Now that LeBron James is officially a Laker, we can finally catch our breath and assess what has happened and what is ahead – perhaps a blockbuster deal for Kawhi Leonard. Jovan Buha, Andy Kamenetzky, Brian Kamenetzky and Pete Zayas all give their thoughts on the five topics in the latest roundtable of The Athletic.
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1. What has been the best post-LeBron transaction for the Lakers?
Andy Kamenetzky: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope offers the best combination of need and clean fit. He’s easily slotted into the first or second unit, depending on how Luke Walton wants to configure the other pieces. Caldwell-Pope’s hustling, disruptive defense is a plus, and if his post-Seal Beach detention center numbers are more than a career outlier, so is his outside shooting. There will be bouts of trigger-happiness, but by and large, KCP is a pretty solid complementary player.
(Plus, it’s safe to assume Klutch Klient Caldwell-Pope regularly pipelined intel to LeBron James and Rich Paul while regularly providing an organic impetus for Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson to discuss with Paul “how KCP might fit into the Lakers future,” a flowery way of saying “talk around the topic of LeBron.” The $30 million that Caldwell-Pope banked last and this season feels like a quality investment by the Lakers, and it’s proof that sharing an agent with LeBron is never a bad idea. Dude should change his name to Klutchtavious Klutchwell Klutch.)
Jovan Buha: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’s not worth $12 million annually, but on a one-year deal there is almost no downside. Given his Klutch Sports representation, it’s also likely that that figure is slightly inflated from the price of doing business with LeBron.
To build the ideal LeBron lineup, you need a combination of floor-spacers and versatile wing defenders. Caldwell-Pope satisfies both requirements; he is arguably the Lakers’ best shooter and perimeter defender. For what it’s worth, I’m also a fan of signing JaVale McGee on a minimum deal. I think he was more important to Golden State than most realize.
Brian Kamenetzky: Lance Stephenson and JaVale McGee have the potential to be the most entertaining. Rajon Rondo is definitely the most intriguing, both for the style-of-play questions and the politics of taking this type of shot across Lonzo Ball’s bow. But for old fashioned, mundane basketballing, I like the re-signing of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Last season, KCP was among the team’s most consistent performers, shooting exceptionally well after the All-Star break (42 percent from three), and landing at or near the top in offensive and defensive win shares (topping the list in combined WS), Box Plus-Minus, and VORP (value over replacement player).
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He likely won’t sustain that level of shooting this year, but KCP is a perfect supporting player for these Lakers. Works hard, plays defense, and probably won’t freak out if he has to play a bench role. Small overpay at $12 million, maybe, but call it a gratuity to Klutch Sports for other services rendered.
Pete Zayas: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Off-ball screening promotes ball movement in half-court offense, and those actions can’t be maximized unless a credible shooter is coming off of those screens. KCP filled that role for the Lakers last season as the team’s primary option off of stagger screens and pindowns. Kyle Korver and LeBron James had excellent chemistry on many of the exact same actions that the Lakers ran for KCP last year, so the Klutch Sports cohorts should be fast friends on the court.
Summer League sensation Svi Mykhailiuk is the only other Laker who is currently effective on these actions – although Kyle Kuzma isn’t far away – so re-signing KCP was a must, even at a $12 million price point.
2. And the worst post-LeBron transaction for the Lakers?
AK: “Worst” is an overstatement for someone of Rajon Rondo’s play-making credentials, particularly for a team lacking point guard depth. But he is definitely the most complicated. By definition, The King’s arrival meant Lonzo Ball relinquishing “face of the franchise” status. But Rondo’s presence, accurately or otherwise, perpetuates a narrative of Ball’s future with the organization in flux. It’s a rather sharp U-turn from “transcendent talent” to “openly competing for the starting gig.” This in turn may crank up the romance between LaVar Ball and any media outlet lending him a mic, which is never a plus.
But even removing Ball from the equation, Rondo is a mercurial personality. To be fair, he tends to thrive in winning atmospheres, now the bare minimum for the Lakers. The setup is ideal on paper. Still, the day-to-day with Rondo will likely provide challenges for Luke Walton and teammates alike.
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JB: Rajon Rondo. Count me as a skeptic of the Rondo experiment. Having a $9 million backup point guard is a waste of resources on a team that already has LeBron James, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram — and heck, even Lance Stephenson — as its primary ball-handlers and playmakers. The Lakers have other glaring needs — a starting center and another multi-positional 3-and-D player — that they should have addressed first.
Rondo’s post-Celtics career is checkered at best. He is one of the worst-shooting point guards in the league, is a bit overrated defensively and can be difficult to get along with. It’s also an odd move considering that just last summer the Lakers were parading Ball around as the face of the franchise (it’s obviously LeBron now). This move contradicts that confidence in him, to some extent. I’ll gladly admit it if I’m wrong, but I’m against the signing.
BK: Stephenson. I realize he’s a passionate dude who will throw a lot of energy at the defensive side of things. On his good days, he is another versatile player who can handle the ball, make a pass, score a little and rebound – all skills the Lakers could use in their second unit. But as Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard noted, very often Stephenson was the best player on the floor last season … just not always for Indiana. He can’t stretch the floor at all, and I worry as the season goes on he will suck up minutes from players far more important to the Lakers’ future.
PZ: I don’t understand the Lance Stephenson signing. His best attribute is the ability to create a shot out of ball screens or isolations when the offense gets stagnant, but there are several other players (LeBron, Lonzo, Rondo, Ingram and Kuzma) on the roster who I’d rather give the ball to in those situations. He isn’t a particularly useful catch-and-shoot guy (0.98 points per possession, 39th percentile), so he’s not going to capitalize on the shot creation of those players either. He’s an energetic defender who won’t back down from anyone, but he’s more sizzle than steak on that end of the court. There were better players available with the room exception, and it would be a shame if he eats into Josh Hart’s minutes.
3. The Lakers still have the $4.5 million “room exception” to spend. Who/what should they use it on?
AK: Somebody not named “Carmelo” or “Anthony.” Seriously. Yes, the Lakers are in win-now mode, but the development of Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma still matters, if for no other reason than increasing trade value. Thus, reducing either’s minutes or touches in favor of Melo can’t be justified. (Forget being a better player. Is Melo even a better scorer than Ingram or Kuzma at this stage of his career?) But even if either (or both) is moved or Melo is willing to come off the bench, this is still a bad idea. Keeping this collection of strong personalities happy will be challenging enough without adding yet another.
With that established, unless the Lakers are truly comfortable giving Moe Wagner and/or Svi Mykhailiuk minutes, the Lakers should add as much shooting as possible. Reuniting with Wayne Ellington could be a good start.
JB: A starting center and/or another shooter. As I said, I like the McGee signing. But he is ideally your backup center and not your starter. I don’t see Ivica Zubac or Moe Wagner being ready for that role just yet, so the Lakers should seek an upgrade. The issue, of course, is that the center market is barren right now. Keep an eye on Clippers restricted free agent Montrezl Harrell, who’s also a Klutch Sports client. This roster still needs another good 3-point shooter, so that would be my other target if they decide to pass on another big. (To be clear, though, he’s technically a big man that can shoot. I don’t think Carmelo Anthony makes sense given his style of play and temperament.)
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BK: Shooting. Bringing back Brook Lopez would have made a lot of sense, but the Lakers obviously did not prioritize him the same way. Currently, pickings are pretty slim. Wayne Ellington brings a skill set the team could use, but the backcourt rotation could already be a little crowded, depending on how Luke Walton decides to roll things out. James Ennis III is a credible shooting wing and would come cheap, as would Dante Cunningham. The lack of exciting options leaves part of me thinking Carmelo Anthony at the minimum, coming off the bench, could be useful.
Fortunately, that part is being shouted down by other, smarter, parts of me. Anthony brings too many potential problems with fit, even as a reserve.
PZ: The starting center position is a glaring weakness, but it’s slim pickings at this point in the wake of Brook Lopez signing with the Milwaukee Bucks. Alex Len, Greg Monroe and Channing Frye headline an uninspiring group of attainable 5s, and the Lakers would be wise to target the best players available rather than positional need. Shabazz Napier or Wayne Ellington would be a bit redundant in conjunction with the Rondo and Stephenson moves, but they are legitimate rotation-caliber players. The Lakers suited up 24 different players last season, so they should seize the opportunity to acquire quality depth while they can.
4. How much of a threat are the Clippers to the Lakers in the Kawhi Leonard Sweepstakes, now and into next summer?
AK: Without Jerry West playing four-dimensional chess beyond my imagination, the Clippers still feel like dark horses. Their assets are the most limited of any team linked to Leonard, and even with considerable 2019 cap space, they have to work the hardest to put a real team around him. Unless the Spurs don’t get any better offers, or just want to rub the Lakers’ nose in a deal by making them watch Leonard suit up across the hallway, the threat feels relatively limited.
(Having said that, should West somehow pull that rabbit out of his hat, I’d immediately be uncomfortable. It’s never optimal for a player to spend a year potentially enjoying another suitor’s culture, and if playing in L.A. is the primary goal, Leonard’s problem is potentially solved. Plus, as Paul George taught us, tangible evidence of how badly a team wants you – rather than taking your arrival for granted – is a powerful lure. I’d be way more frightened by Leonard spending a season in Philly, but it’s still not ideal.)
JB: This season, I don’t think the Clippers are much of a threat. If we’re comparing potential trade packages, the Celtics, Sixers and Lakers each have at least two to three offers that are better than the Clippers’ best offer (some combination of Tobias Harris, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson and future first-round picks). I don’t see the Spurs pulling the trigger on that deal based on the packages they have reportedly asked for. But if Leonard isn’t traded before next summer, and he enters the offseason as a free agent, I think the Clippers will be in the mix. They have cap flexibility (likely $50-70 million in cap space), the ability to make him the undisputed face of the franchise and a revamped organizational infrastructure.
BK: Now, not much. The Clippers just don’t have the type of trade assets to outbid the Lakers (or others) should San Antonio finally decide to pull the trigger on a deal. But next summer, they’re live. Even if you put more stock in reports that Kawhi’s desire to be in L.A. is more about the Lakers than Clippers, nobody seems to be excluding the possibility of LAC, who will have the flexibility to build a contender in 2019. Yes, the Lakers have LeBron, and the Clippers lack a star. But is that a draw for the Lakers or the Clips? Depends on what Kawhi wants.
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PZ: I do see the Clippers as a credible threat to sign Kawhi. As BK noted, that will hinge on what he wants. If he wants to be “the man” on a team in Los Angeles, that isn’t going to happen on the Lakers so long as LeBron James is wearing forum blue and gold. The Clippers are in a position where they can add him and then sign additional help that doesn’t threaten his position as the No. 1 option, although that might get pretty expensive in a league where as many as 25 teams will have significant cap space.
5. How would you seed the Western Conference as things stand today?
AK:
1. Golden State
2. Utah
3. Oklahoma City
4. Houston
5. New Orleans
6. Lakers
7. Portland
8. Denver
(Note to any Lakers fan offended by this prediction: Like last season, I think the standings will be extremely tight. Thus, a six-seed nominally different than the three.)
JB:
1. Golden State
2. Houston
3. Oklahoma City
4. Utah
5. Lakers
6. Minnesota
7. New Orleans
8. San Antonio (with Kawhi)
9. Denver (No. 8 if Spurs trade Kawhi)
The No. 1 seed is set in stone. As long as the Rockets re-sign Clint Capela, they’re still the second-best team in the West. After that, the Thunder and Jazz are in the next tier based on their elite defenses and continuity. The Lakers have the potential to get to as high as No. 3, but No. 5 is a more realistic landing spot for now. After that, the West is relatively wide open, with as many as seven other teams having a realistic shot at the postseason.
BK:
1. Golden State
2. Houston
3. Utah
4. Lakers, Minnesota, Portland, Oklahoma City, Denver, New Orleans (tie)
10. San Antonio
11. Clippers
How many Western Conference teams have, say, a 33-percent chance of winning 50 games? Ten, by my count. Denver (if Paul Millsap stays healthy) should be better. The Lakers have LeBron and another year of growth. Nobody, to this point, is really any worse. San Antonio won 47 games last year without anything meaningful from Kawhi, while the Pels made their run without Boogie Cousins. It’s brutal out here. We’re looking at another year where two or three games could separate 3 through 9 in the standings.
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PZ:
1. Golden State
2. Houston
3. Utah
4. Oklahoma City
5. Lakers
6. Denver
7. Minnesota
8. Portland
Golden State and Houston should win around 55 games, while I think Utah and OKC creep into the low 50s. The 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers were likely a 25-30 win team without LeBron, and I suspect he’ll have a similar impact on the Lakers, who will experience internal improvement amongst the young core as well.