White was the Rangers’ second-round pick in 2018 but underwent Tommy John surgery before appearing in a game, and after the pandemic wiped out the 2020 minor-league season, he didn’t make his debut until mid-2021. In 24 appearances over the last two years, he’s struck out 34 percent of batters he’s faced, with 160 strikeouts and 35 walks in 115 2/3 innings from the complex league up to Double A. He works with a true four-pitch mix, with a fastball at 93-96 mph that gets misses in the upper half of the zone, an action changeup that’s up to 89 but gets whiffs because it moves so much, an above-average slider and a curveball that can flash above-average as well but is less consistent. He made every start until mid-July when the Rangers shut him down, as he was approaching his innings limit and felt some elbow fatigue, ending his year at 80 1/3 innings in the midst of his hottest run — he walked just seven men in his last seven starts, with a 2.21 ERA in that stretch. His 2022 was still progress given how little he’d pitched before, while he also held his stuff until his year ended. It’s at least mid-rotation stuff and command, probably more, if he can continue building up his workload and stay healthy for a full season.
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4. Jack Leiter, RHP (No. 92)
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2021
The Rangers were aggressive with Leiter, the second pick in 2021 out of Vanderbilt, after he didn’t pitch in any games at all after the draft, starting his pro career in Double A last April. He had surprising trouble with command and control, throwing just 59 percent of his pitches for strikes, although his stuff was intact. Leiter can work 92-96 mph when at his best, and a mid-80s slider with a short downward break is his most effective offspeed pitch. He barely threw his changeup, although he has a solid-average one, and as a result he had huge trouble with left-handed batters, who hit .267/.385/.460 off him, including eight of the 11 homers he allowed.
5. Dustin Harris, 1B
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2019
Harris made last year’s list off a huge season in Low and High A at 21, with a swing and approach that looked like it would hold up even against better pitching. He had just a so-so season for Double-A Frisco, hitting .257/.346/.471 as a 22-year-old with a strikeout rate just under 20 percent, but his contact quality wasn’t quite the same. He sprained his wrist during the season and tried to play through it, exacerbating the injury in early August and eventually shutting it down before Frisco’s season ended. He doesn’t miss fastballs, though, and I think the full power will return now that he’s had an offseason to rest the wrist. He has to hit more than he did in 2022 to project as a regular, though.
6. Aaron Zavala, OF
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 193 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2021
Zavala’s a throwback sort of first baseman, with strong plate discipline and the potential to hit .280-.300 but only fringy power to date. He has great hand speed and acceleration for hard contact, with exit velocities well above the median but not at the elite level, so you could project 20+ homers in time, especially as he hits the ball in the air at a high clip. He walked 89 times last year, a 17 percent clip, against just 108 strikeouts, holding his rates even with a promotion to Double A in his first full year in pro ball. The Rangers had him playing right field last year and think he can stay there, although I think left might be more likely. If he had more present over-the-fence power, he’d be a top 100 guy. In November Zavala had a brace put in his elbow to try to repair a partial tear in his UCL, so he might not be back till midyear, although that doesn’t affect his ranking here.
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7. Luisangel Acuña, SS
Age: 21 | 5-10 | 181 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
My sleeper prospect for the Rangers last year, Acuña was great in High A for the first four months of the season when he wasn’t hurt, then went to Double A Aug. 1 and slumped the rest of the way, including his time in the AFL. His contact quality was not good in Double A or the AFL, which may have been fatigue, although given his diminutive build it may just be who he is as a hitter. He is, however, disciplined in a very positive way, making good swing decisions without too much chase, and he’s a plus runner who swiped 48 bags in 59 attempts (81 percent) between the regular season and the AFL. His ceiling depends more than anything on whether you think he stays at shortstop, with opinions varying from a future 55 defender there to a future second baseman because he can’t stay at short. If you come down in the middle, he looks like an everyday player with average defense at short and 45 power.
8. Brock Porter, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 208 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 109 in 2022
Porter was a first-round talent but ended up going to the Rangers in the fourth round, which was their second pick of the draft because of the picks they lost for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Porter, who came out of a Michigan high school where all hitters start with a 1-1 count (if you’re going to do that you might as well just bring the tee back out), is up to 97 mph with a starter’s three-pitch arsenal and a very good delivery that gets power from his legs. The fastball has good arm-side run, and you can project the curve and change to get to above-average. His command and control lag behind his stuff, with a delivery that should help him improve them, although nothing helps like more reps. He has No. 2 starter upside, and his probability will come down to how he does this year with strikes.
9. Tekoah Roby, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 86 in 2020
Roby stayed healthy last year after an elbow injury cut short a breakout 2021 season, with rehab and rest helping him avoid surgery. He’s up to 96 mph with a four-pitch mix that should let him start, showing a slider and changeup that both project as 55s and a curveball with some 11/5 break. He’s a solid athlete with a delivery that mostly works, although his arm can be a half-tick late relative to his landing leg. He was suddenly homer-prone in the first half last year, improving as the year progressed, with his control still well ahead of his command. If he stays healthy there’s mid-rotation upside here.
10. Kumar Rocker, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 245 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 3 in 2022
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The Rangers kind of shocked everyone when they took Rocker, who didn’t sign with the Mets over a disagreement around his post-draft physical in 2021, with the third pick last year. He threw a little before the draft for the independent Tri-City Valley Cats, then again in the AFL, and it was consistent in both looks. He’s lowered his arm slot since college, still works 94-97 mph, the slider is more 55/60 than the 70 pitch it would show when he was a freshman at Vandy, with a four-pitch mix and below-average command. I could understand the Rangers deciding to keep him a starter and developing him, and I could understand them sending him to the Double-A bullpen and trying to get him to the big leagues ASAP. I worry that the lower arm slot is a sign something was bothering him physically, and without that wipeout slider he used to have I don’t see the huge ceiling if he starts. He could pitch in the big leagues inside of 18 months, though.
11. Anthony Gutierrez, OF
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022
Gutierrez has some of the best tools in the system, with a 70 arm, great bat speed, and power to the opposite field already as a 17-year-old in the DSL and ACL last year. He’s in center field now but might end up moving to a corner as he fills out his 6-3 frame. Signed in January 2022 for just shy of $2 million, he’s barely begun growing into his body, and might even gain a little speed in the short term as he improves his coordination. The hit/power combination gives him All-Star upside in a corner, with the obvious caveat that he’s 18 and hasn’t even played beyond the complex yet.
12. Yeison Morrobel, OF
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Left
International signing in 2021
Morrobel is the other side of the coin from Gutierrez, a more polished hitter right now with less physical projection left, but probably heading to a corner and without Gutierrez’s explosiveness or overall upside. Morrobel hit .329/.405/.487 in the ACL last year, with good feel for contact and a tendency to get into a grooved path when he tries to go for power. He does offer some physical projection, just not to the same degree as Gutierrez. I could see a high-average, 15-20 homer ceiling for him, but more over-the-fence power might come at the cost of some contact given his current swing.
13. Justin Foscue, 3B/2B
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 14 in 2020
Foscue was the Rangers’ first-round pick in 2020 and had an injury-marred debut in 2021, making last year his first full pro season. He returned to Double A after spending a month there the prior year, hitting .288/.367/.483, showing a dead-pull approach with medium-quality contact, boosted by a solid eye that has helped him limit his chase. He will go after velocity out of the zone, especially above it. He’s a well below-average defender at second, his primary position last year, and will need work at third, his main position in college at Mississippi State. I think he’s a soft regular if he stays on the dirt, or maybe a bench player who’s best suited to the outfield corner and can play part-time in the infield.
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14. Mitch Bratt, LHP
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 134 in 2021
Bratt is a Canadian lefty, drafted by Texas in the fifth round in 2021 from a Georgia high school, who had an incredible year as an 18-year-old starter in Low A. He’s 90-94 with a 50/55 curveball and a full four-pitch mix, and he throws a lot of strikes, especially for his age. His delivery is funky — you might even call it funkdafied — with a high leg kick and rapid move forward off the mound that hides the ball and doesn’t give hitters a lot of time to prepare, so his stuff plays up a little bit from the mostly average grades. I don’t see a ton of projection here but even a half-grade of velocity would probably give him No. 3/No. 4 starter upside.
15. Jonathan Ornelas, SS/3B
Age: 23| 6-0 | 196 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 91 in 2018
If Ornelas just starts hitting the ball more in the air – he was at a 48 percent groundball rate last year in Double-A Frisco — he’s a probable regular or a full-time, multi-position guy who moves between third, second, and center, with occasional starts at shortstop. He does hit the ball hard enough for average power, which would mitigate his trouble with breaking stuff even in the zone if he gets to it. He’s not a true shortstop but has played the other three positions I mentioned above well enough to be a regular at any of them if the bat supported it. He’s a little overlooked right now with more exciting guys in the system, but a modest swing adjustment here — no small ask, I admit — could turn him from a 45 to a strong 50.
16. Cole Winn, RHP
Age: 23| 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2018
Winn’s 2022 was a complete disaster, as the former top-100 prospect didn’t lose stuff, just command — a lot of it, with way too many middle-middle pitches (or close to it) that Triple-A hitters hit hard with no compunction whatsoever. He also walked 15 percent of batters he faced because he could barely throw his fastball for a strike. He’s still 92-95 mph with a four-pitch mix and all three secondaries can show you above-average, with the same characteristics on the stuff that made him successful to that point. I’m just hoping it’s a write-off and he can reestablish himself as a potential mid-rotation starter — someone who, I swear, actually had command before — this year.
17. Gleider Figuereo, 3B
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
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Signed for just $80,000 in January of 2021, Figuereo played 35 games in the ACL last year and hit 9 homers to put him one off the league lead, even missing about a third of the season with a late promotion to Low A. He’s got some big whack, to use the technical term — he looks maxed out already, with thick hips and strong legs, and his swing isn’t just strong but controlled. He’s a work in progress at third base, possibly moving to the outfield, and I think he might have trouble against pitchers who can come inside with real stuff, but this is a very promising start between the power and feel for the zone.
18. Thomas Saggese, 2B/3B
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 145 in 2020
Saggese was the Rangers’ fifth-round pick in the shortened 2020 draft and took a big step forward at the plate in 2022, cutting his strikeout rate year-over-year from 29.5 percent to 22.0 percent even with a move up to High A — down to 19.3 percent from May 1 onward, as he struggled badly with contact in April. He’s mostly off shortstop now, built like a third baseman but playing a lot of second, probably playing both well enough to be an everyday player at either spot. It’s an aggressive, high-contact approach that I think peaks with 45/50 power, which would make him a soft regular due to OBPs at or below the league average, but a solid big leaguer and a great outcome for a fifth-round pick.
19. Danyer Cueva, SS
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 160 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Signed alongside Morrobel in January 2021 for $1,025,000, Cueva hit .330/.376/.483 in the ACL last year as an 18-year-old, and that’s good because his future depends very much on the hit tool. He’s a mature-bodied kid who isn’t going to stick at shortstop, and he doesn’t project to have more than 45 power. His swing is short, simple, and direct, and he’s probably going to make a lot of contact even when the pitching gets better. The Rangers gave him a taste of Low A at the end of the year, which I hope is a sign that they’re going to push him up the ladder, given the lack of projection to the body. There’s no real floor because if he stops hitting he doesn’t have another tool to carry him, but there’s everyday upside here at second or third base.
20. Ricky Vanasco, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 464 in 2017
Vanasco returned last spring from Tommy John surgery, taking some time to get his stuff back but struggling with command pretty much all year. He went from 89-93 mph when I saw him in April to 92-96 mph by August, with a 55 changeup and a hard curveball that looks like a 55 but that doesn’t play that way against hitters. There’s some effort to the delivery, maybe not enough to explain the 12.7 percent walk rate on the year but enough that he’s probably a reliever, maybe a fastball/change guy exclusively who can go full innings because he gets lefties out.
Others of note
Shortstop Maximo Acosta can run and probably stays at short, lacking enough impact with the bat to project him as a regular, even with his high contact rate in Low A last year at age 19 … Lefty Antoine Kelly came over from Milwaukee in the Matt Bush trade at the 2022 deadline, and then went undrafted in the rule 5 even though he was available. He’s been up to 100, topping out around 97 last year and sitting 94-95, throwing a long sweeper slider, all coming from a low three-quarter slot. He walked 71 guys in 109 innings last year, mostly as a starter, and I think he just needs to go to the pen and throw the &%#! out of it.
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2023 impact
Jung should be the everyday third baseman and I hope he stays healthy enough to get 500 at-bats for them.
The fallen
Davis Wendzel was the Rangers’ second pick in 2019 (No. 41st) out of Baylor, a safe college bat without much upside but a chance to be a solid regular. He hit .201/.287/.398 last year in Triple A at age 25, and he hasn’t slugged .400 anywhere he’s played in more than 8 games.
Sleeper
There’s a lot bubbling under the surface here. Gutierrez is the guy who might explode on the scene this year, especially if the Rangers are their typically aggressive selves and he spends part of 2023 in Low A.
(Photo of Evan Carter: Brian Westerholt / Four Seam Images via AP)
