The best spring trainings are the ones where nothing happens, and thus there’s a special kind of irony for the Mets to get their worst news of the spring so far on their first off day. New York learned Monday that starter José Quintana has a small stress fracture on the fifth rib on his left side. Quintana will fly back to New York to undergo more tests; the team does not currently have a timeline for his return.
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Until that point, the first half of spring had transpired encouragingly for the Mets, which is to say more or less uneventfully. Steve Cohen described the atmosphere at camp as “incredible” and “the best vibe I’ve felt since I started this.” The Athletic’s Mets beat writers Will Sammon and Tim Britton sat down to discuss their takeaways from the first three weeks of the spring.
How would you describe the vibe in Port St. Lucie?
Sammon: Businesslike. Despite not being in the lineup that day, Francisco Lindor traveled 45 minutes to a game in Jupiter a couple of weeks ago for extra infield work and batting practice. Since he’d soon be leaving the Mets’ camp because of the World Baseball Classic, Lindor wanted to be prepared for both the tournament and season. Over on the pitching side, Justin Verlander has gone about his work so swiftly and efficiently that he has pointed out on multiple occasions how the regular season becomes more of an opportunity for relationship-building for teams because of the downtime. From the accomplished veterans to the guys who left for the WBC to the youngsters looking to prove themselves, the Mets have operated this spring with an apparent strong focus. That said, manager Buck Showalter wisely allotted time during a lull in the schedule for the team’s talent show, and plenty of players such as Lindor and Eduardo Escobar have been spotted smiling frequently.
Britton: Confident. The Mets know they were a good team last year and that they’ve filled in and supplemented the roster enough to be a good team again this year. They’re also aware they were not good enough in 2022, and thus there isn’t an empty swagger in the room.
I’ve been struck so far by the excitement of some of the newer players in camp — less the established veterans like Justin Verlander or David Robertson and more the guys attempting to have a big-league role on a good team for the first time. Yes, those guys are always excited at the chance to play in the majors. But many of the relievers competing for a spot in the Opening Day bullpen and some of the younger position players fighting for a more prominent role have widened their eyes at the thought of doing it for a team with legitimate World Series aspirations.
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The most interesting development in Mets camp so far
Sammon: … is that the pitching depth may already get tested. On Monday, the Mets announced Quintana’s diagnosis. He planned to travel to New York for further imaging. His timetable remains unclear. This was the fear with the Mets’ rotation, that their age put them at a higher level of injury risk. And it’s why the Mets have insisted on keeping David Peterson and Tylor Megill stretched out as starters. Just in case.
In other pitching-related injury news, the Mets avoided a scare when Peterson was diagnosed with just a left foot contusion after taking a comebacker in his appearance on Saturday. Peterson was always going to be counted on at some point given the Mets’ plan to deploy a six-man rotation at times this season, but they may end up needing him sooner than anticipated, depending on Quintana’s timetable.
Britton: … is the quality of play from New York’s position player prospects. Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio have all made loud impacts so far in the Grapefruit League, and those are the guys for whom spring training results might actually mean something. That trio has combined for six homers to go along with a .377/.411/.792/1.203 collective slash line (over 56 plate appearances).
Spring training performance doesn’t answer all questions. The defense from those three has not been as sparkling as the offense, and Mauricio’s main offensive question mark remains his swing decisions. But for the shortstop in particular, building off outstanding work in winter ball and carrying it right into spring training is a really encouraging sign.
The most important development in Mets camp so far
Sammon: … is Kodai Senga pitching as advertised. While no one expects a completely linear path toward success, people around the Mets anticipate Senga performing as an impact pitcher. When it comes to Senga, rival scouts anticipated him to struggle with command and rack up high pitch counts at times while also showcasing undeniable stuff. Senga displayed all of that against the Cardinals on Sunday in his only spring training start so far. His season will likely feature some hiccups because of all the variables he must get used to, but as long as Senga continues to improve and make adjustments, he should be able to fulfill some expectations because his velocity, movement and array of pitches look strong.
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Britton: … is the one mentioned above: Quintana’s rib injury. Chris Sale (four months with a stress fracture in his ribcage) and Stephen Strasburg (the last three-plus months with a stress reaction in his ribs) missed significant time last season with similar injuries. The Mets hope Quintana’s is not quite that serious. The Mets have built up an enviable supply of starting pitching depth and they have a good plan for how to deploy it. But those plans go out the window when they need all that depth in the regular rotation.
I’m most surprised by
Sammon: … not too many people sounding overly worried about Omar Narváez missing time with his new team to play in the WBC. Aside from the obvious injury concerns with the star players, Narváez’s absence is notable because he’s the Mets’ new catcher and he’s tasked with learning a new staff. For Narváez, representing Venezuela completes a career goal. The way he sees it, he may not ever get the opportunity to do so again. In explaining away some worries, people around the Mets pointed to their veteran stars — Max Scherzer and Verlander — knowing themselves so well, Narváez arriving a couple of weeks before camp officially opened to get a headstart on relationships, and the familiarity he already had as an opponent against Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. Even Scherzer said the pitcher-catcher relationship requires time and things may not get really comfortable until June, after some in-game conversations — or arguments — are had between the two. If anything, the hardest part for Narváez would be getting back up to speed on relievers.
Britton: … the level of experimentation with the new rules, as embodied by Scherzer. I probably shouldn’t be surprised about the way Scherzer is using the spring as a means of testing different strategies to mess with hitters’ timing. It burned him a little in his last start, but you want those growing pains to be felt in March and not April or May. I’m not sure just how much of that experimentation Scherzer will bring into the regular season. I watched Marcus Stroman spend multiple springs working on delays in his delivery to keep hitters off balance; he almost never used them in the regular season. And whatever advantages a pitcher does gain right away will diminish over time, as hitters grow accustomed to those strategies. But hey, the Mets lost the National League East via a tiebreaker last year; any advantage, no matter how small, is worth the Grapefruit League squeeze.
I remain skeptical about
Sammon: … the Mets having a great replacement for Trevor Williams. An unsung hero last season, Williams provided value as a starter and a reliever, in short outings and multi-inning games. Williams, who chose to try his luck as a starter with the Nationals in free agency, has left a void. However, the Mets’ roster contains options: Joey Lucchesi and Elieser Hernandez appear to be the most logical candidates. Luchessi said he’s open to starting or relieving; he’s down for whatever helps the team. The Mets may prefer him operating as a starter for depth purposes. But if the injuries stop where they are and José Butto continues to show improvement in his arsenal, then there may not be as much of a need for Lucchesi to linger as a depth starter. It’s not a role that generates a lot of headlines, but it certainly matters and will be worth paying attention to for the remaining weeks of spring training.
Britton: … the Mets’ willingness to turn over an everyday role to their young players. Yes, Billy Eppler has said publicly he was more aggressive in acquiring pitching than hitting this past winter because of the chance of internal help from the likes of Baty, Vientos and Francisco Álvarez. But the Mets also signed Narváez (which makes it tougher for Álvarez to get playing time), signed Tommy Pham (which makes it tougher for Vientos to get playing time), and tried to sign Carlos Correa (which would have made it tougher for Baty to get playing time).
So, even with what I mentioned above, I think it’s going to take more than a nice spring training for any of those guys to unseat those ahead of them on the depth chart. Baty probably has the best chance; Eduardo Escobar lost half the third-base job to lefty-swinging Luis Guillorme last year, and that can happen again, eventually. But I think it’s likelier that the Mets slow-play the changing of the guard at any of those positions, waiting until the team could use a spark and the door is being actively knocked down.
I’m still looking forward to
Sammon: … watching how the Mets’ designated hitter candidates perform and how those players impact their roster. They have the left side figured out with Daniel Vogelbach, but the right side lingers as a question. Darin Ruf (wrist) has yet to play in a Grapefruit League game. The Mets’ alternatives from the right-handed batting side for their DH platoon include Pham and Vientos. Ruf can also play some left field and first base. The Mets have some versatility in those areas for backup capacities. Showalter has mentioned a couple of different players being in line to receive reps at first base with Pete Alonso heading to the WBC such as Mark Canha and Luis Guillorme. On March 1, Showalter suggested that Ruf would probably appear in a game after the Mets’ first off day, which was Monday. It remains a big spring training for Ruf, who needs to show that he’s healthy and he can produce.
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Britton: … seeing what Starling Marte looks like following his pair of groin surgeries in the offseason. Marte’s value to the 2022 Mets was underlined when he missed most of September with a fractured finger, and he looms as one of the critical pieces to making this lineup work again in 2023. I don’t know that I’d call Marte the most valuable or the most important Met entering this season; that’s probably still Pete Alonso, because his offensive profile is different from so many of his teammates. But I do think there’s a relatively wide range of outcomes for Marte this season, especially coming off the kind of difficult offseason he just had. If he’s the player he was last season, the Mets should have as good a chance as anyone in baseball to win the World Series. If he’s not, that task gets a lot harder.
(Top photo of Brett Baty: Rich Storry / USA Today)