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Every season, Cinderella gets fitted for a new slipper across March, with star mid-major players rising to the occasion and leading their teams to upset victories over the biggest programs in college basketball. Trying to figure out who those players are, though, can often be the tough part when filling out your bracket.
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I’m here to try to help you with that. Below, I’ve broken down six mid-major players in the men’s NCAA Tournament that, by the end of the weekend, could be household names. I created a few arbitrary rules for myself. I had to pick at least one player on each of the 12-, 13-, 14- and 15-seed lines, plus two additional players. I also had to pick at least one player from each region to write about in order to trickle across the bracket.
Max Abmas
6-1 senior guard | No. 12 Oral Roberts (playing No. 5 Duke in East Region)
Who is Max Abmas? This is more like a “re-introduction,” as Abmas and Oral Roberts’ coach Paul Mills were the architects behind the Golden Eagles’ run to the Sweet 16 back in 2021 as No. 15 seed, beating Ohio State and Florida. After a year riddled with injuries in 2022, Abmas is back, carrying an Eagles’ team currently on a 17-game win streak. They’re slated to be a popular upset pick against Duke because of that name recognition and winning streak.
But there’s more to it than that. Whereas the two-time Summit League Player of the Year was actually leading the country in scoring back in 2021, he’s merely sixth this year as he’s surrounded by an even better core group of players. Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover is a 7-foot-5 pick-and-pop partner at the center position who can shoot over the top of nearly every opponent. Junior guard Isaac McBride is a Kansas transfer that gives the team a secondary ballhandler to make them even more dangerous when Abmas is on the weak side. Role players Kareem Thompson and Carlos Jurgens have gone from sophomores to seniors and become even more well-rounded. The big key here worth noting above all, though, is that Oral Roberts’ defense has drastically improved from the 2021 version. Whereas they were outside of the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, in 2021, they’re actually hovering right around the top 100 now. Vanover’s ability to protect the paint and rebound is the biggest part of that. The Golden Eagles were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country in 2021, but they’re actually above average this year.
Still, Abmas is the one that makes it all go. Within Mills’ spread ball-screen attack, Abmas is nearly unguardable unless you have versatile bigs who can move their feet on defense. They’ll set ball screens up to 30 feet away from the rim. With his unlimited range from 3, you can’t just leave him alone out there, either. According to Synergy, Abmas hit 35 percent of his 54 3-point attempts from at least 28 feet away from the rim this season. But because you have to respect him out there, it just opens up so much on the interior, too. That’s why this is a top-25 offense in the country. Look at the way they demolished North Dakota State big man Grant Nelson — an NBA Draft prospect in his own right — in the first half of the Summit League title game. If Mills can find a weakness in your roster, he’s going to exploit it again and again. And notice how it wasn’t just Abmas; McBride and the others get in on the action. They’re an exceptionally difficult guard because of the oceans of space they put big men into.
What does the matchup look like? It’ll be fascinating, if only because the Blue Devils have mobile bigs and a number of different ways they can defend these high-screen actions. With star freshman Dereck Lively II, Duke has been versatile in screen coverages, though the preference is typically to play drop coverage where he sinks into the paint. But don’t expect that against Oral Roberts and Abmas. Lively has also showcased the ability to play more at the level of the screen and slide his feet until his guard can recover, or to even hard-hedge and almost blitz the ballhandler in order to get it out of the primary player’s hands. But merely by pulling Lively and his 7-foot-6 wingspan away from the rim, the Golden Eagles are winning. However, if that doesn’t work, the team can merely just decide to play “small” with 7-footer Kyle Filipowski at the five. Filipowski has gone underrated as a defensive player this season, with his ability to move his feet shining well while he plays the four next to Lively. Heck, if that also fails, the team could even go super small and play 6-8 freshman Mark Mitchell at the five and switch actions across the board, with lineups including Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor, Dariq Whitehead and Jacob Grandison.
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That’s why this is the most fun game of the first round this year. The chess match between Jon Scheyer and Mills is going to be a blast. And then on top of it, Oral Roberts has to figure out how to guard Filipowski on the other end, as Lively-Filipowski lineups will likely create some real pressure points in terms of Oral Roberts’ size. The Blue Devils are among the hottest teams in the country, but Oral Roberts is a live 12-seed here. And it’s largely because Abmas is the perfect guard to run Mills’ offensive scheme.
Jalen Slawson
6-7 senior forward | No. 13 Furman (playing No. 4 Virginia in South Region)
Who is Jalen Slawson? It’s ironic that the Paladins will face Virginia in the first NCAA Tournament appearance of Bob Richey’s terrific six-year run at Furman that has featured 138 wins and a 71.8 winning percentage. Slawson is actually the ideal forward that Tony Bennett tends to look for on the recruiting trail and in the portal. At 6-foot-7, the SoCon Player of the Year is a well-rounded Swiss-army knife of a player who excels across all facets. He won the league’s defensive player of the year award last season, and has averaged 1.6 blocks and 1.6 steals per game over the last two seasons. He’ll rotate across from the weak side and catch you at the rim if you go up without aggression, and he can slide his feet and play on the perimeter against all but the quickest players in college hoops.
But then on offense, he’s the perfect complement to senior guard Mike Bothwell, the team’s leading scorer at 18 points per game. Slawson averages 15 points per game himself by shooting the 3 well in addition to finishing at the rim. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 39.4 percent from 3 and 76.6 percent from the line. But more importantly, he eases the creative burden on Bothwell and point guard JP Pegues as a point forward. There just isn’t really anything that he can’t do.
Sometimes the team will play small with Slawson at the five and force bigs out into space against him. He’s lethal when that happens, because there are few point forwards around the country better at executing high-level bounce passes to cutters. The team will run horns sets with him at the foul line area, where he can act both as a dribble-hand-off hub or as an initiator looking for backdoor cuts. He can grab and go on the break to lead the offense himself, or can post up and draw doubles. But most often, he’ll trail the play and receive the ball at the top of the key, allowing him to survey the court and start processing exactly how to attack the defenders around him. To top that off, Furman’s players are well-drilled around him. As soon as he sees an advantage or draws the double, Slawson’s going to spot it and find his open man. Slawson’s passing ability and the team’s cutting around him is a big part of why Furman has made a higher percentage of their 2-point field goal attempts — 59.1 percent — than any team in the country.
What does the matchup look like? The primary matchup for Slawson will likely be Jayden Gardner. Gardner is a really good defensive player who has held up really well in matchups against skilled bigs like Paolo Banchero previously. This should work well when Furman big Garrett Hien is on the court. It’ll allow Virginia to play Gardner in his typical spot at the four. But what happens when Furman goes small with Slawson at the five with skilled players around him? The season-ending injury to skilled four-man Ben VanderPlas is incredibly important here, as he gave the Cavaliers real lineup versatility against small-ball units. Without him, Virginia is more reliant upon slower, bigger centers Kadin Shedrick and Francisco Caffaro to eat up minutes, as well as freshman forward Ryan Dunn. Shedrick and Caffaro are just poor matchups in a game like this where Slawson can pull them away from the rim while Furman surrounds him with perimeter players. I love Dunn long-term, but he’s fairly untested at this point.
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Essentially, Furman is going to put Virginia into some situations that are really unexplored in this game. Per Pivot Analysis, the team has only played the Kihei Clark–Reece Beekman–Isaac McKneely–Armaan Franklin-Gardner lineup for 17 total minutes this season. They’ve played the Clark-Beekman-Franklin-Dunn-Gardner lineup more often, but that’s still only 28 minutes in total. Those are the lineups Virginia will likely need in this game. Both lineups have had success, but Furman is well-schooled and experienced enough to take advantage of any communication-based mistake or any flaw that comes from playing non-experienced lineups and players. And again, all of this is before we get to the offensive end of the floor, where Virginia is outside of the top 70 nationally. This isn’t a guaranteed upset, but Virginia should be on alert here in large part because of how Slawson’s presence will force them into tougher spots.
Sincere Carry
6-3 senior guard | No. 13 Kent State (playing No. 4 Indiana in Midwest Region)
Who is Sincere Carry? Kent State is a very dangerous No. 13 seed that has proven it can compete on the highest levels already this season. Go watch the Flashes’ five-point road loss to Houston earlier this season, or their seven-point loss on the road to Gonzaga if you want evidence of that. You could argue that the Flashes were really just a standout performance from Carry in one of those two games away from pulling a massive upset.
If they get one against Indiana, my bet is that they pull off the upset. Carry is the MAC Player of the Year this season, the kind of 23-year-old guard whom coaches dream of having on their roster. After starting at Duquesne and averaging double-figures in scoring in each of his first two seasons, Carry wasn’t happy with the program and decided to go to Kent State. Immediately, he became a star. He averaged 18 points and five assists last year as Kent came up short in the MAC championship game against Akron. This season, he wouldn’t be denied, leading them back to the title game and dropping 26 points. He’s just one of those guys who wants the big moment, and that you rely on in clutch situations.
Carry’s game is all about pressure on both ends of the court. Offensively, if he sees an opening out on the break, he’ll press the ball down the defense’s throat. In the halfcourt, he’ll play in ball screens and put pressure on the paint. Sometimes he’ll get all the way to the rim, but he’s also more than comfortable stopping in the midrange to find a little floater or a turnaround midrange jumper. Then as a playmaker for others, he’ll consistently find his man if he’s open, although the team’s only real reliable shooter from distance currently is Jalen Sullinger, as speedy guard Giovanni Santiago remains doubtful for the first round.
What does the matchup look like? Where that pressure comes into play more, though, is on defense. Carry is a multi-time all-defense member in the MAC, constantly looking to hunt passing lanes with his quick hands and reactions as well as crawl into another player’s handle. He’s not the only one, either. His partner in the backcourt, Malique Jacobs, was also all-defense in the MAC and posted a top-15 steal rate in the country. And that’s where the matchup with Indiana becomes particularly intriguing. Carry and Jacobs will face off with 6-foot-6 lead guard Jalen Hood-Schifino — a potential first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, but who has real ball-control issues from time to time. Indiana played five games against opponents that force turnovers on over 20 percent of their opponents’ possessions; they lost four of them. Kent State forces turnovers on 22.6 percent of its opponents’ possessions, the highest percentage of any team that Indiana has played this season.
I’m actually picking Kent State to beat Indiana, and it’s that specific matchup that is the biggest reason why. Carry and Jacobs are tough, older guards going against a backcourt that can be pressured into making questionable decisions. As long as Carry doesn’t shoot 2-of-22 like he did against Houston, Kent State is well-positioned to cause Indiana issues.
Ajay Mitchell
6-5 sophomore guard | No. 14 UC Santa Barbara (playing No. 3 Baylor in South Region)
Who is Ajay Mitchell? One of the best scoring guards whom no one knows about, Mitchell went from the Big West Freshman of the Year last year to the league’s player of the year this season. Mitchell’s father, Barry, is a former professional who played overseas in Belgium, which is where Ajay grew up. Former associate head coach John Rillie — now the Perth Wildcats head coach over in the Australian NBL — found him over there, got him to the U.S.
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Mitchell’s game, like many guards raised and developed in Europe, is all about pace. Few guards in the country possess the footwork that the 6-foot-5 lead guard has. He plays with terrific deceleration steps. Despite not being the most explosively athletic player, he still has a suddenness to his game because of his ability to know how to change speeds. He’s a smooth lefty who essentially lives in the paint, averaging 16 points and five assists per contest. But stylistically, there’s more to it than that.
Mitchell doubles almost as a contortionist, with a wide variety of Euro-steps and step-through moves that slalom his way through defenders in the paint. He’s not a high-flyer, but he made over 68 percent of his shots at the rim in the paint in halfcourt settings, a truly ridiculous number for a player his size. Over half of his points come at the basket. He’ll throw up inside-hand finishes, little touch floaters, and even little hook shots over bigger players. His speciality? A variety of little finger rolls with flourishes. You name it, he’s got it in his toolbox, with either hand. His last-step acceleration to get past defenders is ridiculous. The key to shutting down UC Santa Barbara’s offense is finding a way to stay in front of Mitchell. Once he gets penetration, he’s going to find his way around the help and he’s going to finish at the basket.
What does the matchup look like? The good news for Mitchell? Baylor has struggled to keep guards in front all year. Jaren Holmes, Markquis Nowell, Mike Miles and Dajuan Harris Jr at different times have hit them for big games. I would bet Mitchell does too, especially given that the Bears have allowed teams to shoot 53.3 percent from 2-point range against them this season, outside of the top 300 nationally and dead last in the Big 12. A lot of those guards also had success as distributors, in large part because of that inability to stop guards at the point of attack. Baylor also allowed one of the worst assist rates in the NCAA this season. Essentially, guards beat their man off the dribble, force the help, and either score themselves or kick it out to others. UC Santa Barbara can space it around Mitchell, with former Oregon Duck Miles Norris standing out as a 6-foot-10 stretch big who made 38 percent of his 3s.
The main issue for UC Santa Barbara is that they’re going to give up as many as they score against Baylor’s No. 2 offense nationally, per KenPom. That’s going to be an issue. If Baylor has just an awful shooting night, UCSB could keep this close. But even if Mitchell goes nuts, the Bears should be able to score 85-plus and win.
Tucker DeVries
6-7 sophomore wing | No. 12 Drake (playing No. 5 Miami in Midwest Region)
Who is Tucker DeVries? DeVries is a legitimate high-major talent playing at the mid-major level because he chose to play for his father, Drake head coach Darian DeVries. A borderline top-100 recruit nationally, DeVries bet that scouts would be able to find him no matter where he played. He made the right choice, as the 6-foot-7 wing won the Missouri Valley Player of the Year award as a sophomore.
A big part of the reason he made that right choice, though, is the system his father/coach employs. A long-time assistant under elite offensive minds Dana Altman and Greg McDermott, DeVries has taken much of the off-ball magic and floor-spacing principles he learned while under their tutelage and employed it in his own ways. One of the first players that Darian DeVries coached at Creighton was Kyle Korver, and it’s easy to see the similarities in how Korver was utilized and how DeVries is used. Throughout Drake’s matchup with Miami, you can expect to see a lot of pindowns and flare actions where the express goal is to try to free DeVries. Many of them work.
It’s hard to find shooters who can stop, set their feet when their momentum is going entirely away from the basket, catch the ball off the hop, and fire all in one motion. It’s even harder to find guys who are 6-foot-7 and can do it at volume. DeVries is more than this. He averaged 19 points per game, and did so by also being able to use the threat of his shot to put the ball on the deck when necessary. But the constant threat of the 3 is a big part of why he’s successful.
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The Bulldogs’ offense is not just merely a Hey Arnold-ian “Pass the Ball to Tucker” enterprise, though. They have the oldest backcourt in the country, with a pair of 25-year-olds in D.J. Wilkins and Roman Penn. Wilkins is a lights-out shooter and defender, while Penn is a terrific playmaker and table-setter. Fifth-year starter Garrett Sturtz is a tough former walk-on who is the school’s all-time rebounding leader at only 6-foot-3. They bring another fifth-year player off the bench in Sardaar Calhoun, and their starting center is also a fifth-year in Darnell Brodie. All of these guys are reliable performers who won’t be awed by the moment. Sturtz, Wilkins and Brodie were all starters on the 2021 team that won a First Four matchup with Wichita State before running into an Evan Mobley-led USC team that went to the Elite Eight.
What does the matchup look like? Miami is going to have its hands full against Drake, especially if the Hurricanes are without Norchad Omier, who was injured in the team’s ACC tournament run. The Canes’ offense is superb, led by Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller and Nijel Pack. But the defense has had questions all season. The odds are that Wong and Pack will be able to push tempo and try to run the Bulldogs out of the gym. Then, Miami will throw Miller on DeVries and ask him to swallow him up with length and athleticism. But Drake has enough firepower from beyond the 3-point line to where they can cause a defense prone to breakdowns in communication problems.
Drew Pember
6-11 senior forward | No. 15 UNC Asheville (playing No. 2 UCLA in West Region)
Who is Drew Pember? Pember is one of the best stories in college basketball. A fun personality mixed with flowing hair, Pember won a state championship in Knoxville, Tennessee, in high school before going to play for the Volunteers. While the tools were readily apparent, he struggled to make an impact at the highest level. So he transferred down to UNC Asheville following the 2021 season. One of his high school teammates, Trent Stephney, was on the team. Plus, Mike Morrell’s free-flowing offensive structure was much more conducive to his outside-in game.
The results were immediate. Pember won the Big South Player of the Year this season and back-to-back defensive player of the year awards. He averaged 21 points, 9 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.3 blocks this year, becoming the first player in at least the last 30 years of college basketball to average those numbers while hitting at least 50 3s and playing at least 25 games. He’s a legitimate game-changer every time he takes the court because of how versatile his skill set is.
Need someone to get hot from 3? Pember shot 37 percent from distance, including a monster 48-point outing against Presbyterian that included five 3s in five minutes to start the game. How about someone to just stem the tide and draw a foul for your team to create easy buckets? His herky-jerky body control and offensive footwork saw him draw a massive nine foul shots per game this season. He’ll take centers off the bounce and drive to the rim with ease because of how incredible his coordination is at 6-foot-11. How about someone who will rise to the moment and lift your team? Pember and senior guard Taijon Jones combined for 17 points in the final 4:30 of Asheville’s Big South title game against Campbell, leading the team back from a 14-point hole with 7:30 left.
The Jones-Pember duo is one of the toughest guards in all of college, largely because of how they space the floor and because of the multiple ways Pember can beat you. He can pick-and-pop, can short-roll into the midrange area, or can just get all the way to the rim to finish at the basket. He’s a good offensive rebounder and is happy to sit in the dunker spot. Then, the 6-foot-5 Jones is a terrific shooter who made 46 percent from 3 on over 200 attempts this season. And Asheville is more than willing to let those dudes fire not just from college range, but from NBA range. On shots at least 24 feet away from the hoop, Pember and Jones combined to shoot 45 percent this season, per Synergy. You have to pick this team up early. If you don’t, you’re going to give up 3s.
What does the matchup look like? The issue for Asheville is it’s going up against a terrific UCLA defense that is ranked No. 1 in the country according to KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Bruins have been mean on defense all year, on top of being old and tough. Having said that, there might be some cracks in the armor. Do-it-all defensive wing Jaylen Clark — my favorite for National Defensive Player of the Year — will miss the rest of the season due to injury. Additionally, center Adem Bona missed the Pac-12 tournament championship following a shoulder injury. If Bona doesn’t play, Asheville is live. UCLA’s frontcourt depth is not all that strong, particularly in a game against Pember and his ability to draw fouls. Mac Etienne fouls his opponents 7.5 times per 40 minutes, per sports-reference.com. Kenneth Nwuba, who started the Pac-12 championship game against Arizona, isn’t much better at 6.1 fouls per 40. Both fouled out of that title game trying to manage the front line of Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Tubelis, with Tubelis getting to the line 11 times.
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If Bona plays, he’s a terrific matchup for UCLA against Pember because he combines strength with the kind of foot speed necessary to stay in front of Pember’s drives. In that vein, it would be a terrific matchup that NBA scouts will be particularly interested to see, as Pember has drawn some legitimate attention due to his versatility. But pay attention to the injury report on this one as the week progresses. There might be an opening for No. 15-seeded Asheville because their superstar big is exactly the kind of player that can cause problems against UCLA’s backup centers.
(Top photo of Oral Roberts’ Max Abmas: Steven Branscombe / USA Today)
