5 Twins players who will beat their projections in 2023: Gleeman’s picks to click

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 27: Griffin Jax #22 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during the fourth inning at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 27, 2023 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
By Aaron Gleeman
Mar 20, 2023

I went back and forth about what to call the five players featured in this article.

Are they breakout candidates? Or sleeper picks? Or maybe just underrated?

Each of those labels seems mostly right, but not quite, so I’ll go with the vague but alliterative “picks to click” and hope that the following explanation suffices.

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My goal is to highlight five Twins players I believe will out-perform their 2023 projections, with the added twist of limiting my options to unproven players yet to produce 2.0 Wins Above Replacement in a season and not projected to do so by FanGraphs this year. In other words, no taking the easy way with, say, Pablo López (2.8 WAR in 2022) or Jose Miranda (3.1 projected WAR for 2023).

Here are my five Twins picks to click for 2023.

Griffin Jax, RP

ZiPS projection: 4.65 ERA, 87 ERA+, 0.2 WAR

Like any worthwhile projection system, ZiPS evaluates Griffin Jax based on his multi-year track record and not just last season. That’s generally a feature, not a bug, but it can sometimes lead ZiPS astray with a late bloomer like Jax. Once a marginal starter prospect who got clobbered as a 26-year-old rookie in 2021, he moved to the bullpen last season and looked like a totally different pitcher.

ZiPS sees Jax as a 28-year-old with one good season and a lot of mediocrity on his résumé, and understandably projects mediocrity in 2023. And maybe that’ll prove accurate, but I’m convinced Jax’s past work as a starter is barely relevant at this point. His velocity and overall raw stuff jumped dramatically in relief, and he’s looked even more electric this spring.

Jax’s average fastball rose from 92.6 mph in 2021 to 95.4 mph in 2022, and of late he’s occasionally flirted with triple digits. Relief work also fully unleashed Jax’s slider, which he threw 3-4 mph harder last season while upping its usage from 31 to 48 percent. His changeup is a decent third pitch versus lefties and he’s been tinkering with a new cutter that’s shown some promise.

Jax was really good last season, quickly working his way from long reliever to setup man while posting a 3.36 ERA and 78-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 72 innings. ZiPS is skeptical, which is fair given his career-long track record. I’m a full-on believer, and wouldn’t be surprised if Jax is one of the best setup men in the league this season. He’s become a legit late-inning weapon.

Nick Gordon, OF/IF

ZiPS projection: .258/.304/.416, 104 wRC+, 1.0 WAR

Nick Gordon is a late bloomer like Jax, but with even less of a track record of success, breaking through in the second half of last season at age 26. However, his hard-hit rates and exit velocities were trending in the right direction before that thanks to finally being able to put on weight after years of health problems and working with first-year hitting coach David Popkins to retool his swing.

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Gordon was the No. 5 pick in the 2014 draft, but his prospect shine was mostly gone after years of struggling in the minors. Light-hitting shortstops who can’t really handle shortstop don’t have much of a big-league future, but Gordon has resurrected his career by getting healthy, learning to play the outfield on the fly and tapping into power beyond anything anyone ever expected.

He’s hit .261/.308/.403 with a 101 OPS+ in 209 games for the Twins, nearly identical to his 2023 projection. And that’s logical, certainly. In fact, it’s giving Gordon credit for being better than his spotty minor-league résumé suggested. But he’s capable of more, which he showed by hitting .279/.328/.453 with eight homers and 26 doubles/triples in 97 games after June 1 last season.

Gordon’s ability to drive the ball to all fields is new, but it’s real. Byron Buxton (.509) and Carlos Correa (.482) were the only Twins to post a higher expected slugging percentage than Gordon (.464) last season, and even slightly improved plate discipline could take him to another level. Don’t let the slight frame and punchless track record fool you, this version of Gordon can hit.

Bailey Ober, SP

ZiPS projection: 4.00 ERA, 101 ERA+, 1.3 WAR

Barring an injury to one of the five starters ahead of him on the rotation depth chart, Bailey Ober may begin this season as an extremely overqualified Triple-A pitcher. Ober has already shown he’s a good big-league starter with a 3.82 ERA in 148 innings for the Twins since a mid-2021 debut, but nagging injuries have made it tough to rely on the 6-foot-9 right-hander for long stretches.

That’s part of why the Twins made rotation depth such a priority this offseason, trading Luis Arraez for Pablo López despite already having five spots filled and possibly pushing Ober back to the minors — temporarily — at age 27. Another possibility is biding time in a long-relief role, but the Twins would prefer Ober continue to develop as a starter and his injury history makes a relief plan tricky.

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Ober initially made a name for himself in the minors as a low-velocity control artist, posting great numbers amid natural skepticism. He’s since worked with Twins coaches to get into better shape and smooth out his mechanics, and the results are incredible. He’s topped 94 mph with his fastball this spring, nearly unrecognizable from the high-80s velocity he once had.

Ober also tweaked his slider in mid-2021, throwing it harder and generating dominant swing-and-miss rates since. If his changeup or curveball becomes a reliable third pitch versus lefties, Ober could have No. 3 or even No. 2 starter upside. For now he’s the No. 6 starter on his own team, but he’ll get a shot to stick in the rotation soon enough and a healthy Ober could be really exciting.

Trevor Larnach, OF

ZiPS projection: .234/.315/.374, 99 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

We know a few things for certain about Trevor Larnach after two major-league seasons. One, he can produce when healthy, hitting .262/.361/.445 through his first 50 games of 2021 and .300/.375/.511 through his first 30 games last year. Unfortunately, we also know he’s had trouble staying healthy and he’s struggled mightily when trying to play with hand, groin and core muscle injuries.

Larnach hit .156 in his final 29 games of 2021 and .143 in his final 21 games of 2022, ending both seasons on the injured list. Those health-related slumps have dragged his overall numbers down to the point that a .234/.315/.374 projection is nearly identical to his .226/.316/.371 career line with the Twins, but Larnach is pretty clearly capable of much more if he can just avoid getting dinged up.

As a 26-year-old with a measly .687 OPS and 94 OPS+ through 130 big-league games, Larnach needs a healthy, productive 2023 season to solidify his standing in the Twins’ long-term plans and avoid being surpassed by promising prospects and MLB-ready left-handed hitters Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien. And by this time next year, Emmanuel Rodriguez may also be in the outfield picture.

I’m still a believer in Larnach as a potential impact hitter — think .260 with 25 homers and 70 walks — and he’s also a better baserunner and corner outfielder than his bulky 6-foot-4 frame would suggest. Whether he makes the Opening Day roster or waits his turn at Triple-A St. Paul, the 2018 first-round pick will get plenty of opportunities with the Twins this season.

Jovani Moran, RP

ZiPS projection: 3.82 ERA, 106 ERA+, 0.4 WAR

ZiPS expects Jovani Moran to be a good, solid middle reliever with a 3.82 ERA that’s slightly better than league average, a pretty nice rookie-year projection for a mid-tier prospect. I just think the 25-year-old left-hander is capable of much more after dominating in the high minors and striking out 64 batters in his first 49 innings for the Twins.

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Twins officials have touted Moran’s changeup as being elite since he was in the low minors, and big-league hitters have confirmed that by batting just .101 off the pitch while whiffing on 49.7 percent of swings. It’s particularly effective in neutralizing right-handed hitters, making Moran a unique reverse-split card to play. Righties have hit just .175 overall against him in the majors so far.

Moran has also worked to add velocity to his fastball, which is now an effective “second” pitch that averaged 93.4 mph last year. His changeup-fastball combo, along with an occasional slider versus lefties, is more than enough to thrive in a high-leverage role, but for Moran to be a consistently excellent reliever he needs to consistently throw more strikes.

Last season’s walk rate of 4.0 per nine innings with the Twins was actually a big improvement compared to his Double-A and Triple-A walk rate of 4.9 per nine innings, and the good news is that a similar improvement in 2023 could unlock Moran’s full potential. He deserves an opportunity to grab hold of a permanent bullpen spot and he has a chance to be one of the Twins’ best relievers.

 (Photo of Griffin Jax: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)

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Aaron Gleeman

Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman