Think of this week as the table-setting process. You’ve thought about the forthcoming dinner (free agency and the NFL Draft) for weeks, and now it’s time to begin the final preparations.
On Monday, the Vikings brass will converge on Indianapolis for the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. Both general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell will speak to reporters. Scouts will evaluate potential draftees. Insight into the team’s direction will be shared.
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Which decisions are most pressing for the Vikings? Which players’ situations provide the most intrigue?
Five important topics of conversation stood out.
1. The Vikings have not tipped their hand on their overall plan.
Last March, Adofo-Mensah talked about team-building. About how the common misconception is binary: You’re either all in or you’re rebuilding. His approach, he expressed at the time, actually lay in the middle. Minnesota, he said, would try to navigate both worlds — try to, as Adofo-Mensah put it, “live in the today and the tomorrow.”
Their actions followed suit. Minnesota signed Za’Darius Smith, Jordan Hicks, Harrison Phillips and others for the 2023 season. They drafted safety Lewis Cine and cornerback Andrew Booth Jr., two players who seemed shoo-ins to fill a void that would exist once veterans like Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson moved on.
Still, the approach hinged on multiple factors. First, head coach O’Connell needed to squeeze as much out of the team’s roster as possible — which he did. Second, youngsters like Cine, Booth, right guard Ed Ingram, linebacker Brian Asamoah and others needed to ascend. They did not — for a plethora of reasons.
That brings us to today and to Minnesota’s direction forward. Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell have both referred to the goal of reaching “a championship standard.” Question is, what approach do they — or, more specifically, ownership — believe will put the team in the best position to achieve that standard? Is it attempting another retool of this current roster? Or is it clearing a large chunk of the deck to (hopefully) raise the ceiling in 2024 and beyond?
What they say this week should hint at their overall approach. Their subsequent actions, though, will tell the final tale.
2. There is a decision to make regarding quarterback Kirk Cousins.
If reading this ahead of another combine feels like deja vu, don’t fret. Last year this very week, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell had to deal with similar questions about Cousins. They leaned on a generic but understandable response: “Everything is in play.”
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And although Adofo-Mensah said recently that “it’s our expectation that he will be our quarterback,” everything feels in play once again.
For the Vikings, the conversation begins here: Do team ownership, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell want Cousins to be their long-term quarterback?
If the answer is yes, a long-term extension would be most beneficial to a salary cap that could also have to weather a record-breaking receiver deal for Justin Jefferson.
If the answer is no, the Vikings must ask more questions. What’s the succession plan at quarterback? Do they need further flexibility on the salary cap for this season, raising the idea of a potential one-year extension?
Meanwhile, if the answer is no, Cousins and his agent must deal with some difficult questions themselves. If Minnesota is not committing long term, does it make sense to stay at all? And, if quarterbacks like Derek Carr and Daniel Jones are seeking lucrative multiyear deals with less past production, why settle for less?
This could be simple, or it could be a choose-your-own-adventure exercise with wide-ranging ramifications. That’s the point: Cousins’ situation requires some serious sorting through.
3. How can they improve their rushing attack?
Everyone knows the NFL is a passing league.
Quarterbacks are king. Success throwing the ball wins games (see Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes). Defensive rules have forced teams to evolve.
As such, it’s easy to glaze over an intriguing fact: In 2022, teams ran the ball more efficiently than in any season since 2008. Additionally, the league-wide rushing success rate was higher in 2022 than in any year since 2004.
We can debate the whys — how a game built on space necessitated lighter, faster defenders, who are often less fit to stop the run — but that’s not as important as connecting this fact to the Vikings. In 2022, Minnesota ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing success rate and expected points added per rush. The Vikings also racked up more runs that resulted in zero or negative yards than any other team. The onus here is on the running backs, the offensive line, injuries and the scheme in general.
So, for as much as we’ve discussed defensive needs (and rightfully so) and adding another wide receiver behind Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson, it also feels fair to wonder what potential changes could occur in the running game.
4. What will they do with Danielle Hunter?
Since the end of the 2022 season, a massive chunk of the discussion surrounding the Vikings’ pass rush has revolved around what the team will do with Smith. The topsy-turvy nature of his 2022 campaign created an interesting dilemma. So does Minnesota’s salary cap situation, given that moving on from Smith would clear up about $13 million.
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These are worthwhile considerations, but so, too, are the options with Smith’s pass-rushing teammate, Hunter.
The 2023 season is the final year of the 28-year-old’s contract. And Hunter, who has played 102 career games and totaled 71 sacks, is due to make only $5.5 million. By way of comparison, the Jets are scheduled to pay pass rusher Carl Lawson $15 million this season, almost triple Hunter’s amount. And Lawson only has 27 career sacks in 68 games.
Even though Hunter did not leap off the tape in 2022, he did finish 19th in the league in sacks and seventh in QB pressures. He also did not miss a game due to injury. Taken together, Hunter deserves more money and, provided he stays healthy, almost certainly will get it.
Does new defensive coordinator Brian Flores think Hunter fits his system? If so, will the Vikings be willing to pony up? If not, who will replace Hunter’s production? Could another team seek Hunter’s services via trade after June 1? As with Smith’s situation, these questions must be addressed.
5. The interior of the defensive line remains their least-discussed position of need.
Here is a list of the interior defensive lineman currently on the Vikings’ roster: Harrison Phillips, Khyiris Tonga, James Lynch, Esezi Otomewo, Ross Blacklock and Sheldon Day.
Where’s Dalvin Tomlinson? His contract was set to void last week, which would have made him a free agent, but he and the Vikings agreed to extend the date at which his contract voids to March 15. Between now and then, Minnesota will likely try to sign him to an extension.
With or without Tomlinson, the Vikings would benefit immensely from more pass-rushing firepower at this spot. Otomewo and Lynch showed flashes in 2022, and Tonga held his own, especially against the run. Still, for as much as cornerback and linebacker seem like necessities for the future of this team, fortifying the interior should be high on the team’s list of priorities.
There is a reason that the Miami Dolphins, in Flores’ first season as head coach, drafted Christian Wilkins with their first-round pick.
(Photo of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah: Matt Krohn / USA Today)
