Not since Caesar have the Ides of March been so cruel.
With Thursday confirming Wednesday’s worst fears regarding Edwin Díaz’s knee injury, the Mets have to move to Plan B for their bullpen. Díaz is essentially irreplaceable; no one in the sport is liable to post the kind of ridiculous numbers he did last season while closing games for the Mets. But New York has options to fill the void left by Díaz’s injury. Which is the best one?
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The case for David Robertson
2022: 63 2/3 IP, 2.40 ERA, 30.7 percent strikeout rate, 13.3 percent walk rate
For the Mets, the most appealing stat of David Robertson’s 2022 season was the .550 OPS posted against him by left-handed hitters. Robertson is a platoon-neutral — or even reverse-split — right-hander, meaning you don’t have to worry too much about late-game matchups with him. He can handle Ronald Acuña Jr. and he can handle Matt Olson (you know, theoretically).
Robertson also has compiled more than 150 career saves, including more than 50 of them in New York during his stints with the Yankees. No one else on this roster is as accustomed to the intangibles of the ninth inning the way Robertson is.
The main con to using Robertson as the closer is his elevated walk rate, which really spiked (to 16.2 percent) after the deadline deal to Philadelphia. He’s battled through double-digit walk rates at earlier points in his career but never to that extent. In the past five years, only Aroldis Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Tanner Scott have recorded 20 or more saves with a walk rate as high as Robertson’s was in 2022.
The case for Adam Ottavino
2022: 65 2/3 IP, 2.06 ERA, 30.6 percent strikeout rate, 6.2 percent walk rate
Adam Ottavino is the best reliever on the Mets’ roster. Out of all the in-house options, Ottavino was the best of them last season, and he’s the best of them over pretty much any sample of the past several years. He gets guys out, and on those nights last year when Díaz was not closing out the ninth inning, Ottavino filled in just fine. The right-hander was 3-for-3 in traditional save opportunities, and he had a more dominant overall year than Robertson.
The knock against Ottavino has always been his platoon splits; even last year, lefties posted an .838 OPS against him. He’s managed to limit that damage in the most important moments as he’s gotten older; in high-leverage spots over the past five years, that OPS dips to .706. If you’re really concerned about a lefty in the ninth inning, fine, turn to Robertson or Brooks Raley. But on more nights than not, Ottavino is the best option.
The case for a committee
It’s been a long time since Theo Epstein’s Red Sox closer by committee combusted on Opening Day, justifying the long-held belief that a good team needs a primary closer. Last year, the Rays had five different relievers earn at least five saves. The pennant-winning Phillies had four relievers with at least five saves during the season; then, in the postseason, Philadelphia registered five saves by five different pitchers.
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With Robertson, Ottavino and left-hander Raley, the Mets have three successful pitchers who achieve their success against different types of hitters. Ottavino is the most dominant against right-handed hitters, Raley the best against left-handed hitters, and Robertson the best against a mix. It could be as simple as picking the right one to face the three hitters due up in the ninth.
And even if manager Buck Showalter does lean on one reliever as his primary closer, he could still use that pitcher earlier in the evening, the way he occasionally did with Díaz in 2022. If Ottavino’s his closer but Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are due up in the eighth, that’s the best frame to use him, with Robertson or Raley ready to go behind him.
The case for patience
This is not mutually exclusive from the options listed above. When you lose a player as critical to your blueprint as Díaz, when you play in a division that came down to a tiebreaker a season ago, it’s awfully tempting to take drastic action in the here and now. The main problem for the Mets is there aren’t a lot of outlets for such drastic action. Does signing Zack Britton or Ken Giles off a mid-March showcase count? Who can they overpay for in a trade?
No, the Mets would be well served to remember that the easiest part of your roster to remake in-season is the bullpen. It’s the most volatile part of any club’s roster, and it’s the one with the most options come July. Just in the National League East, the Mets could look at the way the 2022 Phillies changed closers throughout the season, the way Atlanta in 2019 overhauled its bullpen in July, the way the 2019 Nationals found Daniel Hudson on the midseason trade market. Exercising patience allows the Mets to see not just how Robertson or Ottavino or some combination of relievers handles the role, but it also gives them time to curate all the other relievers they thought capable of playing important roles for them this season and target the right magnitude of midseason improvement. (The 2013 Red Sox rode Closer No. 4, a dominant Koji Uehara, to a World Series win.)
Maybe Díaz’s absence is pressing enough to justify a big swing for his younger brother, Alexis, from the Reds or David Bednar from the Pirates. Maybe it’s making smaller moves to fortify the set-up bridge. In either case, New York will have a better sense of which relievers can best accomplish those goals in the summer.
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Might that approach cost them the division? Yes. The margins in the NL East are that thin. But it might set them up best for an all-hands-on-deck October, which is what really matters.
The case for panic
And then, there’s the other side of things, which The Athletic’s Andy McCullough has graciously decided to argue:
Thus far, Tim has presented a variety of reasonable solutions for the Mets. Bully for him. My counterpoint would be this: There is no way to replace Edwin Díaz. You just cannot find an easy fix when you lose a player capable of putting together a season like Díaz did in 2022, when he struck out more than half the batters he faced and led all relievers in FanGraphs’ version of WAR.
This would have been true back in November, if Díaz had opted to sign elsewhere in free agency. It is especially true now, with the season only two weeks away. The Mets will go on without Díaz, but their ceiling has to be lowered.
Heading into 2023, general manager Billy Eppler implored owner Steve Cohen to finance a bullpen with five elite options. Eppler identified that quintet as Díaz, Ottavino, Robertson, Raley and Drew Smith. Díaz is already out. Raley is dealing with a hamstring issue. Smith posted a 4.17 ERA after last April. A couple of lesser arms, Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca, are also banged up. There was a time, before Díaz collapsed, when the bullpen could be considered one of this team’s strengths. That feels less realistic now. So does a full-throttle run at the Braves, who loom at the favorites to win the NL East once again.
Of course it is possible that the Mets can solve this dilemma, either through internal improvement or external alterations. But something is lost that cannot be regenerated. It is not just Díaz’s performance. There was his presence inside the clubhouse, the electricity fostered at Citi Field when “Narco” blared across the sound system, the clarity he offered Showalter. For so much of last season, Showalter could manage toward a singular goal: Get the ball to Díaz in the ninth with a lead. That is no longer possible. So while the Mets will find someone to pitch the ninth — perhaps someone quite good — that person will not be Díaz. And that cannot be understated.
(Top photo of David Robertson: Reinhold Matay / USA Today)