Ollie Watkins’ Aston Villa goalscoring form: What’s that all about?

So is he a hot topic again?

When Ollie Watkins sat in the Dubai sun in December and discussed with The Athletic his season so far, he knew his two goals in 14 Premier League appearances at that stage would not get him noticed and other strikers were rightly hogging the headlines.

There was no panic in his words, though. Watkins had a plan to continue studying clips of Kylian Mbappe and Mohamad Salah while also working closely with manager Unai Emery to prepare himself for when the World Cup was over and domestic football returned.

“I want to be more ruthless and put away more of my chances,” he said with conviction.

Now, after four goals in as many Premier League games, he has the chance to do what no other Aston Villa player has ever done: score five in a row in the competition. So yes, he is about at hot as you can get right now.

But where do you begin with a player in such good form? That only Erling Haaland and Marcus Rashford have scored more goals than his five in the Premier League since the World Cup break feels like the place to start.

Rashford, Harry Kane and Callum Wilson were the strikers who all got the nod ahead of Watkins as England crashed out of the Qatar tournament in the quarter-finals. Watkins watched on with interest, but after making the 55-man pre-tournament list was desperate to be there. “I want to be talked about before big tournaments,” he said, feeling a little bruised by missing out and already with one eye on the 2024 European Championships in Germany.

His personal mission was to get back among the goals. Seven strikes in 22 Premier League games has a sweeter sound than two in 14, and there’s so much to like about his current run.

Like how he’s scored goals against Arsenal, Manchester City and Leicester City with his last three shots. That’s the definition of ruthless.

Or how about: out of the six players to score four or more goals in 2023, he’s had by far the lowest quality chances yet has the second-best conversion rate. In short, he’s scoring from areas where it is much harder to convert from.

The table below shows that only Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez has a better conversion rate than Watkins. And look at the xG (expected goals) figures compared to goals scored to see how Watkins is performing better than he should be.

Villa’s go-to man is very much able to make and finish his own opportunities, too. Yes, his team-mates Matty Cash and Douglas Luiz helped put him into favourable positions for the goals against Arsenal and Manchester City, but look at how he finished those chances. One with his right foot and the other with his left.

“It’s about being well-balanced and unpredictable in this modern game,” says striker coach Scott Chickelday, who worked one-on-one with the 27-year-old in the summer.

“You absolutely have to be able to deliver on both feet and Ollie can. His left-foot finish against Arsenal where he hammers it into the bottom corner is a top finish.

Ollie Watkins scoring with his left against Arsenal (Photo: Shaun Botterill via Getty Images)

“Then at Man City, he shows good spacial awareness and finishes low and hard again, but this time with his right foot.

“He has two phenomenal feet and that’s a massive trait because he can be so unpredictable.

“Defenders are finding it very hard to stop him because he puts doubt into their minds. They don’t know whether he’s going to go left or right and, because of that, they can’t back off either because it will be too late.”

Watkins’ work with Chickelday took place at Bodymoor Heath before pre-season and was sanctioned by Villa. Many Premier League players like to squeeze in additional sessions that are personalised to their position and Watkins asked for drills that recreated game-like scenarios — finishing from crosses and six-yard box shooting in particular — to give him a head start over the summer.

Chickelday, who has coached at academy level at Tottenham Hotspur and Queens Park Rangers, works with many other players and has just completed a five-week spell in South Africa, where he worked with the strikers of Orlando Pirates.

He isn’t taking any credit for Watkins’ recent run, but cannot hide his admiration for one of football’s nice guys.

“As well as being a brilliant striker, he’s also humble and likeable,” Chickelday says.

“I just hope his goalscoring run continues and it gets him back in the England squad because he certainly deserves it.”

The England manager, Gareth Southgate, is well aware of Watkins’ qualities having called him up in 2022. He regularly attends Villa games and, alongside his support staff, is continually going over video footage of players in and around the squad.

Watkins’ mission for the second half of the season was to force his way into conversations surrounding the Premier League’s elite. His new-found confidence in front of goal is doing just that.

He’s scoring all types of goals, too. Against Leicester, it was a predatory finish as he smashed in the rebound after Emi Buendia’s shot hit the crossbar. Against Liverpool, it was a glancing header.

“He’s showing really good movement as well as disciplined finishes,” Chickelday says.

“He works really hard to get his goals and you can see by his celebrations how much it means to him.”

The graphic below shows Watkins’ shot evolution over the past four years. What’s clear is that this season, he is now getting closer and more central to goal.