Wake Forest hasn’t been to Omaha since 1955, but the Demon Deacons are ranked in the top 10 across the board, and they’re likely to see two players go in the first round this year in right-hander Rhett Lowder and third baseman Brock Wilken. I caught both players in this past weekend’s series against Miami in Winston-Salem, where Wake Forest demolished a reasonably good Miami club, sweeping the series while allowing just two runs total in the three games.
Advertisement
Lowder’s calling card is his changeup, a power offering with great deception and tailing action at 86-89 that he will use in any count. He uses it to play off his 92-96 mph fastball, and showed a solid-average slider at 82-86 that he uses almost exclusively to right-handers, especially when he’s ahead and trying to get a swing and miss. He throws strikes, although it’s more control than command. It’s three average or better pitches with a plus pitch in the changeup and a fastball that plays up because hitters have to look for the change at the same time.
Read Keith Law’s latest MLB mock draft.
Lowder’s delivery, however, is a little rough. He comes from a 3/4 slot with some sling to his arm action. He begins on the extreme first-base side of the rubber, then lands too early, cutting himself off and forcing him to come back across his body slightly to get to his glove side. It’s a peculiar choice because the way he lands doesn’t confer any real benefit in deception — he’s already on the first base side, so landing where he does isn’t making it harder for right-handed hitters to see the ball, at least not enough to matter. He plants that front leg too soon, spinning off the front heel and putting more stress on his arm with the abrupt finish.
𝙋𝙞𝙩𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙚𝙠
Rhett Lowder @WakeBaseball
7 shutout IP w/ 9Ks vs a T25 offense. Lowder leads the nation’s best SP staff with a 5-0 record, 1.42 ERA, & 48:7 K:BB
Full College Player Report: https://t.co/dqerMkNr0Mpic.twitter.com/iZdMuN3e3X
— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) March 27, 2023
LSU’s Paul Skenes has clearly established himself as the No. 1 college starter in the draft, but Lowder is in the running to be the second one taken, along with Florida’s Hurston Waldrep and Tennessee’s Chase Dollander, the latter of whom hasn’t looked as good as he did last year. I do have those delivery concerns on Lowder, but I don’t think these are beyond remedy. If he can adjust to land slightly later in the delivery when his lead leg is online between the rubber and home plate, it would mitigate several of the concerns at once.
Advertisement
More observations on MLB Draft prospects:
• Wilken faced weak pitching during Wake’s non-conference schedule, putting more focus on what he does from here on out against mostly ACC pitching. He showed on Friday night that he could get to average velocity, including lining a 91 mph fastball up to right field for a single, so on Saturday he got a heavy dose of sliders and showed that he could at least get the bat to those pitches, eventually pulling one to left-center for a double in his third at bat. He starts very upright and takes a huge stride forward in the box, but keeps his hands and torso steady and quiet until he starts his swing, with both bat speed and control to cover the zone. I would be curious if a slightly shorter stride would help him, but he doesn’t seem to be having the kind of trouble with changing speeds I might expect and I’d probably just leave him be. He also played the hell out of third base in the two games I saw, with a 55 arm and several strong plays on hard-hit balls to his left and right.
• Wake lefty Sean Sullivan has a chance to go in the top three rounds off his performance and advanced pitch data, although his pure stuff isn’t as impressive as the results. Sullivan comes from a low 3/4 slot at 90-93 with a sweepy slider at 77-79 and an above-average changeup at 82-83, getting bad swings on the fastball because of the angle from which the ball comes at hitters. Unlike a lot of pitchers with this delivery, he has pretty clean mechanics, landing online and staying on time so there isn’t a ton of effort. He’s a bit like a discount version of Cooper Hjerpe, whom the Cardinals took in the first round last year. I had Hjerpe as a second-round talent due mostly to delivery concerns, but he also had better pure stuff than Sullivan, so on that basis alone I’d put Sullivan more in the third-round range right now.
• Wake also had a pair of relievers of note, both of whom should go in the top five rounds or so, each throwing one inning in their win on Saturday afternoon. Right-hander Seth Keener was 95-96 with a 55 changeup that he threw a ton — against one left-handed batter he threw nothing but changeups, four straight to get the strikeout and a 50/55 slider at 83-86 that he even used once to get a different lefty to roll over to second. Right-hander Camden Minacci is their closer and was 94-97 with a slider at 85-89, carving up three batters in his one inning of work. Keener’s got a rougher delivery, with a long arm action and abrupt finish, while Minacci is shorter in back and stays very online to the plate. He might be a candidate for someone to move to the rotation in pro ball if there’s a third pitch in there or the possibility of one. Keener is a pure reliever for me, however, between the delivery and the lack of life on the fastball.
• Miami third baseman Yohandy Morales, son of Cuban national team star Andy Morales, is their best player and a potential first rounder, although I have some concerns about swing and miss after seeing him against some quality arms this weekend. Morales absolutely looks the part of a future star, with a Manny Machado build and very easy actions at third base. He’s got great bat speed and showed power the other way, lining a 91 mph fastball out to right like he’d just flicked a bug off his wrist because it was annoying him. Wake attacked him often with fastballs up, and it was the one pitch he missed multiple times in those two games while also setting up several sliders down that he then hit on the ground. There’s some length to the swing, not enough to say he won’t make more contact but enough to note as a possible explanation for some of the whiffs. Just in the head-to-head comparison, he’s behind Wilken as a pure hitter, but offers some more upside for a team that believes it can improve a hitter’s swing decisions.
Advertisement
• Wake’s slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz isn’t eligible until 2024, but he’s a name to watch for the first two rounds next year with his combination of patience and power. I saw the patience, with four walks in the two games, but not the power, as he went homerless for just the second weekend this season and had only one hit in the three games.
• I also saw high school outfielder Walker Jenkins, who plays for South Brunswick in Wilmington, North Carolina, although the trip involved seeing him walk four times in five plate appearances, twice intentionally and twice-semi-intentionally, as the opposing coach, of Hoggard High School, decided he wanted to lose the game in the most embarrassing way possible. (Both intentional walks led to extra runs for South Brunswick.) Jenkins did get one hit in his one official at-bat, showing excellent bat speed before singling with two strikes; he was fooled by an offspeed pitch, meeting it well out in front of the plate, but is so strong that he hit a clean liner to right for the base hit. He played strong defense in center and ran the bases well, although he’s fringy out of the box and a better runner underway. I’m just hoping scouts get to see him face teams whose coaches show some better sportsmanship than the Hoggard coach did.
(Photo of Rhett Lowder: Nicholas Faulkner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
