We had so many good questions remaining after publishing a trade-focused mailbag earlier this week, we’re back at it again. In part two of the mailbag, I answered 22 more questions from subscribers, covering everything from trade scenarios to early season takeaways to rookie standouts and top prospects. But we start with an early look at an impending free agent who could be playing his way into a big contract.
Questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
If Matt Chapman continues his strong play, will he have effectively priced himself out of Toronto? If so, where do you see him signing as a free agent? — David C.
The adjustments Chapman has made to his trigger at the plate, changing to a toe tap, have been significant. He’s staying back much better than in the past several years and using the whole field. We already know he has 25- to 30-home run power, and we know he’s the best defensive third baseman in the American League. But if he can continue to excel like this for the entire season, he’ll be one of the most sought-after free agents this winter. Several big-market teams could use a third baseman, which would certainly drive the price up. The Yankees need a long-term answer there. The Phillies could move Alec Bohm to first base and sign Chapman to play third base. He’d be an upgrade for the Dodgers over Max Muncy, and the Giants are always trying to add star power. However, I’ve heard Chapman, who will turn 30 next week, is happy in Toronto and I’ll be surprised if the front office doesn’t make a strong push to keep him. But yes, if he keeps this up, he’s going to get paid.
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When do the Dodgers make a move for a shortstop? Amed Rosario, maybe? — Nathan T.
Is there a trade match between the Dodgers (who need a shortstop) and the Guardians (who have a lot of shortstops)? — Andy J.
The Guardians are well-positioned to win the AL Central again, so trading Rosario, who will be a free agent after this season, doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. (They did just call up their top infield prospect, Brayan Rocchio, though he was sent back to Triple A after one game.) But I do agree the Dodgers need a shortstop this year. Miguel Rojas is a utility player at this point in his career, and now he’s on the injured list with a hamstring strain.
If I were the Dodgers, I would target Jorge Mateo of the Orioles because they could play Gunnar Henderson at short and Ramón Urías at third if they trade him. Mateo is a well-above-average defender and one of the fastest players in the league. I’d also call the Cardinals to see if they would move shortstop Tommy Edman or their top shortstop prospect, Masyn Winn, who appears to be major-league-ready. (Here’s more on Winn and what he showed this spring.) Don’t laugh, but I also might call the Tigers about Javier Báez, to see how much of his remaining salary they’d be willing to eat.
As a Braves fan, I feel that our rotation depth is going to be tested as the season drags on. Who are some low-cost, innings-eating options the team could pursue? — Justin F.
I think the Tigers will deal Eduardo Rodriguez at the trade deadline because of his opt-out clause, but he’s not low-cost. The Mariners have been open to trading Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. The Nationals would move Trevor Williams. The Rockies might move Austin Gomber. The Red Sox would listen to offers on Tanner Houck.
Which AL rookies have impressed you so far? With Anthony Volpe, Gunnar Henderson and Masataka Yoshida struggling out of the blocks, do you see any dark-horse Rookie of the Year candidates, or a potential midseason call-up making a run? — Thomas P.
Based solely on performance, the AL rookies who have stood out the most to me are Rangers third baseman Josh Jung, A’s center fielder Esteury Ruiz, Astros right-hander Hunter Brown and Rays righty Taj Bradley. However, I think Volpe will end up as the AL Rookie of the Year. He should start hitting pretty soon.
Which National League rookies have impressed you so far? — Trey H.
As expected, Corbin Carroll and Jordan Walker have been the most impressive NL rookies to start the season. One of the fastest players in baseball, Carroll is a strong bet to join the 30/30 club (home runs, stolen bases) in the near future. Walker is just a total beast. He got off to a fast start but has cooled recently. Other NL rookies who have impressed include Brewers center fielder Garrett Mitchell and second baseman Brice Turang and Dodgers outfielder James Outman. (Mitchell injured his shoulder this week and was placed on the injured list.)
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Is it time to be concerned about Masataka Yoshida?
No, I don’t think so. I’ve seen Yoshida enough to say he’s eventually going to hit, although I’m not sure how much his power will translate to MLB. Keep in mind he’s making a difficult cultural change: moving to a different country, learning about his new community, adjusting to a new language and probably eating different foods. Given time to work through this transition, I think he’ll end up hitting .270 with 15 to 18 home runs on the season.
How hot is Chaim Bloom’s seat? If the Red Sox are mired in last place all season, will the ownership finally make a change? — Ethan P.
There has been no indication from Red Sox ownership that they are contemplating a change. However, there is buzz around baseball circles that Bloom could be in trouble and Yankees executive Brian Sabean is one name that’s been circulating among people outside the organization as a possible replacement, according to multiple MLB execs and insiders involved in those conversations, who were granted anonymity to speak freely. Sabean, of course, won three world championships with the Giants and has a track record of building strong rotations. If the Red Sox made a change, he could be a strong candidate, but it’s unknown if Sabean, who’s currently an advisor to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, would want to go back to the grind of running a club’s baseball operations or even have interest if the opportunity arose. I do think Red Sox ownership will give Bloom, their chief baseball officer, the balance of the season before contemplating a change.
Are you ready to take your victory lap on Jarred Kelenic? — David H.
There is no victory lap when a prospect finally lives up to their potential. Kelenic was always a top prospect with the potential to be a 25- to 30-home run and 25- to 30-stolen base type. He had a difficult time early in his career, as so many top prospects do. But he’s still only 23 years old, and a player’s prime years are typically from 25 to 31. He had a strong spring training and is off to a great start to the season; now let’s see if he can do it over 162 games.
We have all been watching history being made every time Jordan Walker steps up to the plate. Based on what you’ve seen, what’s your overall take on him and who does he remind you of? — Stephen S.
My overall take is that Walker will be a future superstar. He reminds me most of Dave Winfield. They are both 6-foot-6 and don’t have holes in the strike zone, which is difficult to accomplish. Winfield was a .300 hitter with 35-home run power and the ability to drive in more than 100 runs. Walker, 20, has that in him, but he also has more speed and a better arm than the Hall of Famer. (In case you missed it, here’s what I wrote about Walker last August and this March.)
If Edouard Julien stays up for the remainder of the season, what’s his ceiling? Top 10 in the AL in on-base percentage? — Ken. K.
Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has been telling me about Julien, 23, over the past several years because he loves his bat and ability to get on base. The Twins believe he’s the real deal. He was off to a slow start before going 3-for-4 with a homer Wednesday at Fenway Park. It’s a performance-based business and he’ll obviously need to deliver to stay in the big leagues all year. Last season at Double A, he slashed .300/.441/.490 with 17 home runs in 508 plate appearances. More time at Triple A wouldn’t hurt. But to answer your question, I’d say his ceiling is top five in the AL in OBP.
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How high can (Yankees outfield prospect) Spencer Jones fly? — Jake K.
Above the clouds? To the moon? Jones, a first-round pick last year out of Vanderbilt, has begun his minor-league career by slashing .336/.412/.575 and stealing 15 bases in as many attempts. The 21-year-old started this season at High A and has certainly lived up to expectations since joining the Yankees organization.
Jim, I have become very excited about (Mets prospect) Ronny Mauricio. What are your thoughts on him? — Mike Z.
Mauricio is the best prospect in the Mets system and should be ready for the majors by the All-Star break. The Mets have primarily played Mauricio at shortstop, but with Francisco Lindor blocking him in the big leagues, I’m surprised they’re not moving him around, playing him at second and third base to give themselves more defensive options. Mauricio, 22, has surprising power and profiles as a 20-homer, 20-steals top-of-the-order difference-maker. Get excited!
The Rangers had high expectations for Jack Leiter. (But it) sounds like he has command issues and gets behind in the count often, leading to trouble. What is the likelihood a young pitcher like him can turn it around, and are there many examples of prospects being able to figure this out? — Brent K.
Leiter can turn it around, but keep in mind he’s always had command and control issues. He averaged four walks per nine innings during his last two years at Vanderbilt despite putting up ERAs of 1.72 and 2.13 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Often, control and command are the last two things a young pitcher figures out, and the Rangers hope that’s the case with Leiter, who will turn 23 on Friday. Developing pitchers is just as important as drafting them, and the onus is on the Rangers’ player development staff to make the necessary adjustments to help him take this step. Keep in mind, Hall of Famer Randy Johnson led the majors in walks each season from 1990-92, with 120, 152 and 144. He would go on to walk fewer than 80 batters per year in the final decade of his career. However, this type of transformation takes serious adjustments in a pitcher’s approach and delivery.
Can the Rangers keep winning and make the postseason? … How badly will Corey Seager’s injury affect them? — Matthew G.
The Rangers can keep winning as long as their starting rotation stays healthy. The AL West should be a great race all year among the Astros, Mariners, Angels and Rangers, with the A’s being the only team with no chance to make the playoffs. I see the Rangers winning more games than they lose but missing out on the postseason. And yes, Seager is a huge loss. He’s their best player.
The Brewers and their “freshmen” are performing well. How does the team’s performance change your outlook on its 2023 postseason chances (and beyond)? — Cole R.
Like everyone else, I have been very impressed with the Brewers’ “freshmen.” It’s not just their athleticism, speed and positive energy; the closeness of the clubhouse is also apparent. We all know, when healthy, the Brewers have the best rotation in the NL Central — by a lot. We also know this offense is going to be way better than expected. This is definitely a postseason-worthy team that’s capable of winning the division or securing one of the wild-card berths. Fun team to watch.
When the Brewers trade Corbin Burnes this offseason, how big of a return would you expect? He’d only have one year of control remaining, but at minimum, he’s a top five pitcher in baseball. — Tom G.
It really depends on whether the Brewers are willing to let the team that acquires Burnes sign him to a long-term contract at the time of the trade, which would be the ideal situation for them because that would maximize their return. If so, I would expect the Brewers to receive two top-10 prospects, along with a mid-level prospect and a top-25 prospect. It would be a huge return. However, if the acquiring team is just getting one year of control, then you’re probably looking at one top-10 prospect and two top-25 prospects, depending on the strength of that team’s farm system. Of course, that’s just a ballpark estimate at this point.
It’s early, but what I’ve seen so far from Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Ryan Weathers gives me hope for the back end of the Padres rotation. I trust that Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are going to be the “inning brutes” they always are. With Fernando Tatis Jr. (returning from his suspension this week), it looks like a summer to remember in San Diego. Your thoughts? — Adam R.
I had the Padres winning the World Series in my preseason predictions, so that’s what I think of their team. I can’t wait to see Tatis back on Thursday and stacked in the same lineup with Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts; it’s going to be the best four-player stack of hitters in the game. The key for the Padres will be Blake Snell bouncing back from a slow start, Darvish and Musgrove living up to the back of their baseball cards, and Josh Hader being one of the top three closers in the league. It’s going to be a fun summer in Slam Diego.
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Is there an upgrade for the Rays to pursue outside of catcher, pitching depth or possibly a right-handed-hitting outfield thumper? (They have a) deep farm system and (are off to) a great start — time to lean into this year and build an October team? — Brad O.
The Rays are always going to prioritize the long term over the short term, which they have to do with their limited revenue stream. I don’t see that changing. However, they do have a lot of depth and will be open-minded and opportunistic if the right deal comes along. They have the depth to make a quantity-for-quality type trade at the deadline, as long as that quality player is not too expensive and has years of control remaining. As far as their possible needs, I think you broke them down perfectly.
At what point do the Cubs end the Eric Hosmer experiment and call up Matt Mervis? — Jack C.
Yesterday works for me. I loved Hosmer in his prime. I respect his four Gold Glove awards, his Silver Slugger Award and the fact he finished top 25 in AL MVP voting twice. However, the Padres moved on from Hosmer last year, as did the Red Sox, and it won’t be long before the Cubs do the same at some point this year.
Signed in 2020 as an undrafted free agent out of Duke, Mervis deserves his first opportunity in the majors. Last year he hit 36 home runs with 119 RBIs and slashed .309/.379/.605 across three levels (High A, Double A, Triple A). The 25-year-old can’t run a lick. He’s a below-average defender at first base, but still playable over there. He makes contact and the power is real.
Whom can the Giants trade from their 26-man roster to get some decent prospects for their semi-barren farm? Is there anyone with value? — Mark B.
Several players on the Giants’ 26-man roster are tradable. If I’m San Francisco, I would sell high on J.D. Davis. I would see if the Yankees had interest in Joc Pederson at the trade deadline. And if Michael Conforto has a good first half, he’ll be tradable because he has an opt-out clause after this season. The Giants also have some quality veteran starters, from Anthony DeSclafani to Alex Cobb, who will generate interest from contenders in July. And, of course, they have a 25-year-old closer, Camilo Doval, who will be in demand.
How worried should the Astros be about their early season pitching woes? The bullpen has looked shaky and the staff looks to still be in preseason form. Thoughts? — Kuji
I am not worried about the Astros. They are the best team in the AL West. Despite the subpar start, I still see them winning the division by five games. Hunter Brown (2-0, 1.93 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise; combine him with starters Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy, and I have zero concern. The Astros will be getting Lance McCullers Jr. back at some point and Luis Garcia will turn things around. The bullpen is in great shape with Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek. And although Ryan Pressley got off to a poor start, he’s too dominant not to get right.
Small sample size alert, but Victor Robles looks like a much better hitter with his new stance and hand placement. … Could the Nats look to deal him to a team (in need of a center fielder) at the deadline, as his defense is still top notch as well? And if so, what type of return could he bring back? — Joseph G.
No team is going to buy into Robles’ solid start unless he can maintain it into July. If he can, then yes, he would have trade value at the deadline. But remember, Robles is still only 25 years old. He’s hitting .288 with a .373 OBP and three stolen bases, and can run down plays in center field. So if he can maintain this, he would draw interest from contenders. However, knowing how much Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo likes Robles, I think they would keep him in that scenario.
(Top photo of Matt Chapman: Eric Christian Smith / Associated Press)
