Women’s NCAA Tournament first-round picks: UConn-Vermont, Duke-Iona and more

Filling out the women’s NCAA Tournament bracket is fun, sure. But with betting lines included, the stakes are raised and it’s a whole other ballgame — even if you’re sure of the winner, you can still pick against the spread. Last year, I had a hard time finding lines for the women’s tournament. This year, the information was much more available. I took all info into account — stats, schedules, personnel matchups, strengths and weaknesses — as I began the arduous task of analyzing each pick and selecting game winners. (And I reminded myself, more than once, not to overthink it.)

If you’re unfamiliar with betting numbers, the general idea is you subtract whatever the number is from the score, and that should make it even. So “Indiana -27.5″ means the Hoosiers should win by 28 against Tennessee Tech. The .5 allows you to pick a side, so there are no ties. In short, the team with the “-” number next to it is giving the other team that much of a lead in this figurative world. If “PK” is listed, it means the teams are rated even strength and it’s a straight win or loss pick.

My picks for Saturday’s first-round games are based against the spread, not straight-up winners. Check back, as I’ll have subsequent picks for every round of the tournament.

No. 16 Tennessee Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana (-27.5), 11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN2

Drawing Indiana is rough. The Hoosiers have lost only three games, all to Big Ten opponents. Calling Indiana battle-tested is an understatement. A solid team inside and out and on both ends of the floor, the Hoosiers earned every bit of their first No.1 seed in program history. Senior Mackenzie Holmes is having a career season, averaging 23.3 points on 69 percent shooting. Add in fifth-year senior Grace Berger (12.5 ppg) with her toughness and tournament pedigree, and Indiana is primed for a Final Four run. The pick: Indiana

No. 13 Saint Louis vs. No. 4 Tennessee (-23.5), 1 p.m. ET, ABC

It’s been a storybook season for Saint Louis, which stole the Atlantic 10 tournament title out from under UMass’ nose. But that’s where this fairytale ends. The Billikens are a .500 team that’s outsized and outmatched against a talented and motivated Tennessee team. The Lady Vols played the nation’s strongest schedule, and despite 11 losses, they’ve kept swinging. Now, they’re heading into the tournament with relatively light expectations for Knoxville’s standards. Rickea Jackson (19.6 ppg) and Jordan Horston (15.5) announced they’re returning next season. But they’re not giving up on this year. The pick: Tennessee

No. 14 James Madison vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-18.5), 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

James Madison has been to the NCAA Tournament before, losing in 2016 to DePaul in the first round. It’s an even tougher draw this year. Midseason, the Buckeyes looked like a Final Four team. With six players averaging double figures, Ohio State’s offense looked unstoppable as it stacked up 19 consecutive wins — even without senior guard Jacy Sheldon. Then came the Big Ten gauntlet of Iowa, Indiana and Maryland, and the Buckeyes fell into a shooting slump, failed to force turnovers and played poor transition defense. Wins against Michigan and Indiana in the Big Ten tournament helped the Buckeyes get back on track. Even though they lost big to Iowa in the title game, there’s still an opportunity to return to their midseason form. The pick: Ohio State

No. 9 Miami vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State (-2.5), 2 p.m. ET, ESPN

Ah, another coin-flip game. These teams have similar records and strengths of schedule. Both have middling stats, but Oklahoma State is more offensively efficient, particularly from 3 (36.6 percent). Though the Hurricanes have the better defense, the Cowgirls boast a steady six-player rotation in which everyone averages at least nine points per game. Miami might have a hard time keeping Oklahoma in check, but the Cowgirls can hit shots and protect the defensive glass to get the win. The pick: Oklahoma State

No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 5 Washington State (-1.5), 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU

When talking about Cinderella teams, FGCU always comes up. The Eagles are a 3-point-wielding squad, leading the nation in long-range shots — attempted and made. With 45 percent of their total points coming from 3, FGCU doesn’t focus much on the paint or get many free throws. The Eagles shoot a lot but effectively (57.6 percent), and that’s what makes them so tough to beat. Washington State is a hustle team with heart; the Cougs play solid defense in the paint and have a balanced offense. They endured a more challenging conference season and had their own Cinderella run in the Pac-12 tournament on the way to their first championship title. So, whose clock is about to strike midnight? The pick: Washington State

The team is obsessed with Shania Twain and karoake. Twenty minutes before tip during Pac-12 play, Ula Motuga would walk into the locker room and scream the iconic first line: "Let's go girls." The entire team would then sing the first verse and chorus.https://t.co/lzFvhWNxId

— Chantel Jennings (@ChantelJennings) March 6, 2023

No. 15 Vermont vs. No. 2 UConn (-34), 3 p.m. ET, ABC

The Huskies have had one of the most tumultuous seasons in the history of the sport — several injuries, a short bench and historic back-to-back losses — but they’ve remained resilient and are a Final Four contender. With Azzi Fudd (15.5) earning increasing minutes after returning from injury and Aaliyah Edwards (16.6) balling in the frontcourt, UConn is entering the tournament on its highest note of the season. Vermont has to contend with not only the Huskies’ recent resurgence but also their multiple scorers, tournament experience and reputation for dominance in March. The pick: UConn

No. 12 Toledo vs. No. 5 Iowa State (-10.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Toledo hasn’t lost a game since January against Bowling Green, then avenged that defeat by beating the Falcons for the MAC tournament title and automatic tournament bid. Having won 16 straight games, the Rockets are flying high (pun intended) into their game against Iowa State. The Cyclones are also trending upward after winning the Big 12 tournament for the first time. Though Toledo has a playmaker in senior guard Quinesha Lockett (17.7 ppg), expect Ashley Joens (21.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg) to fuel the Cyclones. Can the Rockets play efficiently enough to get the win? Or will Iowa State continue to roll? The pick: Iowa State

No. 11 St. John’s vs. No. 6 North Carolina (-5), 4 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Tar Heels are a puzzle. They play solid defense and do enough offensively to win, but it never feels like they completely dominate. North Carolina went 2-5 against the ACC’s top five teams (Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Duke, Florida State and Louisville). But familiarity between conference teams is always a factor. In the NCAA Tournament, new matchups offer a clean slate. The pick: North Carolina

No. 13 Cleveland State vs. No. 4 Villanova (-11.5), 5 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Cleveland State might be the lower seed, but it could give Villanova a tougher first-round matchup than the Wildcats anticipate. At 30-4, the Vikings like to get the ball inside and score near the rim. They lead the country in free-throw trips, attempts and makes, averaging almost as many points from the foul line (22.9 percent) as they do from 3 (25.5 percent). Villanova is a high-volume shooting team, getting most of its buckets from jumpers behind the nation’s leading scorer, Maddy Siegrist (28.9 ppg). The Wildcats also take care of the rock, averaging just 10 turnovers per game, and rank seventh nationally with 5.5 blocks per game. There’s no doubt the Vikings are going to battle, especially in the paint. But the nod goes to the team with Siegrist. The pick: Villanova

GO DEEPER

Is SuperNova Maddy Siegrist able to get Villanova to first Sweet 16 in 20 years?

No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 7 Baylor (-2.5), 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Alabama and Baylor are pretty even, but the Crimson Tide’s 3-point shooting (38 percent) sets them apart. They hit from long range consistently; almost 40 percent of their points come from the perimeter. Baylor has been a familiar fixture in the tournament for years — often as a top seed — but this season’s Bears aren’t as dominant. Darianna Littlepage-Buggs is one of the nation’s top freshmen, and point guard Ja’Mee Asberry has been a bright spot. Alabama won’t hold back from launching 3s and can also take advantage of Baylor’s lack of frontcourt size. The pick: Alabama

No. 11 Middle Tennessee (-1.5) vs. No. 6 Colorado, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNews

If Middle Tennessee makes a tournament run, it will be dubbed a Cinderella. But the Blue Raiders aren’t the underdog in Vegas — for good reason. With four players averaging double digits, they can score inside and out and get to the free-throw line. Colorado is seasoned and earned its stripes in the Pac-12 with an effective defense. But forcing turnovers against Middle Tennessee is a lot easier said than done. The Blue Raiders protect the ball, owning a 15.3 percent turnover rate. Though the Buffaloes have impressive wins over conference foes Utah and Oregon State and took Stanford to double overtime in an eventual loss, Middle Tennessee has the advantage of unfamiliarity. The pick: Middle Tennessee

No. 12 Drake vs. No. 5 Louisville (-4.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

More upset potential at the 12-5. Louisville and its defense aren’t the same as last year’s Final Four squad. The Cardinals required the bulk of the season to mesh. Even with Hailey Van Lith’s production (19.2 ppg), she can’t carry the Cardinals alone. Drake’s offense is quick and slick, with various players getting their hands on the ball and putting up points. Nebraska and South Dakota found out Drake’s a challenge this season, and the Bulldogs went toe-to-toe with Iowa, losing by six in overtime. Louisville has its own set of big wins against Texas and North Carolina. But if the Cardinals are going to make a run, they have to play heads-up defense. Expect a close one. The pick: Drake

No. 12 Portland vs. No. 5 Oklahoma (-9.5), 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU

Portland’s matchup against Oklahoma is a decent draw. The offensive-minded Sooners average 84.5 points (second in the nation) and 21 assists. With four players averaging double digits, it’s hard to slow them. Still, the Pilots have the potential to frustrate Oklahoma by pressing and disrupting its offensive rhythm — and the Sooners have struggled against pressure this season. Can junior forward Alex Fowler, Portland’s all-time points leader, guide the Pilots to an upset? Oklahoma’s offense might have something to say about that. The pick: Oklahoma

No. 14 Iona vs. No. 3 Duke (-23), 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Iona’s last visit to the tournament in 2016 ended with a first-round loss to Maryland. Seven years later, the Gaels are back. They shoot particularly well from 3 (40.1 percent). With steals, blocks, defensive boards and frenetic on-ball guarding, the Blue Devils hold opponents to 50.8 points per game (first overall). Their Achilles’ heel has been the lack of reliable scorers, especially in close games. If the Gaels can keep the game close, they just might be able to eke out a win. But that’s a big if. The pick: Duke

No. 13 East Carolina vs. No. 4 Texas (-20.5), 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 championship wasn’t ideal, but it could be the best thing for Texas. The Longhorns have responded well to adversity, overcoming injuries and a slow start. Defensively, they’re one of the nation’s best. East Carolina’s defense isn’t too shabby, either. The Pirates boast a 15.4 percent steal rate, averaging 13 per game. They’re scrappy, which might give the Longhorns fits. Texas struggled through shooting droughts, especially late in games. Still, Texas sophomore Rori Harmon is an exceptional and determined point guard. If East Carolina keeps it close, it’ll have a shot at an upset. Texas just needs to hit shots and find a rhythm for an easy win. The pick: Texas

No. 13 Sacramento State vs. No. 4 UCLA (-14.5), 11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN 2

Statistically, side by side, this matchup looks a lot closer than the seedings indicate. Sacramento State has a robust offense that shoots the ball extremely well (55.4 effective field goal percentage) from everywhere on the court. Nearly 40 percent of the Hornets’ total points come from 3. UCLA relies more on 2-pointers, behind a talented backcourt tandem featuring senior Charisma Osborne (15.5 ppg) and freshman Kiki Rice (11.7). The Bruins also crash the offensive glass, getting second-chance points at a high rate. Strength of schedule and game play have to be factored into the equation. The Bruins played 18 teams ranked in the top 50 RPI and beat 10. The Hornets played none. The Bruins will win, but by how much? The pick: Sacramento State

Friday’s first-round record

Picking Princeton, a 4.5-point underdog against NC State, proved wise. So did gambling on Iowa to cover a -29.5 point spread, which the Hawkeyes did with ease in a 52-point victory against Southeastern Louisiana. But some of the massive spreads were tricky: South Carolina was a -47.5 point favorite but won by “only” 32 points; LSU, a 32.5-point favorite, won by “only” 23.

Lyndsey’s Day 1 record: 10-6

(Photo of Shayeann Day-Wilson: Lance King / Getty Images)