Islanders are winning games, but is Bo Horvat’s scoring drought a concern?

Mar 18, 2023; San Jose, California, USA;  San Jose Sharks center Nico Sturm (7) and New York Islanders center Bo Horvat (14) reaches for the puck during the third period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
By Kevin Kurz
Mar 19, 2023

SAN JOSE, Calif. — The Islanders wrapped up a brief and reasonably successful California trip on Saturday with a convincing 4-1 win over the Sharks, which followed a split of games in Los Angeles and Anaheim earlier in the week. They are 8-3-1 in their last 12 games and leapfrogged Pittsburgh in the standings to at least temporarily claim the first wild-card spot while remaining three points ahead of the hard-charging Florida Panthers.

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So that’s all pretty good stuff.

What may be the most surprising part of their mostly positive results of late, though, and is perhaps even a little concerning, is that they’re doing it without much of a scoring impact from newcomer and now top-line center Bo Horvat. Saturday marked the 11th time in the last 12 games that Horvat hasn’t scored a goal, and he has just one point, an assist, in his last eight games overall. He has nine points (5 goals, 4 assists) in 19 games overall since he was acquired from Vancouver.

Upon returning to the bench he forcefully closed the door, perhaps showing a bit of frustration. It prompted a quick pat on the shoulder from captain and linemate Anders Lee.

“We’ve been talking,” Lee said. “I think we’re making a difference every night. It’s just maybe not (showing) right now on the scoresheet.”

Coach Lane Lambert offered a broad view of what he has seen from Horvat lately.

“Obviously he’s not scoring right now, but he’s had plenty of chances,” Lambert said. “With the minutes he’s logged I think he’s done a great job of coming in and sort of taking us to another level.”

Some of the underlying numbers do support the argument offered by both Horvat and Lambert that the centerman should probably have been rewarded more than he has been over the past few weeks.

In the 12 games since Mathew Barzal’s injury in Boston on Feb. 18, Horvat has 35 shots on goal, leading the team over that span. According to Natural Stat Trick, he had 4.01 expected goals in all situations in his previous 11 games before Saturday, obviously more than just the two that he’s gotten. (He posted a goal and an assist in the Islanders’ win in Pittsburgh on Feb. 20, their first game after Barzal was hurt.)

On Saturday, Horvat had arguably his most impactful game offensively since Barzal’s injury. He finished with a team-high five shots on goal, including a handful of prime scoring chances. One of them came midway through regulation with the Islanders ahead 3-1, when Horvat took a feed from Simon Holmstrom and unleashed a dangerous wrist shot from the circle that was stopped by goalie Kaapo Kahkonen.

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Upon returning to the bench he forcefully closed the door, perhaps showing a bit of frustration. It prompted a quick pat on the shoulder from captain and linemate Anders Lee.

“We’ve been talking,” Lee said. “It’s one of those stretches where we like how we’re playing, it’s just not going. … I think we’re making a difference every night. It’s just maybe not (showing) right now on the scoresheet.”

The Islanders’ power-play futility has also affected Horvat’s output. Their 10.7 success rate in that 11-game span after Barzal’s injury and before Saturday was the worst mark in the league. They managed a power-play goal on Saturday from second-unit quarterback Ryan Pulock.

It’s safe to say that Barzal’s sudden departure threw a bit of a curveball at Horvat, who seemed to have instant chemistry with the talented playmaker. Horvat posted a three-game goal streak in his second, third and fourth games for the Islanders, with Barzal by his side.

“Definitely, I mean, when you’re starting to feel it with guys and starting to gain chemistry and all of a sudden he gets hurt like that, it does throw a wrench into things a bit,” said Horvat, who credited other teammates for “pulling their weight and stepping up in big ways, whether it’s scoring goals or killing penalties.”

Horvat has found a way to contribute in other ways, though, as Lambert has said several times in recent days.

Looking again at that 11-game window from Feb. 20 through Thursday night’s 6-3 win in Anaheim, Horvat’s ridiculous 64.7 faceoff percentage was the top mark in the league. Further, his ice time ticked up to 21:36 per game, second on the team only to defenseman Adam Pelech. He’s proved to be a valuable penalty killer, too — in 17:44 short-handed ice time over the last 12 games, Horvat hasn’t been out there for a single opponent power-play goal.

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“It’s easy for him. He’s a smart player,” said Jean-Gabriel Pageau, an adept penalty killer in his own right. “We all know how good he is with the puck, but without the puck, he’s a very smart player. I think (he just had to) get to know the system and after that it’s fit right into his game. He’s strong on faceoffs, he’s committed to block shots and be in lanes. He’s been amazing since he’s come in.”

To the Islanders’ credit, other players produced plenty of offense in their last two wins, in particular. The second line of Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall posted a combined eight points in the win over the Ducks, and Palmieri scored another one again on Saturday at 2:18 of the second period for what turned out to be the game winner. That followed Pageau’s short-handed marker late in the first period that tied the game after Kevin Labanc had given the Sharks an early lead.

It’s also the time of year when no one is going to focus too much on individual stats, particularly on a team that needs points in the standings any way it can get them.

“It’s one of those stretches where we like how we’re playing, it’s just not going,” Lee said. “But we didn’t need them tonight. So let’s just keep doing what we’re doing, and they’ll start falling.”

And, if the Islanders can get into the playoffs, there’s reason to believe Horvat will come alive. In his only playoff appearance in the last seven years, he managed 10 goals in just 17 games in the 2020 bubble for Vancouver, helping them to the second round where they fell in seven hard-fought games to Vegas.

“I love the playoffs. I think that’s when I play my best hockey,” Horvat said. “It brings out the best in myself I think, and (it would) be nice to get back there.”

In the meantime, he’s still confident he’ll have more of an impact offensively over the final stretch.

“It’s just a matter of time before it goes in. Like I said, I’d be worried if I wasn’t getting the chances, but I eventually think they’re going to start going in again.”

(Photo of Bo Horvat reaching for the puck against the Sharks: Stan Szeto / USA Today)

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Kevin Kurz

Kevin Kurz is a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in Philadelphia. He previously covered the New York Islanders and the San Jose Sharks for 10+ years and worked in the Philadelphia Flyers organization. Follow Kevin on Twitter @KKurzNHL