Part of a continuing series examining the Power 5 and top Group of 5 teams for the 2018 college football season. Other entries by conference: ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | G5/Independents
Brian Jean-Mary remembers an especially awkward afternoon, just after the “Texas deal,” so to speak, was done.
In late 2016, after Charlie Strong’s tenure at Texas ended, Jean-Mary was busy figuring out what came next. He took an interview with another head coach. The job offer came quick. Jean-Mary didn’t accept it on sight, saying he needed to talk it over with his family. In the meantime, the head coach in question had one nagging thought: Strong hadn’t taken another job. What if he did? Would Jean-Mary follow?
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The coach knew the deal: Jean-Mary got his start under Strong. He was a graduate assistant at South Carolina in the early 2000s, when Strong worked for Lou Holtz. He had been an assistant head coach under Strong at Louisville. He was Strong’s linebackers coach and recruiting coordinator during those three ill-fated years at Texas.
“I was like, ‘Until that happens, I can’t make that decision,’ ” Jean-Mary said. “ ‘Right now, he doesn’t have a job, so I’m here, and I want to explore the opportunities with you.’ ”
That is precisely the point at which Strong called Jean-Mary and told him that he was taking the South Florida job — and, oh, by the way, he wanted Jean-Mary to be his defensive coordinator. “I’m trying to rush him off the phone, like, ‘Coach, this is probably not the best time.’ The other coach I was with, I know in the back of his mind he was thinking, wait a second, what is this? Because there were a lot of yeses and nos and not a lot of dialogue in that conversation.”
Spoiler alert: Jean-Mary followed Strong to Tampa, and Strong’s first Bulls team was packed with experienced talent from predecessor Willie Taggart’s breakout season.
“We were walking into a team that won 11 games,” Strong said. “We’re coming from Texas, where we had our ego shattered. And now you take over this team? It could have gone backward.”
USF finished 10-2, and both losses, to Houston and UCF, came via last-minute touchdowns. The offense was among the best in the country, and Jean-Mary’s first coordinated defense more than held up its end of the bargain, leading the American Athletic Conference in yards per play allowed.
The coaching staff remains, but this time it leads a roster with personnel uncertainties. Many of Taggart’s stars are gone. In a different way, Strong & Co. are still figuring out what comes next.
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Biggest on-field question
The final pass attempt of Quinton Flowers’ collegiate career — a tightly wound touchdown lob to wide receiver Tyre McCants, which beat Texas Tech in the final moments of the 2017 Birmingham Bowl — was a fitting coda to an ultra-productive career.
In three years, Flowers amassed 8,130 yards passing, 3,672 yards rushing and 112 total touchdowns. As a senior, Flowers had to meld his game with new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert’s “veer-and-shoot system,” but by the second half of the campaign he had more than reclaimed a rep as one of his sport’s most dangerous offensive threats. Flowers finished the season with 2,911 yards in the air — tying USF’s all-time single-season record —and 1,078 on the ground. That was enough to make him the program’s all-time leading rusher, one of 42 school records (including career total offense and total touchdowns) he rolled up along the way.
The 2018 Bulls face no shortage of major personnel departures. The standouts at the core of the excellent 2017 defense are gone, including tackles Deadrin Senat and Bruce Hector, defensive end Mike Love, linebacker Auggie Sanchez and nickel back Deatrick Nichols. Both of last year’s by-committee running backs are gone, too, not to mention the various rips in what was a slightly patchwork offensive line.
Yet no roster clearing is more as immeasurable as the one left behind by Flowers. What’s more, no obvious succession plan has been established. “A lot of the competitions for a lot of those spots are going to go all the way through camp,” Gilbert said. After three years of reliable brilliance under center, USF will come together this fall with it quarterback duties up for grabs.
Among the three likely candidates for the job, Blake Barnett is by far the most recognizable. A former five-star Alabama signee who lost his starting spot to Jalen Hurts in the Crimson Tide’s 2016 season opener, Barnett transferred to Arizona State, where he failed to win the job over incumbent Manny Wilkins. In seven career appearances, Barnett has completed 14 of 24 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. A graduate transfer, he is eligible to play immediately, and the post-Flowers era at USF represents his last chance to make good on years of expectations.
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Despite that pedigree, Barnett (who did not participate in spring practice) isn’t the presumptive choice, at least not yet. Flowers’ 2017 backup, Brett Kean, is in the mix, as is Chris Oladokun, who impressed on the scout team last fall. The challenge for USF’s staff goes beyond finding some loose facsimile of Flowers’ production, it’s also about the larger, systemic tweaks each player’s specific skills might require.
“It just depends who ends up winning that job,” Gilbert said. “Whoever ends up being the guy, we’ll tailor to what his strengths are, what he does best, and we’ll go in that direction with him. We try to stay open-minded about it, and whatever it takes to put points on the board, that’s what we try to do.”
The eventual winner of USF’s quarterback sweepstakes undoubtedly will make a sizable impact on the look and feel of USF’s offense while facing the unenviable task of succeeding the most productive, dynamic player in program history.
“You don’t replace a player like Quinton Flowers,” Strong said. “But that’s how it goes. You lose guys, but you got guys, and those guys have got to play.”
Depth chart analysis
Quarterbacks: If USF’s three-way quarterback competition is as wide open as it seems, it’s not hard to understand why. For one thing, Alabama/Arizona State transfer Blake Barnett’s tangible real-world production (or, more precisely, lack thereof) is hardly dwarfed by junior Brett Kean’s or sophomore Chris Oladokun’s. The former attempted 11 passes last season, the latter just one, and they’ll enter 2018 having combined for 26 completions and 205 yards in their careers. (Incoming recruits Octavious Battle and Jordan McCloud have combined for zero, of course.) For another, “all three of those guys are a little different, they each do something a little different from the others, and maybe a little better than the others,” Gilbert said. Stay tuned.
Running backs: Flowers was the Bulls’ most reliable source of yards on the ground, but he was joined in the backfield by seniors D’Ernest Johnson and Darius Tice, who split carries evenly. Chalk up two more holes to fill, though there are reasons to think USF won’t lose nearly as much in this transfer. Chief among them is Jordan Cronkrite, a former four-star recruit who played 24 games at Florida before transferring and sitting out the 2017 season. At 5 feet 11 and 206 pounds, Cronkrite has the type of athleticism that could make him an ideal backfield partner to Elijah Mack, a 6-0, 215-pound sophomore who emerged as a powerful downhill runner this spring. Redshirt freshman Duran Bell (174 pounds) is the speediest of the bunch and could add another element to the Bulls’ attack. The top returning rusher is sophomore Trevon Sands, who had 111 yards on 26 carries.
Wide receivers/tight ends: Few of USF’s positions were spared from the harsh perils of roster turnover, but wideout was among that few. Yes, the Bulls said farewell to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, their top pass catcher of a year ago (53 receptions, 879 yards, six touchdowns), who was drafted in the fifth round by the Green Bay Packers. Yet senior Tyre McCants — who caught 36 balls for 686 yards and seven touchdowns a season ago — is a 240-pound ball of kinetic force.
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He is joined by two juniors: 6-3, 207-pound Darnell Salomon, who broke out in USF’s epic shootout loss to UCF (and whose performance was slightly overshadowed by McCants’ school-record 227 yards); and DeAngelo Antoine, healthy after an injury-marred 2017. There is depth here, too, particularly if seniors Ryeshene Bronson and Stanley Clerveaux (who was granted a sixth year of eligibility this spring) have put their injury woes behind them. Redshirt freshman Randall St. Felix turned more than a few heads with his speed and playmaking this spring, and he could force his way into a crowded configuration.
Junior tight end Mitchell Wilcox was a second-team All-AAC pick in 2016 and should make for a durable safety valve for whichever less-experienced quarterback takes the offensive helm.
Indeed, that might be the most exciting, and relieving, aspect to the coach responsible for making sure USF’s offense goes: Whatever struggles arise, USF can always just throw the ball up, safe in the assumption that somebody will go and get it.
“We had some guys make spectacular catches this spring, and when those guys make those kind of catches, from a coaching standpoint it breeds a lot of confidence into the coach,” Gilbert said. “If things go down that path, at some point a guy’s just gotta make a play. Those guys give you that opportunity.”
Offensive line: Things are far less certain on the offensive line, which stumbled through the early portions of 2017 before Cameron Ruff moved to center, where he played in 2016, and William Atterbury slid into Ruff’s vacated right guard position. The strength of the 2018 line will be again be driven in large part by second-team all-conference right tackle Marcus Norman, alongside Atterbury and left tackle Eric Mayes, all of whom started at least 10 games last year. Sophomore Michael Wiggs and redshirt freshman Demetris Harris top the post-spring depth chart at center and left guard, respectively, but Gilbert said those positions were likely to be “shuffled around” between now and USF’s opener, with competition from current reserves Jeremiah Stafford and Marlon Gonzalez, among others.
Defensive line: Flowers will be this roster’s most noticeable absence in 2018, but the gaping holes along the Bulls’ defensive front might give it a run for its money. Jean-Mary called tackles Deadrin Senat and Bruce Hector “generational guys” for South Florida as a program. Losing both, with no obvious replacements ready, is a massive blow, made worse by the simultaneous loss of defensive end Mike Love, from a defense that ranked fifth in tackles for loss per game.
Hybrid linebacker/end Greg Reaves, who had a team-high 14 tackles for loss, is the only returning starter from a front four that thrived on its collective experience a year ago. Strong and Jean-Mary leaned heavily on the D-line in their first recruiting class and are hoping young talent can emerge.
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“We knew we were going to be thin on the interior,” Jean-Mary said. “That’s the biggest point for us this year, no doubt. We signed five interior guys. You know, you sign that many kids as freshmen, you hate to play those kids, but one of the reasons they came and we had to sign that number is there are going to be two or maybe three of them that might have to play for us this year.”
Beyond Reaves, junior Kirk Livingstone is the top returning player at end. Duke transfer Marquies Price also joins the fray after sitting out last season; he started 14 games over two seasons for the Blue Devils. At tackle, another Duke transfer, Brandon Boyce, is in the mix with senior Kevin Bronson and sophomores Kevin Kegler and Kelvin Pinkney.
Linebackers: Auggie Sanchez led the Bulls in tackles for three consecutive seasons and finished his career as the school’s all-time leader. His partner in Jean-Mary’s 4-2-5 system, Nico Sawtelle (54 tackles last year), will anchor the middle this time, with help from converted safety Khalid McGee, who earned praise from coaches for not only happily making the switch but also adding the requisite weight and strength he’ll need to bang in the box on a regular basis.
Defensive backs: Jean-Mary called newly installed nickel back Ronnie Hoggins the “undisputed leader of our defense right now.” He is also, perhaps not coincidentally, the anchor of the Bulls’ most experienced defensive position. South Florida will no doubt miss strong safety Devin Abraham, who led the team with five interceptions, but corner Mazzi Wilkins and free safety Jaymon Thomas are seniors with plenty of starting experience. “We’ve got guys who’ve played a lot of ball,” Hoggins said. “That’s something we’re going to have to count on. Because overall we’re young, and we know we’re young, and we have to get those young guys ready to play, because they are going to play.” Sophomore Mike Hampton and converted wideout Chris Barr are competing for time at the other cornerback spot. At strong safety, candidates include sophomore Naytron Culpepper and senior Nate Ferguson.
Special teams: Speaking of new faces, Strong’s 2018 specialists fit the description. Redshirt freshman Marco Salani, senior Jake Vivonetto and Tennessee State transfer Coby Weiss are vying to replace first-team all-conference kicker Emilio Nadelman, who owns the program’s best career field-goal percentage. Australian-born Trent Schneider will take over punting duties. Tyre McCants is expected to be the top kick returner after returning seven last year in sharing the role.
How the Bulls have recruited from 2015-2018
According to 247Sports’ Composite Rankings, here is how USF’s recruiting classes have fared nationally and within the AAC over the last four years:
Click here to enlarge
South Florida’s official depth charts add a small abbreviation next to certain names: BA. The uninitiated might be confused: How does a freshman already have a bachelor of arts degree? And what does that have to do with his spot as a third-string tackle?
In fact, BA stands for Bay Area, a reference to Tampa Bay and the surrounding environs, a way of emphasizing the local flavor throughout the Bulls’ roster, connecting the team to the metropolitan area and — ideally, anyway — carving its own piece of territory out of the football-mad, talent-rich, recruiting-saturated peninsula it calls home.
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“We feel like the I-75 corridor, north of Tampa in the Wesley Chapel/Pasco County area all the way down to Naples — that’s kind of our little area,” Jean-Mary said. “If we can get the best players from that area, we feel like we can compete at a very high level.”
Whether this strategy will pay long-term dividends — and whether it’s even possible to erect an invisible fence around a couple hundred miles of coastal prep football talent — remains to be seen. Beyond any doubt, though, is Strong’s familiarity with the state.
“There is nowhere in this state that I can go where I don’t know somebody,” Strong said.
For decades, from his tenures at Florida to the northbound talent pipeline he built as the head coach at Louisville, Strong laid down deep ties to Florida’s football talent and the people who coach it.
“I wouldn’t say this in front of him — I don’t want to stroke his ego any more — but he is kind of like the dean of the state when it comes to recruiting,” Jean-Mary said.
Strong and his staff have had only one full cycle to blend his Rolodex with a geotargeted recruiting strategy, but the early returns are promising. USF’s 2018 class was the program’s highest ranked, per 247Sports’ Composite Rankings, since the 2014 class that landed Flowers and kick-started Taggart’s rise. Fourteen of the team’s 20 signees were three-star prospects, and 19 of the 20 were from Florida. These are not Alabama-level numbers, but USF doesn’t need Alabama-level recruiting numbers to thrive. For the team’s staff, anyway, all it really needs is a niche.
“Look, we don’t have the tradition that some other places have,” Jean-Mary said. “If a kid grows up a diehard Florida Gator fan, and they’re recruiting him, that’s where he’s gonna go. But for certain kids, that is something unique and something they can take some pride in and want to be a part of.”
Impact of coaching changes
South Florida is no stranger to the relentless transience of the college football coach. From 2011 to 2017, the program swapped out at least one member of its primary coaching staff every year. This season, that streak ended. The staff Strong assembled upon his arrival last year remains intact, which, if nothing else, should foster a sense of stability in an inexperienced, fluid locker room. The one change is the addition of a 10th assistant, safeties coach Tommy Restivo. Most recently the defensive coordinator at South Carolina State, Restivo also worked under Strong at Florida and Louisville.
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Schedule analysis
Even with all that turnover, USF has high expectations in part because of a manageable schedule. If the Bulls can beat Georgia Tech at home Sept. 8 and Illinois on the road Sept. 15, they will have a puncher’s chance of arriving at Oct. 27’s massive trip to Houston with an unbeaten record.
That might be expecting too much of a team with so many new pieces, and a loss or even two sounds like a better guess. But even if the Bulls take a quantifiable step back, their record might not show it — at least not right away. Though they visit Houston, they avoid Memphis and Navy from the AAC West. The biggest game is again saved for last, as the Bulls host rival UCF the day after Thanksgiving.
Final assessment
As a program, South Florida remains as healthy as it’s ever been. Strong is an ideal fit in the nooks and crannies of Florida’s talent scene, his hard-charging style matching perfectly with the kinds of talented-but-not-feted three-star prospects who make up the bulk of his roster. In the short term, though, roster turnover threatens to at least mildly derail the momentum of back-to-back two-loss seasons.
“The question is: What do you want to be known for?,” Jean-Mary asked. “Do you want to be known as one of the teams that lowered the bar? Or do you want to be at the bar and setting it a little higher?”
With Flowers gone, the program is entering an uncertain new era, but it again has the talent to contend for the AAC championship.