Vikings offseason: A 10-step plan to set up the franchise for present, future

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Do you remember last March? When Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, recently hired as the Minnesota Vikings’ general manager, explained the direction of his team? If not, here is a quick snippet:

“The way we look at it is we’re trying to navigate both worlds. We’re trying to live in today and tomorrow.”

In 2022, Adofo-Mensah’s goal was to compete while also looking to the future. So Minnesota signed free agents (including Za’Darius Smith) to fill roster voids and drafted young talent (think Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. and Brian Asamoah II) to replace aging veterans.

You know the result: 13 wins, an NFC North title and an opening-round playoff loss to the Giants. But that is the past.

The Vikings’ current situation poses a similar challenge to that of last March. How Adofo-Mensah’s front office handles the forthcoming decisions will matter for 2023 and beyond.

For that reason, I thought it’d be valuable to lay out a road map to explain all that Minnesota must consider. Here is my suggested 10-step plan for success, beginning with strategies to clear the current cap concerns and ending with the ever-important quarterback succession conversation:

1. Restructure O’Neill’s contract

If you’ve read this space in the past few months, you know the Vikings’ first offseason obstacle is finding wiggle room with the salary cap. They are around $23 million in the red, according to Over the Cap. This is what happens when you kick the can down the road with aging franchise cornerstones like Adam Thielen and Eric Kendricks.

We’ll arrive at what to do with those players soon, but let’s start with a fairly simple way to create some room. Before right tackle Brian O’Neill suffered a partially torn Achilles late in the 2022 season, he proved his value. His win rate, per ESPN, ranked No. 3 among all NFL tackles.

He should return to form post-injury, and if that’s the case, it makes sense to restructure his deal, which would likely open up about $10 million in cap space. After this move, Minnesota still has work to do. But it’s a good place to start.

2. Extend Cousins another season

Because it’s quarterback Kirk Cousins, I’m expecting a bevy of comments about this one in short order. It’s almost a must, though.

Cousins is under contract through 2023. Minnesota could restructure his deal to save money on the cap this year, but that would increase the amount of dead money they’d owe in the future. So, similar to last season, an extension feels like the best approach, especially considering the Vikings do not have another quarterback waiting in the wings.

By extending Cousins, the Vikings could save an ample amount of money toward the salary cap. Last year, for example, Minnesota lowered the quarterback’s cap hit by about $15 million by making that move. A similar deal, paired with O’Neill’s restructuring, could put the Vikings in the black even before they decide on key roster members in the final seasons of their contracts.

Another benefit of extending Cousins? It would give the brass another year to find and/or develop a young quarterback.

3. Cut Cook and Kendricks

This is where the decisions start to sting. Dalvin Cook and Kendricks have been focal points of the franchise for more than five years. They’ve been productive if not elite. It’s hard to imagine either player in another uniform, but sometimes “hard” is what happens in this business.

Kendricks is 30. His cap number for 2023 ranks 12th highest among NFL linebackers. Does his recent production match that ranking? Opinions differ. Ultimately, though, the Vikings could save about $9.5 million in cap space by moving on from Kendricks. That seems like too much benefit to pass up.

Cook, meanwhile, is younger. At 27, his forthcoming cap hit ranks fifth among running backs. Questions abound regarding whether that cost matches up with his possible production, even if his yards after contact per rush in 2022 were the second highest of his career. Considering the Vikings could save about $6 million by releasing Cook before June, this move, too, would make sense.

4. Trade Za’Darius Smith

You might be wondering: Why trade Smith and not Cook? The answer lies in positional value. The likelihood a team thinks a running back — even one of Cook’s ilk — is worth a $14 million cap number is much lower than a team believing an elite pass rusher is worth a $15 million cap hit.

That does not mean Smith makes for obvious trade bait. This past season, his production trailed off considerably. He recorded 9 1/2 sacks in the Vikings’ first nine games and only half a sack in the next nine games. A knee injury may have slowed him down, but regardless, the Vikings’ willingness to part with Smith via trade would likely be cause for caution from any potential partner.

Still, parting with him would make for a nice way to add an NFL Draft pick (say, a third-rounder) and clear about $13 million in cap space. Minnesota would face a tall task in replacing his pass-rush production, but confidence in new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ ability to scheme pressure (through stunts, twists and varied looks) could ease the decision-making process.

5. Restructure Thielen’s and Harrison Smith’s contracts

Using some back-of-the-napkin math, we’re sitting about $28 million in the black on the salary cap for 2023 after these first four steps. Thinking about potential free-agent signings and — oh, yeah! — a massive extension for a superstar, there’s still cap space to clear. So we’re going to see if future Vikings Ring of Honor members Thielen and Harrison Smith are willing to take pay cuts.

My thinking is if they’re cut, neither Thielen nor Smith would make their approximately $19 million cap numbers on the open market. Furthermore, as I think about what Smith might be capable of in Flores’ aggressive, player-driven defense and how a healthy offseason could enhance Thielen’s capabilities, it’s worth keeping both if the price is right.

Simultaneously, saving close to $10 million more with these negotiations could put the team in prime position to make its most important moves ahead of 2023.

Justin Jefferson dives for the end zone as cornerback Adoree’ Jackson defends during the Giants-Vikings wild-card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Matt Krohn / USA Today)

6. Extend Jefferson and Hockenson

Last week, we explored the possibility of an extension for Justin Jefferson. He is eligible. Both parties will likely broach the subject at the NFL Scouting Combine. He will ask for (and should receive) top-of-the-wide-receiver-market value.

T.J. Hockenson, meanwhile, is another extension candidate. He is under contract through only 2023, which the Vikings knew when they made the trade for him. Hockenson essentially became the team’s No. 2 receiver, which in some ways may explain Minnesota’s willingness to make the deal in the first place.

Top-of-the-market value for a tight end is around $17 million a season. For reference, before the 2020 season, 49ers tight end George Kittle signed a five-year extension worth $75 million with about $40 million guaranteed. Kittle’s cap hit is about $18 million for 2023, and fellow tight end Darren Waller carries a cap hit of about $12 million.

Juxtapose that with the wide receiver market. Last offseason, the Jaguars signed wide receiver Christian Kirk to a four-year, $72 million deal. His cap hit for 2023 is $23 million. Pass-catching tight ends such as Hockenson can be an absolute steal relative to higher-end receivers. Hockenson might seek a contract at the top of the tight-end market, but that’s OK, especially when factoring in the cost of a dynamic receiver.

Extensions for Jefferson and Hockenson will pull some available funds from the 2023 cap — and much more in the future — but the Vikings would still have approximately $25 million to spend if they followed the previous steps.

7. Re-sign Bradbury

Minnesota needs a center. Garrett Bradbury, whom the team drafted in the first round in 2019, will be an unrestricted free agent.

There are not a lot of good options. Other free-agent centers include Connor McGovern, Austin Blythe and Bradley Bozeman. McGovern will likely cost more than Bradbury, while Blythe is older and Bozeman performed worse, according to PFF’s metrics.

So by my estimation, re-signing Bradbury, who already knows coach Kevin O’Connell’s playbook, makes sense. Yes, the front office declined Bradbury’s fifth-year option before last season. And sure, Bradbury’s 2022 back injury might be cause for future concern.

Those important factors aside, Bradbury is likely to get a mid-level center contract of around $7 million per season in average annual value. Bradbury’s cap number would likely start around $5 million, further dwindling what Minnesota has to spend in free agency.

Let’s say the team has $20 million to work with — that’s enough to make a few important additions.

8. Sign a veteran cornerback, interior defensive lineman and running back in free agency

The Vikings need to allocate their remaining capital to signings who are as sure producers as possible.

Cornerback and interior defensive line feel most important given that Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson are unrestricted free agents. Both could be re-signed, but both have questions surrounding them. First, how much will each be seeking on the open market? And second, how well does Peterson fit what the new defense needs in a cornerback?

Fortunately, the free-agent market is fairly stocked at both positions. Cornerbacks such as Jonathan Jones, Byron Jones and Marcus Peters are set to be available, while Poona Ford, A’Shawn Robinson and Sheldon Rankins will be available for interior defensive line assistance.

If the Vikings move on from Cook, they might also want to add a veteran running back to work alongside youngsters like Ty Chandler. Samaje Perine, Jerick McKinnon and even current Vikings running back Alexander Mattison could fit the bill.

9. Do not allow present positions of need to distract from selecting future contributors in the draft

Even with this plan, holes remain on the 2023 roster. The defense likely needs a nickel cornerback and a linebacker. The offense could benefit from another high-upside wide receiver and more offensive line talent, especially on the interior.

However, those are the needs for this year’s roster. In thinking about the future — which this plan does by buying time at quarterback, extending Jefferson and Hockenson and saving money at positions of lesser value — it’s important that Minnesota hits with its picks in the upcoming draft, regardless of the current need.

Cornerbacks may be the draft’s strength, and if the opportunity to pick one presents itself, the Vikings should do so for the long term. If a highly graded guard falls, they should take him, even if Ed Ingram is slated to start in 2023. The balance of reworking a roster while remaining competitive is difficult, but it’s possible to do so as long as draft capital transforms into on-field production.

10. Be willing to take a chance on a quarterback

This final step is related to No. 9, but as with everything related to the quarterback, it felt important to highlight it.

Even if the Vikings extend Cousins another season, keeping an eye on future options at the position seems essential. That includes this year’s draft. The Vikings may need to fortify their defense. A high-end wide receiver has also been a trendy mock draft pick at No. 23. Still, the Vikings should aggressively scout the available quarterbacks.

It’s difficult to imagine they would not, especially given O’Connell’s background. He was an NFL quarterback. After retiring, he worked closely with private coach George Whitfield Jr. O’Connell prepped players for pre-draft interviews. He observed the entire process. He knows its ins and outs.

Maybe he’ll take to someone like Anthony Richardson or Hendon Hooker — both of whom could be available at No. 23. In that situation, the Vikings should not be afraid to make that move.

Ask Kansas City and Philadelphia about the potential benefits.

(Top photo of Kirk Cousins, left, and Dalvin Cook: David Berding / Getty Images)