A lot can change over the course of a week in the world of women’s college basketball. Some teams that looked as though they might limp into the field last week have fallen completely out of the running for an NCAA Tournament bid. Other long shots, like West Virginia, have inched in.
There are only a few more days to go until Selection Sunday, which means there’s plenty of bubble drama to come. And with a handful of conference tournaments still left to play — including the Big 12 — more changes can happen.
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Here’s our latest Bubble Watch:
Sitting pretty
Kansas (19-10, 9-9 Big 12; NET: 35, SOS: 47)
A stretch of three straight losses to West Virginia (NET: 61), Oklahoma (36) and Kansas State (67) looked dicey. But Kansas rebounded at just the right time with three consecutive wins, including a 98-93 win over Iowa State (14), to close out the regular season. Despite only two total wins against high-quality opponents, the Jayhawks’ strength of schedule has put them in a great position heading into the Big 12 tournament, where they will face TCU in the first round — an opponent they recently clobbered 84-61. Another win against the Horned Frogs, along with an upset or a solid game against Oklahoma in the second round, and Kansas can rest easy and prepare for the Big Dance.
🎬 Wrapped up the regular season with a W
Highlights vs TCU pic.twitter.com/7XDsVo3ECn
— Kansas Women’s Basketball (@KUWBball) March 6, 2023
Mississippi State (20-10, 9-7 SEC; NET: 39, SOS: 82)
The Bulldogs are currently projected by ESPN’s bracketology as one of the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament. Even though they recently lost to Texas A&M in the first round of the SEC tournament, conference play has helped boost Mississippi State’s NET ranking overall — beating Tennessee (15) and losing by just seven to undefeated South Carolina (1). But perhaps the biggest win for the Bulldogs was a 14-point victory against Arkansas (48), a team that also lingers on the bubble. Add in its 15-point win against Alabama (29), and Mississippi State gained an edge against middling teams in its own conference to likely secure a bid.
Marquette (21-10, 13-7 Big East; NET: 42, SOS: 23)
The Golden Eagles are one of five Big East teams that look worthy of being in the field, thanks to their notable upsets over Texas (11), Gonzaga (43) and UConn (2). Wins over DePaul (63), Seton Hall (66) and St. John’s (55) in the conference tournament also helped push Marquette ahead of the Red Storm in the bubble race as a potential No. 10 seed. Though they lost big to UConn in the conference semifinals, the Golden Eagles’ 6-1 record to finish the regular season, NET ranking and strength of schedule are enough to provide some breathing room before Selection Sunday.
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In for now
West Virginia (19-10, 10-8 Big 12; NET: 61, SOS: 76)
Last week, I had the Mountaineers on the outside looking in due to a lack of quality wins. But finishing with a three-game winning streak over Kansas State, Oklahoma State (47) and Baylor (33) helped sneak West Virginia back into the field as a possible First Four team. A regular-season sweep of Baylor, along with an upset against Iowa State, allowed the Mountaineers to leap over other bubble teams hanging on by thread. Though Oregon, Syracuse and Arkansas have a higher NET rating, they didn’t perform well in their conference tournaments. West Virginia not only finished with a winning conference record, it has a chance to improve its projected seed with the Big 12 tournament tipping off later this week.
Princeton (21-5, 12-2 Ivy League, NET: 40, SOS: 79)
Based on their overall record and the fact that the Tigers are tied for first place in the Ivy League, you’d think that would be enough to secure a bid. But once again, strength of schedule and key wins — or lack thereof in this case — come into the play. Princeton has a win against Columbia (45) but it remains the only victory over a top-50 NET team on its resume. Its most impressive game was a five-point loss to UConn. Still, the Tigers are on a 13-game winning streak, with their eyes firmly set on the Ivy League tournament. A championship will get them an automatic bid. But even if it comes down to a showdown with conference foe Columbia for the title and the Tigers come up short, they can still get in as a First Four team, which would mark only the second time the Ivy has earned two bids and they’d likely be the only mid-major conference with multiple bids this season.
Purdue (19-10, 9-8 Big Ten; NET: 49, SOS: 58)
Earning wins over other bubble teams competing for a tournament bid is crucial. Purdue did that earlier this season against Syracuse and Michigan State (46) and it’s been beneficial. The Boilermakers also have standout wins against Oklahoma State, Illinois (41) and Ohio State (16). Losing to Minnesota (101) before the Big Ten tournament could have been a dagger, but Purdue pulled out a key win over Wisconsin in the second round and gave Iowa a good fight in the quarterfinals. As a possible First Four team, Purdue would be one of seven Big Ten teams in the field thanks, in part, to Nebraska losing to Michigan State in the conference tourney.
Outside looking in
Syracuse (18-12, 9-9 ACC; NET: 57, SOS: 59)
The Orange were in last week. This week, they’re out. They needed a win against NC State in the second round of the ACC tournament to get a possible bid as a First Four team but came up dreadfully short with a 25-point loss. The margin is disappointing, especially considering Syracuse lost to the Wolfpack by only two points in the regular season. It was a simple win-and-you’re-in situation. Instead, Syracuse’s fate is now in the committee’s hands to decide if its resume, which includes a win against North Carolina (21), is enough.
Toledo (25-4, 16-2 MAC; NET: 69, SOS: 106)
After trailing Bowling Green (72) and Ball State (77) in the MAC standings, the Rockets flipped the script, beating both teams and winning the regular-season title after stringing together an impressive 13-game winning streak. Toledo’s best win of the season is a three-point victory over Michigan (26), but combined with its NET ranking and strength of schedule, its resume won’t get them in the tournament. The Rockets need to win the MAC tournament outright for an automatic bid. And considering they’ve already beaten the Falcons and Cardinals during the regular season, that route into March Madness is entirely possible.
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UMass (26-6, 14-2 A 10; NET: 59, SOS: 132)
There’s outside looking in, and then there’s way outside looking in with a set of binoculars. The Minutewomen seemingly had an automatic bid locked up as the projected conference tournament winner. But that’s why they play the games. Saint Louis (133) beat both Rhode Island (71) and UMass on its way to a championship and its first appearance in the NCAA Tournament. At this point, with a poor strength of schedule and zero quality NET wins, the Minutewomen don’t have much else to hang their hats on and will likely be sitting this one out.
Popped
DePaul (16-17, 8-12 Big East; NET: 63, SOS: 54)
After an up-and-down regular season that included one key win against Maryland (13), the Blue Demons were relegated to trying to get a bid via the Big East tournament. A convincing first-round victory over Providence looked promising, and DePaul nearly upset Villanova (12) in the second round. Unfortunately for sophomore phenom Aneesah Morrow and the Blue Demons, their season won’t end with the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons — a rarity in Lincoln Park. Despite a respectable NET ranking and decent strength of schedule, they just don’t have the wins necessary to propel them into the field.
Kansas State (16-15, 5-13 Big 12; NET: 67, SOS: 41)
The Wildcats were already on the outs before they lost four out of their last five games. Oklahoma and Texas were challenges, but giving away a game to bubble cohort West Virginia and losing to last-place TCU didn’t do them any favors. Right now, Kansas State’s only hope of making the field is a Big 12 tournament title. Is it impossible? No. Is it likely? Not with Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia and Oklahoma State also vying for the championship.
Michigan State (16-14, 7-10 Big Ten; NET: 46, SOS: 90)
Highlights from today’s quarterfinal game.#RiseUp × #SpartanStrongHER pic.twitter.com/8cGJcYiPul
— Michigan State Women’s Basketball (@MSU_WBasketball) March 3, 2023
As the Big Ten tournament unfolded, it looked as though the Spartans were going to make a legitimate run. After finishing the season with four wins in five games, Michigan State topped Nebraska (44) in the first round. They then led Indiana at halftime in the second round. But the Spartans were unable to complete the upset, ending not only their conference tournament title dreams but also their chances of making it into the field of 68. With too many bubble teams ahead of them in the pecking order and only one quality regular-season win against Indiana, Michigan State is likely out.
(Photo of Kaitlyn Chen and Julia Cunningham: Rachel O’Driscoll / Getty Images)
