The last time I made preseason predictions, before the 2021 season, I went 6-for-10. The year before that, I went 4-for-5. Either I’m just very good at this and should start playing the lottery more often or my predictions haven’t been bold enough. Because I’m both humble and, as far as I know, not clairvoyant, I’ll go with the latter.
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So, this year, my 10 Blue Jays predictions are bigger and bolder than ever.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 50 home runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t have a bad season last year. It was actually really good — like 132 wRC+ good. But after his near-MVP 2021 season, the first baseman set the bar so high, a giraffe wearing a top hat could comfortably limbo underneath it. In that season, Guerrero flirted with 50 home runs, finishing with 48 to share the major-league lead with Salvador Perez. Guerrero finished with 32 home runs last year.
Projections for Guerrero’s home-run tally via FanGraphs range from 33 to 39. It’s fair to say a 40-home-run season is almost expected of him. But 50? That would set a career-high. Guerrero has vowed to be more patient at the plate and if he isn’t swinging at pitches outside the zone, pitchers will have to pitch to him.
2. Bo Bichette wins the American League batting title
No American League player has more hits than Bo Bichette’s 380 over the past two seasons. With Xander Bogaerts and reigning AL batting champ Luis Arraez now in the National League, two players who could challenge for the title are gone. Aaron Judge remains in the AL and he’s a perennial Triple Crown threat. Still, Bichette has always been able to hit for average. In fact, take out Bichette’s uncharacteristically uneven first half last year and he’s been a .300-plus hitter for his MLB career. If his spring is any indication, he’s honed in at the plate and he looks primed to do damage this season. If he can avoid any long slumps, he could be in line for the batting crown.
No 😤 Doubt 😤 Bo 😤 pic.twitter.com/iMF19JCowY
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 22, 2023
3. Yusei Kikuchi posts a sub-4.00 ERA
Not to brag but a couple of years ago, I predicted Robbie Ray would have a sub-4.00 ERA and he went on to win the Cy Young Award. I’m not suggesting Yusei Kikuchi will do that — actually, I’m predicting another Blue Jay will — but I do think the 31-year-old lefty will be a fine fifth starter. Spring can be viewed skeptically, but there’s no denying Kikuchi has had a strong performance in Grapefruit League play. He’ll enter his final spring outing with a 1.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts and 10 walks in 18 innings. He’s had good results on his pair of breaking balls as well as his changeup. The key, really, is whether Kikuchi can command his fastball when the meaningful games begin.
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4. Daulton Varsho hits at least 40 home runs
One of the reasons the Blue Jays traded for Daulton Varsho was because of the pop in his lefty bat. The Rogers Centre could prove to be home-run friendly for Varsho, especially with the outfield fence coming in as much as 16 feet in right-centre field. Varsho hit 27 homers with Arizona last year. This year, his home-run projection totals at FanGraphs range from 24 to 32 home runs. He’ll eclipse the upper end of that range.
5. Ricky Tiedemann debuts before the All-Star break
After Ricky Tiedemann touched 99 mph on the radar gun in a spring game, fans called for the 20-year-old to break camp with the big-league club. A sore shoulder slowed down his progression, but even without that, he was never destined for a spot on the Opening Day roster. The lefty is more likely to start in Double A and pitch his way up to Triple A. The Blue Jays aren’t keen to rush him, but if he’s mowing guys down in Buffalo, he should get his opportunity. A second-half debut seems possible, if not plausible, so the bold prediction is Tiedemann will pitch in the majors before the All-Star break.
6. Danny Jansen makes his first All-Star team
Alejandro Kirk broke out last year and rode his brilliant first half into his first All-Star selection. This year, it’s Danny Jansen’s turn. Injuries have interrupted Jansen’s past two seasons, but when he’s been in the lineup, he’s posted a .901 OPS in his last 311 plate appearances. He’s got easy 20-25 home run power even when not playing every day. The Blue Jays fan base is a massive voting block that can stuff a player’s ballot box if he’s worthy of selection. If Jansen stays off the injured list and gets off to a hot start, he’ll be heading to Seattle.
7. Kevin Gausman wins the AL Cy Young Award
Manager John Schneider summed up Kevin Gausman’s spring like this: “(He’s) throwing the s— out of it.” Indeed, the 32-year-old has looked sharp this spring with 18 strikeouts in 13 2/3 scoreless spring innings. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris — who is also predicting a Cy Young Award for Gausman — noted that his fastball has improved ride this spring and the shape of his slider looks good, as well.
Gausman ranked second among AL pitchers in fWAR last year (5.7) and by most statistics, he had either an elite, great or very good season. Some bad batted-ball luck inflated his ERA (3.35), and he’s probably due for regression there. Since the 2020 season, a Blue Jays pitcher has either won or been a finalist for the Cy Young Award. Gausman will keep that streak alive.
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8. John Schneider wins Manager of the Year
After he took over as interim manager in July, John Schneider led the Blue Jays to a 46-28 record, which is a .622 winning percentage. Over a 162-game season, that translates to a 100-plus win pace. The 43-year-old is entering his first full season managing the Blue Jays and he’s set a detail-oriented tone from the first day of camp in the hopes of taking the club from a great team to a championship-worthy one. If Schneider can lead the Blue Jays to an unexpected division title in a deep AL East, voters will reward him.
9. Blue Jays fans will eat 500,000 $1 hot dogs
Final Loonie Dogs night tally of the season. Record total, fifth-highest DPF. I spent the morning unclogging a drain and it now sure feels like a metaphor. pic.twitter.com/V2EAPHKMI6
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) September 28, 2022
Thanks to the dedicated data collection by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, we know last year fans consumed 444,854 hot dogs during the Loonie Dogs Nights at the Rogers Centre — or 1.18 dogs per fan (DPF). The popular promotion is back and with a renovated and more fan-friendly Rogers Centre sure to be one of the city’s top attractions this summer, the hot-dog-eating record is just asking to be broken. Eat now, regret later, Blue Jays fans! (Also, because I’m a responsible journalist, I vow to not eat a single hot dog at the ballpark so as to not sway these results.) (Also, I don’t eat meat.)
10. The Blue Jays will win the AL East
It’s probably going to be a two-team race for the top spot in the division with the Blue Jays and the Yankees vying for it. (Although, I should know better than to discount the Rays.) A couple of projection systems — namely, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA and FanGraphs — have the Yankees finishing first and the Blue Jays behind them. But the Blue Jays look like a more balanced team than the Yankees, who rely on a top-heavy roster with stars like Judge and Gerrit Cole largely propping up the team. If one — or both — of those guys falters, the Yankees could be in trouble. The Blue Jays look better positioned to build off performances from across their roster. With 95 wins, the Blue Jays will take the top spot.
(Top photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
