With just 10 games left in the Houston Rockets’ 2022-23 season, most if not all of their attention should be geared toward ending the campaign with good habits and building momentum to carry them into the offseason and beyond.
At 18-54 and firmly huddled with the San Antonio Spurs (19-52) and Detroit Pistons (16-56) as the league’s worst three teams, the race for Victor Wembanyama is in full swing, with all three teams essentially locked into the joint-best odds at winning the upcoming draft lottery and emerging from a difficult period with the hope of something better on the horizon.
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To look back on the year, examine key Rockets concepts and gaze into the crystal ball of incoming talent and the summer, The Athletic’s NBA and draft analyst Sam Vecenie joins me for an all-encompassing discussion. Vecenie goes into detail about his evaluations of Houston’s core players, the freshman class of 2023 and more.
Prior to the All-Star break, Jabari Smith Jr. was in the midst of a rough rookie season. Over the last handful of games, he’s looked closer to the prospect you evaluated for months — a lengthy, confident two-way big with staying power in this league.
Has his recent resurgence given you renewed hope of his future career arc? Or were some of his early-season struggles overblown and a byproduct of Houston’s season?
Vecenie: No, Smith’s struggles throughout the first two-thirds of the season were real and they were his own. He seemed to lose confidence in his jumper. This was an elite shooter at lower levels and at Auburn last year who went through a 33-game stretch from Dec. 15 to March 1 where he made 21.4 percent of his 3s, many of which were wide-open shots. We can play the blame game as much as we want, between coach Stephen Silas not drawing up plays for him and the guards for not always getting him the ball. But Smith — a prospect who is currently beholden to his ability to shoot jumpers — wasn’t taking the opportunities given to do what he’s best at. That’s on him. We can make excuses, and Smith did some positive things while he was working through his offensive struggles on the defensive end of the court. But there does need to be some accountability too, teenager playing his first NBA season or not.
I’m still confident Smith is going to turn out fine. He’s one of the youngest players in the NBA and should be able to adjust things further this offseason to work on his game. The ballhandling concerns that were there pre-draft still exist, and are why he’s more likely to be a third option offensively as opposed to a top option. He needs to improve his comfort level there so he’s not as reliant on others to get shots for him. But when you mix that with what should be terrific floor-spacing and shooting from deep, along with what will be switchable on-ball defense and terrific help defense when he’s in his early-to-mid-20s, that’s probably a top-50 player leaguewide. I’d still feel like that projection was reasonable if I was Houston, even with his poor play to start his career.
Where has Jalen Green improved in his second season and what more does he need to do to give you full confidence in his “franchise-building block” potential heading into Year 3?
More than anything, it depends on what you mean by “franchise-building block.” I’ve never seen Green as a guy likely to be the best player on a title team or anything. But he’s for sure a player who is worth investing in and that has every physical tool to become an All-Star. He is explosive, powerful and has real touch. He has some feel for how to use those tools to create his own shot. If Green wants to be an All-Star, it’s at his fingertips. The ability to create shots as fluidly as he does having just turned 21 is a talent that comes almost entirely out of his incredible gifts of body control and quick-twitch athleticism.
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But in general, Green didn’t show a ton in the way of growth for the majority of the season. I think “regressed” would be an unfair word in total, but through the first 60 games, I didn’t feel like he had improved in important ways — particularly from a skill and feel perspective on both ends of the court. More than Smith, I do feel like Green probably got caught up in the mess of a season that was happening around him. A lot of his issues would have been helped by having a real point guard out there, and through more accountability being enforced by the coaching staff. That might seem unfair to the coaches, but Green’s defensive effort this season up until recently was just dreadful in a way to which I can only point to accountability.
Green’s defense was a genuine problem for Houston during those first 60 games. It hung guys like Alperen Şengün out to dry in ball-screen coverages as Green would consistently die on screens and give little effort in recovery. It left his teammates consistently carrying the bag when he didn’t make helpside rotations. He was a ball-watcher on defensive rebounding opportunities. His instincts off the ball were poor, as he didn’t seem to recognize or anticipate sets his opposition was running. The word effort is the critical one. Green’s effort was not good enough on defense over the full season. He showed moments where he was willing to lock in and defend one-on-one. But by and large, his attention to detail and intensity on that end have been, frankly, beneath someone who possesses the gifts Green does and should ostensibly be a leader of this organization if the Rockets are going to consider him a building block. There were full games where he’d basically look like he was just going through the motions on that end of the court, like this game against the Sacramento Kings from January that a Twitter user helpfully clipped together.
Jalen Green is arguably the worst defender of any starter in the NBA now. As long as his effort is this awful, the Rockets have no hope of being competitive. Fake helping and not guarding anyone, not boxing out and giving up OREBS, not engaged 1v1. Here are clips from Sacramento pic.twitter.com/5NpJQAPJeD
— Nathan Fogg (@NathanFogg1) January 15, 2023
Now, I will give Green credit for this: over the last few weeks, his defensive effort has been better. He’s had games where he’s looked much more engaged and energetic, willing to fight through screens and willing to close out hard, but under control onto shooters in scramble situations. His help rotations have also been a bit more on-point. You can’t overvalue this, given that the Rockets are 18-54. But these games are important for rebuilding teams. The Rockets’ core group of young players should be using these final three weeks to institute good habits.
It seems strange to harp on Green’s defense when offense drives a lot of value, but the reason for that is twofold. First, for Green to be a franchise-building block in the way Houston wants him to be, he needs to hold himself and his teammates to a higher standard. He’s on the ground floor of this rebuild. For the Rockets to come out of it, they need leaders to step up. He needs to be one. Second, offensively, I thought it was a lot of the same for Green this season. His counting numbers are better, the efficiency is worse. But in general, Green was an inefficient gunner this season whose true shooting percentage is currently about eight percent below league-average when scoring is, by far, the most important part of his arsenal.
There are places where he improved. He was more willing to drive into contact and use his body around the rim. You can see that in his much improved free-throw rate. But also some of his sequencing in terms of footwork and attack plan could use some work if he’s to become a better finisher at the basket. In total, Green made just 50.7 percent of his shots at the rim. Among the 172 players in the NBA to take at least 150 shots at the rim this season, he finished 168th. That’s bad, and it largely had to do with his half-court finishing where, per Synergy, he made 45.3 percent.
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To me, a large part of efficiency largely comes down to shot selection, and Green is also still working through some of his reads in half-court settings as a passer. He’s still 20 years old, and this absolutely comes with more experience, but he has a lot of wild attempts at the rim where a player on his team was standing wide open waiting for an easy kickout. Here’s a great example from the team’s recent game against the New Orleans Pelicans. This is an extremely easy, same-side kickout to Kevin Porter Jr. that needs to be made. Instead, he drives into a waiting Jonas Valančiūnas with 6-foot-10 Trey Murphy III sitting on his hip still, which makes it extremely easy for Valančiūnas to read the way he’s going to go up for the shot. It gets swatted and the break starts the other way.
This also displays a maddening habit of Green’s, where he overdribbles. Again, to me, this is a coaching thing that I would assume a different coach would try to simplify for him, especially if the Rockets are able to get a point guard this summer who makes things easier on everyone from a distribution perspective. But Green needs to be much more decisive and attack better in straight lines as opposed to dancing out beyond the 3-point line.
All of this is why I would say Green stagnated more than he improved this season. Again, it has been nice to see him average 25 points over his last eight games as the Rockets have gone 4-4 in that stretch. But I don’t think I can call this season a success for Green because even though the last eight have been great, the first 60 or so were a real issue. Again, I can’t emphasize this enough: a coaching change and the acquisition of a lead guard to take some of the load off of his shoulders would be enormously beneficial to him moving forward.
Şengün might be one of the most polarizing players not only on this Rockets roster, but in the league. You watched him extensively in Europe before making his way over to the NBA. At this point, it’s clear how he makes Houston’s offense considerably better, but he’s had a hard time staying on the floor when the Rockets opt to go small or revert to a switching defense (with Usman Garuba).
Over the last few games, his efforts have garnered the positive attention of the coaching staff. But did the Nikola Jokićs and the Domantas Sabonis’ of the world go through this early on in their careers? Could the draft and/or free agency impact Şengün’s long-term future in Houston, or is he a cemented building block?
Yeah, interesting question. Şengün is starting from a lower point than either of those two. Jokić is drastically bigger. His wingspan is enormous, he’s longer, and he covers a bit more space out there on the interior. Even when he was younger, he seemed to have better feel for the game defensively. Sabonis is definitely the better comparison physically, but where Sabonis is a touch better is in his understanding of how to use his verticality and strength at the rim to contest. He comes from a program at Gonzaga that teaches that skill much better than anyone else across the college basketball landscape. I also think, in general, his fundamentals have been a bit better in his understanding of exactly where he needs to be.
Şengün has a tendency to get lost in no-man’s-land in ball-screen coverages. I also don’t think he’s been all that impactful in any of the moments where the Rockets have tried to play more at the level of the screen this season, as his recovery speed hasn’t been good enough to get back into the play. It feels like a lot of the time when they did do that — which, without digging into the data, felt a bit more extensive last season — he’s trying to get his arms up and use his tremendous hand-eye coordination to get deflections. If that doesn’t happen, it’s tough. To me, Şengün is probably going to be best in that style of scheme, where the Rockets play flatter, at the level of the screen, so this is what he should focus on improving.
I will say though, that I am fascinated to see what Şengün looks like with better defenders around him if the Rockets do go about acquiring such players next season. Having guards and wings who are sounder defensively will help to insulate Şengün on that end. I know Silas at the end of February went on a bit of an extended answer explaining that he isn’t singling Şengün out on defense, but when I watch the Rockets, it kinda feels like he’s singling Şengün out on defense. I get why he’s doing it — center is the most important position defensively. But it’s also hard for me to watch, for instance, the previous Green clip, then see him play 39 minutes the next game he played after he returned from the suspension he received in the Kings game.
In terms of whether or not Şengün is a building block, I would absolutely continue along the road of exploring what he is. His offensive talent is immense, and worth continuing to invest in. Even if the team is so lucky as to grab Wembanyama in the 2023 NBA Draft, I would probably start next season with the idea in my head of a frontcourt of Smith-Şengün-Wembanyama to see if having a bigger, mobile rim-protector would help unlock Şengün a bit more. Getting Wembanyama would undeniably put Şengün’s place on the roster under shakier footing. And if I was the Rockets, I would prioritize finding some real rim protection in the offseason at least as a potential backup option. But Şengün has shown enough to where the team should not be looking to offload him within the next 10 months, at the very least.
Let’s say the Rockets don’t win the lottery but have the second or third pick under their belt. If you’re general manager Rafael Stone, are you drafting Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller and taking your swings in free agency — or do you look to trade the pick? How close are those two prospects in your evaluations? Alternatively, what if they don’t land a top-three pick? Would you shop it around the league? Or should players like Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, the Thompson twins and others get serious looks?
There are zero circumstances where I would trade a top-three pick in this class. Wembanyama, Henderson and Miller are players who would transform this roster in a substantial way, giving them yet another high-upside, potential All-Star.
In terms of how close they are, Wembanyama is a step ahead of Henderson and Miller. Henderson and Miller are closer, and teams are more mixed on what they would do if presented the option of taking either at No. 2. If I was the Rockets, I would select Henderson and be happy. Henderson is the point guard the team needs moving forward, but moreover, he’s the kind of competitor and no-holds-barred standards-raiser the roster could really use. Henderson is regarded as a hard worker, with a drive to be great. He’s a special prospect in terms of mentality. I also strongly believe in his mix of power and athleticism. His first step is superb and can beat anyone off the bounce. His power is real, mixed with terrific balance and body control. But more than that, his feel for the game is terrific. He’s an awesome passer and playmaker for others in a way that would stand out on this roster.
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If they don’t land a top-three pick, that’s when I’d look into shopping it a bit more. But frankly, I’d still probably end up using the pick and taking a real shot on a higher-upside player in that group. The Rockets have enough cap space this summer to where they can transform this roster without moving this pick. I’d look at guys who can change the defensive culture there, can bring shooting, and have a high feel for the game. They need connective tissue players who have had success across the league around their young guys. The good news is the team can find those players.
What’s your confidence level in the success of this rebuild, on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being extremely confident, and success means getting back to the postseason in the next three seasons?
If the barometer for success is only getting back to the playoffs within the next three years, then I’d say a seven or so. But I don’t think that should be the barometer for a rebuild that has resulted in a trio of truly disastrous seasons. The Rockets — in a big market city with several high draft picks in their system and several likely forthcoming from the trades they’ve made — should be aiming higher than that.
Overall, my feelings on the rebuild are probably at a four. They have talent here. I just don’t think it’s been utilized properly, and it feels like this season has been one that hasn’t included much growth overall. It’s disappointing.
This will change immediately to about a 9.5 if the team gets Wembanyama, because that is the kind of talent that makes everything fall into place. Henderson would make me feel like we’re at about an eight, Miller at about a 7.5. Anything below the top-three would have me back at about a four.
(Top photo of Jalen Green: Alex Bierens de Haan / Getty Images)