Two years ago, my editor thought it would be interesting to run a story wondering if there was a path for the Rangers — coming off three seasons in which they’d finished an average of nearly 30 games back in the AL West and a fourth that would have been worse if the schedule wasn’t only 60 games long — to turn themselves in contenders by 2023.
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For some reason she asked me, between sips of my seven-eighths-full glass of rose-colored-something-or-other, to take on the task. Nothing if not a team player, I put the eye black on and sat down to write, but I wasn’t sure I could pull it off. Early on in the piece, I wrote: “It would be silly to suggest Texas will win the American League in 2023. But can they contend? … Can we piece the puzzle together to come up with a roster capable of a pennant race in two years?”
I went ahead and gave it a shot, though in hindsight I wonder if years of tempered expectations kept me from climbing out onto anything but the sturdiest limb. As it turns out, I was way off base – and not in the bullish direction that old Newberg Report readers might have expected. I wildly underestimated how aggressive the Rangers would be in remaking not only their roster but also the expectations that go along with it.
One of the things I noted to kick off that story was that the Rangers were not committed contractually to a single player for 2023. They had club options on José Leclerc (which they exercised after the 2022 season) and Rougned Odor (whom they traded to the Yankees a month later). Otherwise, the slate was clean — and since then, in virtually every facet, they outpaced what I figured they might do.
Starting pitching
Of course, nobody could have predicted what was to come in the rotation. The five Texas broke camp with in 2021 were Kyle Gibson, Mike Foltynewicz, Kohei Arihara, Dane Dunning and Jordan Lyles. I’d incorrectly speculated in the mid-camp story that Kyle Cody could beat Lyles out for a spot. Where I was closer was when I wrote, based on how lean the Rangers’ payroll obligations were and how lucrative ticket sales could be in their new ballpark, they “should be poised to spend significant money as soon as the next two winters.”
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That they most emphatically did. Their half-billion-dollar spending spree on middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien after the 2021 season was supplemented with free-agent deals for Jon Gray (four years, $56 million) and Martín Pérez (one year, $4 million). Gray was the Rangers’ Opening Day starter in 2022 — and Pérez was their best.
And yet they were assigned the third and fourth slots out of the gate in 2023, after Texas spent $185 million on Jacob deGrom (for five years) and another $34 million on Nathan Eovaldi (for two years) in December. Ordinarily, Dunning (who followed Gray in the season-opening rotation in 2022) might have held onto the fifth spot, but Texas gave Andrew Heaney a two-year, $25 million deal after retaining Pérez for one year and $19.65 million to round out the rotation.
Dusting off my crystal ball back in March 2021, I wondered if Texas could follow up on its productive three-year deals with Mike Minor (before 2018), Lance Lynn (before 2019) and Gibson (before 2020) and give a similar deal to one of Gray, Heaney, Marcus Stroman or Danny Duffy. Before I can take credit for envisioning deals for three pitchers the Rangers did eventually sign (Duffy is on a non-roster deal and is starting the year on the Triple-A injured list), let it be known that it’s the other one that I ultimately predicted the Rangers would land: I projected a 2023 rotation of Stroman, Arihara, Dunning, Cody and Cole Winn — and a July 2023 go-for-it trade for Tyler Glasnow following a May debut for Jack Leiter.
Yes, Jack Leiter. In the story, I dismissed the possibility that the Rangers might draft high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar four months later, suggesting “it seems more likely that the Rangers draft pitchers Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter out of Vanderbilt — and try to move in on (Trevor) Story.”
March 2021 Fiction: Marcus Stroman, Kohei Arihara, Dane Dunning, Kyle Cody and Cole Winn – with Jack Leiter and Tyler Glasnow joining mid-season
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April 2023 Fact: Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Martín Pérez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney
Infield
I imagined the Rangers targeting one of the big free-agent shortstops after 2021, ultimately heading into 2023 with an infield of Story, Josh Jung at third base, the freshly acquired Nathaniel (then “Nate”) Lowe at first base, and either Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak or Justin Foscue at second. Going for Seager was more financially aggressive than I expected Texas would be, but the real mind-blowing move (that my editor surely would have cut if I’d predicted it) was supplementing the $325 million given to Seager with another $175 million for Semien.
Not only did that one-two punch accelerate the Rangers’ rebuild with a pair of star players to plug into the essential up-the-middle void on the team — it also arguably made the Rangers more attractive, a year later, to deGrom and briefly retired manager Bruce Bochy.
March 2021 Fiction: Nate Lowe, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or Nick Solak or Justin Foscue), Trevor Story, Josh Jung
April 2023 Fact: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Josh Jung
Catchers
The middle-infield overhaul led Texas to trade Kiner-Falefa, after a Gold Glove season in 2020, to the Twins in a deal for catcher Mitch Garver. I’d envisioned the Rangers sticking with their 2021 trio of Jose Trevino, Jonah Heim and Sam Huff behind the plate into 2023, but Garver’s arrival led to a trade three weeks later that sent Trevino to the Yankees.
Neither I nor the Rangers felt the need to overhaul the catching situation. Arguably, they’d have been better off sticking with Trevino than trading for Garver, but Heim’s emergence on both sides of the ball has probably justified his increased role while Trevino has made himself more indispensable as well with the Yankees.
March 2021 Fiction: Jose Trevino, Jonah Heim, Sam Huff
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April 2023 Fact: Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver, Sam Huff
Bullpen
After a promising two-month run late in 2020, his first as a pro to pitch strictly in relief, I was bullish on Jonathan Hernández’s chances to become a mainstay in the bullpen: “Hernández’s wipeout stuff — and five years of club control — make the 24-year-old the best bet of any Rangers relief pitcher to be a factor on a contender in 2023.” I was right about him establishing a role. I was wrong about the entire crew I plotted around him: Demarcus Evans, Brett Martin, Cole Uvila, A.J. Alexy, Nick Snyder and trade deadline pickups Jordan Hicks and Amir Garrett.
Bullpen upgrades are standard July moves for teams in a race. In the lean years the Rangers have had since 2017, they’ve moved Sam Dyson, Jeremy Jeffress, Jesse Chavez, Keone Kela, Jake Diekman, Cory Gearrin, Pete Fairbanks, Chris Martin, Joely Rodríguez, Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush in midseason trades. Maybe this is the year they’re on the other side of a relief pitching deal or two. But even at this point, the repurposing of former starters Dunning, Brock Burke, Taylor Hearn and Cole Ragans into multi-inning bullpen weapons — enabled in part, of course, by the construction of the veteran rotation — has been a major positive.
March 2021 Fiction: Jonathan Hernández, Demarcus Evans, Brett Martin, Cole Uvila, A.J. Alexy and Nick Snyder – with Jordan Hicks and Amir Garrett joining mid-season
April 2023 Fact: Jonathan Hernández, José Leclerc, Brock Burke, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Cole Ragans, Will Smith, Ian Kennedy
Outfield/Designated hitter
The outfield is the one unit on which I’d shot bigger than the Rangers did in actuality. Figuring they’d pour some of their dollars into the outfield (and spend less than they did on the rotation and infield), I imagined Ketel Marte joining Joey Gallo (rediscovering his 2019 dominance after his ugly 2020 mini-season) on the corners, with Leody Taveras manning center field. Little did I know that Adolis García, after seven hitless plate appearances for Texas in the dog days of 2020, would turn in an All-Star season in 2021 and develop into a core piece.
I’d plugged Willie Calhoun in as the designated hitter, though “more with hope than with certitude.” His 2021 went poorly and his 2022 was going worse when Texas designated him for assignment and shipped him to the Giants in June. The current Brad Miller/Garver platoon at DH offers far more reliability than Calhoun did, if not the upside.
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One area where those tables turn is in the strength of the Rangers’ farm system. Going into 2021, Keith Law fairly ranked the Texas system 24th in baseball; now he has them at No. 7: “A vastly improved system in the past year or two. The Rangers have gotten healthy, seen some draft guys develop, and have an impressive group of international free-agent signees on their way from either the Dominican Summer League or the Arizona Complex League who could vault this system into the top 3 in a year.”
The importance of the improved system is that it may not take hundreds of millions of free-agent dollars to give the roster a boost while trying to return to the playoffs. With the outfield/DH spots offering the most room for improvement, it wouldn’t be out of the question for the Rangers’ top prospect, Double-A center fielder Evan Carter, to push his way into the picture this summer (or, less likely, outfielders Aaron Zavala or Dustin Harris or the infield bat Foscue). But while a 2023 debut for Carter may be a long shot, a trade for at least one impact bat during the season probably isn’t. In the middle six games of the Rangers’ first 10 games of the season, they scored a total of 12 runs. The offense is probably the next area of focus, and the outfield is where Texas can probably be most opportunistic.
The catcher tandem of Heim and Garver is more than acceptable. Of the remaining eight spots in the order, half of it — the infield — is set and should carry the offense. The outfield and DH are less secure. The productive (and affordable) Garcia is the best bet to last the season and beyond. The other spots are or will be manned by short-term veterans (Miller, Robbie Grossman) and unproven players (Taveras, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán, Bubba Thompson). Back in March 2021, I wrote that the “state of the infield … may be hazier than it’s ever been” in Texas. Now, that label fits the outfield and DH.
March 2021 Fiction: Ketel Marte, Leody Taveras, Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun
April 2023 Fact: Josh Smith/Ezequiel Durán, Adolis García, Robbie Grossman, Brad Miller/Mitch Garver
If the Rangers are going to stay in a pennant race all season, they’ve done most of the necessary work in these last two years. There are probably more moves needed, but it seems less far-fetched now with the rotation and middle infield that the front office has assembled. Bochy is in place with plenty of skins on the wall. Maybe Hicks and Garrett, each headed toward offseason free agency, end up joining the bullpen this July after all. But more importantly, maybe this is the summer when the Rangers use some of their high-end prospect inventory and go get the big bat the lineup seems to lack.
Then you won’t believe how much eye black I’ll be going through.
(Top photo of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien: Jamie Sabau / Getty Images)
