Jim Irsay rode his golf cart onto the field during Colts training camp in August and looked at the sea of fans in the stands eager for a shot at redemption following a painful 2021 campaign. He then turned to lay his eyes on the quarterback tasked with bringing that to fruition.
“We’re set up for excellence. Now we just have to do it,” Irsay said at the time. “And Matt Ryan has that same feeling in his heart. … He’s here to get his Lombardi. This is the time.”
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The running joke in Indy is that no matter what the previous season has brought, the team’s owner is going to talk every offseason about Super Bowls, Lombardi Trophies, greatness and glory. Even after Ryan proved to be another failed experiment at QB, even after the Colts went 4-12-1 — including the largest blown lead in NFL history — and even after landing the No. 4 pick in the NFL Draft, which would be the team’s highest selection in over a decade, Irsay couldn’t help himself.
“I don’t change the way I feel,” he said at this year’s NFL owners’ meetings. “It’s about winning not just one but two Lombardis this decade.”
Irsay has been chasing that triumphant moment ever since Peyton Manning led the franchise to the mountaintop during the 2006 season, its only Super Bowl victory since the team moved to Indianapolis in 1984. But before you roll your eyes and point out that Manning is long gone and his talented successor, Andrew Luck, is in the rearview mirror, as well, Irsay has changed at least a bit.
Embedded in his bold statements about winning it all is the admission that the Colts — after years of convincing themselves otherwise — are no longer in win-now mode with presumably a rookie quarterback on the horizon.
“It’s really about no shortcuts,” Irsay continued. “I’ve said it before and I believe it. One of the key things, if not the most key thing, in franchise-building is patience. People don’t have patience, and you have to have patience.”
That’s a far cry from the Lombardi quest he envisioned in 2022 alongside Ryan, but now the question becomes: Are the Colts retooling or rebuilding?
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Irsay may be leaning toward the former, refusing to let a franchise known for being in “the upper quartile” completely bottom out, when he should take a long hard look at the latter. Trading Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys and cutting Ryan to clear cap space isn’t enough to constitute a full rebuild, and putting it off could just delay the inevitable.
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Sitting at No. 4 in the draft with two QB-needy teams — Carolina at No. 1 and Houston at No. 2 — ahead of the Colts likely means they’ll miss out on Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, the two most NFL-ready signal callers in this year’s class. The next two projected first-round QBs are Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis, who have a lot of upside but may need more time — perhaps even an entire season — before taking the reins.
This is where Irsay and general manager Chris Ballard find themselves in a bit of a conundrum. Assuming Indy doesn’t pursue Lamar Jackson, a former MVP who’s capable of immediately lifting the team into AFC South title contention, the patience it’s going to give a rookie quarterback doesn’t line up with the commitments it’s made at other positions.
Center Ryan Kelly, 29, still has two years and $27 million left on his contract. The Colts decided to retain him this offseason after a poor 2022 campaign, and even if he does bounce back in 2023, how long can he anchor the trenches?
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On defense, the same question can be asked about defensive tackles Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner, both also 29. Stewart is entering the final year of his contract, so Indianapolis could part ways next year, but Buckner still has two seasons and $40 million left on his deal. Should he be a possible trade candidate?
“I still see a talented team with plenty of young players, with strong years left,” Irsay said. “Some players (who are) potentially really legacy players, Hall of Fame potential. You look at the injury list, we want Jonathan Taylor back 100 percent … And with Shaq (Leonard), you guys know what he means. You’ve seen the stats with (Brian) Urlacher compared to him or Ray Lewis. We know the incredible football player (he is) and how he’s a game changer of maybe the rarest in the last few years.”
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Irsay is correct. A healthy Taylor and Leonard change the Colts’ trajectory, but not always in the big picture. Both made first-team All-Pro in 2021, yet at their positions, running back and linebacker, the impact didn’t result in a playoff bid. Needless to say, a first-team All-Pro QB almost guarantees a postseason berth with the potential for a deep run.
Taylor, 24, is eligible for an extension this offseason, and given Ballard’s commitment to homegrown talent, he’ll likely get it. Meanwhile, the 27-year-old Leonard, who’s undergone two back surgeries since his last healthy season in 2021, has four years and $83.2 million left on his extension. He’s determined to regain his dominant form, but what if he never becomes the player he once was?
Even if the Colts nail their QB pick, the likelihood of him immediately turning them into a perennial playoff team like Luck did is slim. So, whether it’s now or later, Indianapolis must consider leaning into a true rebuild, even if that means saying goodbye to Kelly, Buckner or Leonard (or perhaps all three) to recoup the cap space and draft capital necessary to build a team on the same timeline as the future signal caller.
“If you don’t feel like you have (a quarterback) that can absolutely change the franchise in terms of leading you every year, I think you’re always gonna feel some pressure to get that player,” Ballard said at the NFL owners’ meetings, adding that he’s keeping his options open. “Whether we need to take one at (No. 4), if the right one is there for us that we feel good about, then we’ll do it.”
Obviously, the Colts’ main focus this offseason is to find their franchise quarterback, but it doesn’t erase the elephant in the room: This team was constructed as if it were just a QB away from getting over the hump. With a new quarterback on the way and new coach Shane Steichen at the helm, that dream is over.
Irsay said he won’t judge the upcoming season solely on wins and losses. He just wants to see the franchise “going in the right direction.” Since there will likely be more losses than wins, it might behoove him and the franchise to also move in the right direction from a team-building standpoint, which may include painful decisions that would end the Colts’ recent mediocrity for a chance to truly chase after another Lombardi Trophy down the line.
(Top photo of Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner: Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
