Zay Flowers, Brian Branch and 8 other NFL Draft prospects our experts love

Boston, MA - September 3: Boston Colleges Zay Flowers points to the crowd while running into the end zone during the 2nd quarter. BC lost to Rutgers, 22-21. (Photo by Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
By Nick Baumgardner and Diante Lee
Apr 22, 2023

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In his legendary book, “Finding the Winning Edge” — a literal manual on how to be a professional football coach — Bill Walsh wrote a near 14,000-word chunk about how to properly evaluate players via the NFL Draft. It included every detail, from how a fullback should be built to how sturdy a lineman’s “ballast” must be.

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However, before going into that opus, Walsh distills his entire draft philosophy down to one critical question: “Can this individual make a meaningful contribution to the team?”

Not “next year’s” team, but “the team” — right now. For all the focus on traits and tests and interviews, the best teams still draft with their basic instinct of finding guys who are going to add value the minute they walk in the door.

Related: NFL Draft best available players

Here are 10 prospects from the 2023 NFL Draft that we think meet that standard (Nick Baumgardner’s favorites on offense, Diante Lee’s on defense). A few could go in Round 1, others might land on Day 2 or 3, but these are 10 guys we’d pound the proverbial war room table for on draft weekend.

Offense

Peter Skoronski, G/T, Northwestern

It’s a familiar conversation, and one not without merit: Skoronski’s not a long player, period. At 32 1/4 inches, his arms are shorter by a decent bit than ex-Northwestern teammate and the No. 13 pick in 2021 RaShawn Slater (33 inches).

It’s fair to have concerns about Skoronski giving up his chest to longer defenders, as it happened quite a bit during his time at Northwestern. However, as was the case with Slater, Skoronski’s unique. His ability to change up his approach versus longer pass rushers (or, really, just about anyone he sees) — sometimes, even series to series — is advanced. His size limitations have forced him to become a technician, and he’s exactly that. Skorosnki is like a cerebral pitcher in baseball: studying tape, honing his strategy and making sure his approach isn’t predictable.

He pass protects, with both his hands and feet, like a seasoned professional. Skoronski got better every year he was at Northwestern. Be it at guard or tackle, he’s capable of immediately upgrading an offensive line.

Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

As we’ve written for months, this tight end class is very special. We could see as many as four first-rounders from it, and at least seven tight ends could come off the board before Round 3 ends on Friday night. However, among all the freaky guys in that position, Mayer, the Notre Dame sensation, has the fewest holes in his game. He is the closest there is to a sure bet on offense in, perhaps, this entire draft.

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His ability to make contested catches in traffic will be among the best for all NFL tight ends as soon as he plays his first game. Mayer has been pro-ready from a play-strength standpoint for at least two years, and he won’t turn 22 until July. He is as rock solid as it gets at 6-foot-4, 249 pounds, both at the catch point and afterward. Notre Dame’s quarterback situation in 2022 was hardly stellar — the program was going through a major transition — and Mayer still caught almost everything hurled his way.

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Darnell Washington has a higher ceiling as a run blocker; Dalton Kincaid may make more big plays over time as a receiver. But Mayer is the most complete prospect.

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Great receiver prospects come in different packages. There are several examples of this in the 2023 draft, but Flowers might be the prime case. Size is obviously a limitation, but Flowers (5-9, 182) is a disciplined and consistent football player who has developed extra tools to help offset any concerns about his stature.

Flowers was among the early wave of NIL transfer targets — a superstar on a bad team that went through a coaching change as his NFL stock was soaring. He turned down sizable money, though, to fulfill the commitment he made at Boston College and help Jeff Hafley build his program, and he became the school’s all-time leading receiver in the process. He’s different. That’s the summary, in so many ways, on Flowers because it’s tough to put him in a box.

Play strength is always going to be an issue. (He can improve, but he’ll never totally negate it.) He also has to be better at snagging the ball with his hands. However, the great thing about cerebral workers like Flowers is that you can almost set your watch to the idea of him improving over time. If his health holds, he’s going to get better the more he plays.

He doesn’t waste reps, he doesn’t waste movement; he’s a full-body route runner who gets the absolute most out of what he has.

Steve Avila, OL, TCU

Versatility, toughness and trustworthiness: If an offensive lineman possesses those three things, he has a shot. For me, Avila has all of them in spades. During his five years at TCU, Avila spread 35 starts over four positions on the offensive line for the Horned Frogs, including an entire year at center.

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As a run blocker and a pass protector, Avila is always up for a fistfight and wins far more than he loses. He doesn’t get bullied. He’s never passive with his hands, recovers well, and is rarely, if ever, in the wrong spot.

Positional value goes up whenever an O-line prospect has the size and length to play tackle. However, players like Avila — who’s likely going to be better playing inside at guard or center — often get undervalued. That Avila can work in at tackle (and has done so in the past), too, will be very appealing. You need flexible spokes on the wheel just in case, and that’s part of Avila’s value.

He can walk onto a roster and start at guard next season, and while there will be a growth period, he’s not going to be overwhelmed. Once it all clicks, Avila’s good enough to help change (or further strengthen) a team’s offensive-line culture. If something needed to be done at TCU, Avila did it without complaint or even a blink — usually, very well.

“I always tell the coaches, wherever you need me at (I’m there),” Avila told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in 2020. “I can hand out water if you need me to. I don’t have a big deal doing anything.”

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tulane

Not sure if we can call Spears a “late-bloomer,” but because of an ACL injury in 2020, that’s sort of how it went. Spears, however, showed flashes early in his career of being the guy we saw in 2022 (1,581 yards, 19 TD, 256 receiving yards) — he averaged better than seven yards per carry before his injury.

Spears also reminds me a bit of Flowers, in that he had late-cycle recruiting momentum and could’ve upgraded his situation at Tulane for a bigger offer, but didn’t. He stuck with Tulane, then eventually wound up as Cotton Bowl MVP in his final game.

There are injury concerns here, of course. But Spears is a 21-year-old running back who had fewer than 420 carries during his college career. He runs and plays with such a great combination of explosion and agility that he’ll often make you forget he’s a 4.52-second 40-yard dash guy.

The other deceptive part about Spears’s game: Despite his underwhelming size (5-9, 201), he can be an effective runner between the tackles and has the potential — especially in pass protection — to be a true three-down back.

Defense

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Tall, long-armed, smooth and legitimately fast, Gonzalez is the physical prototype of the big corners the NFL constantly covets. Gonzalez was solid during his two seasons at Colorado (2020-21), but transferring to Oregon and developing his game helped unlock his full potential and shoot him up draft boards.

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His combination of fluid hips, long speed and ball skills make him an excellent zone corner. In the few instances in which his instincts may fail him, he has the athletic tools to get back in the picture and squeeze throwing windows. Gonzalez also has the tracking and leaping ability to keep any pass in play, and he’s a dynamic runner when he does get the ball in his hands.

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An ability to play well from the slot is a major selling point for Gonzalez — he features an uncanny ability to match routes at his size. Oregon oftentimes used him as its nickel corner, and having Gonzalez’s length and agility around the middle of the field forced quarterbacks to think twice.

He will relax in coverage at times and give up some frustrating completions, and you’d expect him to be much more physical at the line of scrimmage when pressing or taking on blocks (especially for a player with his dimensions: 6-1, 197). His ceiling, though, is firmly in the Pro Bowl/All-Pro territory, and he has enough elite traits to feel confident that his best play is ahead of him.

Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Much like college teammate Will Anderson Jr., Branch has been labeled as a “safe” pick throughout the pre-draft process, to the point that it sells short what Branch brings to the table.

He is agile, tough, versatile, and arguably the most instinctual defensive back in this draft class. While spending most of his time last season in the slot, Branch earned first-team All-America honors, led the Crimson Tide in interceptions (two) and finished second in tackles for loss (14) — that’s in spite of sharing snaps with 2024 draft prospect Malachi Moore.

Branch sees the game a half-step faster than most prospects coming out of college. He breaks on the ball quickly, tackles with good technique, and plays each snap with a high motor and desire to win his individual matchup. He’s an excellent blitzer, too — he times up the snap well and rarely takes undisciplined angles to the ball.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

NFL Draft scouting: How can dynamic Alabama safety Brian Branch help an NFL defense?

Branch is not going to wow you with measurables (5-11, 190 with just OK speed), and there will be valid questions to ask about whom to match him up against in coverage. Still, he’s the kind of player you can mold your defensive backfield around and can have a Kyle Hamilton-like impact early in his career.

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Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Banks was the last of the top corners in this class I evaluated, and I still struggle to understand why the conversation around his draft stock isn’t louder.

No matter where the trends of split-safety defense and zone coverage in the NFL take us, there’s no higher commodity on the perimeter than a press corner who doesn’t need help over the top — and Banks’ tape is littered with positive examples of one-on-one coverage. At 6-1 and nearly 200 pounds, Banks plays like a bully, but he has the long speed (4.35 at the combine) to run stride for stride against anyone.

He’s still learning the finer details of how to win at the line of scrimmage against top-end route runners, so his career may start out a bit boom-or-bust. (Expect to groan at the television because of some ill-timed holds and illegal contact calls against him.) Once he irons out his discipline, though, Banks can be a top-flight NFL corner.

Gervon Dexter Sr., DT, Florida

ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt has a saying I’ve often applied to prospect evaluation: “At this level, everybody’s ‘good’ … but how ‘good’ is your ‘good?'”

For Dexter, his “good” looks to be on the same level as or better than every other defensive tackle in this class, save for Jalen Carter. His play strength is impressive, plus he has a legitimate anchor as a run defender, and his hand fighting is well-developed for his age. At 6-5, 310 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan and a 4.88 40-yard dash, Dexter’s combination of size and athleticism are hard to look away from — and he’s not close to the best version of himself yet.

The gap between what Dexter is and what he could be boils down to consistency, which he lacks right now. For as explosive as he can be, his get-off is poor, and his finishing/pursuit waxes and wanes. He’s going to need to show he can deliver in a smaller role before being trusted as an every-down interior defender, but I think the tools are enticing enough to justify a top-50 pick.

Marte Mapu, S/LB, Sacramento State

In every draft, I have at least one guy I call my shot on. This year, it’s Mapu.

A hybrid/slot defender type (which is a particular soft spot of mine), Mapu has the length and play style — walking the line between aggression and recklessness — that you can mold into an effective off-ball defender. I saw Mapu in person at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl, and he instantly separated himself with his motor, instincts as a run defender and physicality.

At 6-3, 220, Mapu has the build of the prototypical strong safety, and he can thrive playing close to the line of scrimmage. With 141 tackles (12 for loss) and 29 combined passes defended and intercepted over the past two seasons, Mapu has proven that he can find his way to the ball.

His early fit is going to be a bit tricky, though. For as physical and aggressive a downhill player as he is, living that way at sub-240 pounds is a recipe for pain in an NFL box. However, he’s also not quite explosive enough to hold up in tight coverage against the better slot receivers in the league. The best path for him is to add weight so he can bounce between a big-nickel and weakside-linebacker role. He’s going to add value on special teams right out of the gate, too, and that’ll buy him the time he needs to develop.

In an underwhelming class of linebackers, Mapu’s one of the few with a legitimately high ceiling.

(Photo of Zay Flowers: Erin Clark / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

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