Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft likes to keep things close to his vest during the regular season, so his answer wasn’t surprising when asked which goaltender he’d go with for Game 5.
“When you have two great goaltenders,” he said, “I don’t think you can go wrong picking either one of them.”
It’s a nice thought, in theory. Of course, that’s not how it works.
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Only one of Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell can start. Woodcroft will look like a genius if the Oilers win and a dope if they lose.
So, Woodcroft and his lieutenants have a crucial decision to make heading into a swing game of their series against the Kings. It’s a decision that, if overthought, could be more convoluted than it needs to be.
The choice should be obvious. The Oilers should turn to Skinner, the guy who’s been their No. 1 netminder for the last six months.
The Oilers wouldn’t have had home-ice advantage in this series and finished a single win behind Vegas for top spot in the Western Conference this season were it not for Skinner. He assumed the starting job in November amid Campbell’s struggles and exceeded all expectations.
Skinner was voted into the NHL All-Star Game and will get tons of Calder Trophy consideration for rookie of the year.
Guys like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins got more attention for surpassing the 100-point barrier. McDavid had a season for the ages, too. But it was Skinner who was the backbone of the team.
He was 14th in the NHL with a .913 save percentage among goalies with at least 2,000 minutes played. He also stopped 14.2 goals above average in all situations, which put him 12th for all netminders, per Natural Stat Trick.
Everyone knows the playoffs haven’t gone according to quite the same script.
By his own evaluation, Skinner was average in Game 1 — an overtime loss in which he allowed the tying goal with 16.7 seconds left in regulation — and he’s mostly been that way since.
Game 4 represented his worst result of the series as he surrendered three goals on 11 shots before giving way to Campbell to begin the second period.
Skinner had a chance to stop all three pucks that got past him, but each time a Kings player had an unfettered shot from in close after a missed assignment by a teammate. None of the goals could or should be pinned directly on the 24-year-old goalie.
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Skinner has a ton of room for improvement in this series. His .881 save percentage and 2.20 goals allowed above average speak to that.
But he’s shown all season he’s been able to recover quickly from dips in his play. There’s no time better than now for the coaching staff to show that faith in him and trust he’ll do that again.
Which brings us to Campbell.
Campbell was excellent in relief in Game 4. There’s no mistaking that, and he deserves a tremendous amount of credit for his efforts.
The Oilers don’t mount a comeback nor do they emerge victorious without Campbell making 27 saves on 28 shots. His breakaway save on Viktor Arvidsson with less than six minutes remaining in the third period set the stage for Evander Kane’s tying goal and Zach Hyman’s winner.
All that means something.
What it should mean is the Oilers can feel more confident than they have in ages if they have to turn to Campbell again in the event of a downright terrible start from Skinner or an injury.
Woodcroft has said repeatedly, as he did Monday, that he trusts both goalies. It sounded like he was blowing smoke every time he said it before now. All anyone had to do was see the disparity in starts, watch Campbell in the net when he was playing, and look at the goalie’s stats to find that hard to believe.
The way Campbell held the Oilers in on Sunday certainly should inspire more assurance from anyone with a vested interest in the team.
“It’s nice to get a shot,” Campbell said after the game.
He made good on it. But, when it comes down to it, two and a half periods don’t remake an entire season.
Yes, Campbell was stellar in his last two starts against the Ducks. He allowed just one goal on 64 shots, including his first shutout as an Oiler. But there’s only so much stock that can be placed on excelling against the worst team in the NHL.
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The season up until that point had been utterly disastrous for Campbell. He’d posted an in-game save percentage of .900 or better in just 14 of his 34 starts before those two Anaheim contests.
By the time the playoffs started, Campbell had an ugly .888 save percentage next to his name. That was better than only Martin Jones, Kaapo Kahkonen and Jonathan Quick for goalies that played at least 2,000 minutes. He was 70th out of 79 goalies with a minimum of 500 minutes by allowing 16.64 goals above average in all situations, per Natural Stat Trick.
Does all that sound like someone who should be the first choice to start the most pivotal game of the season? It doesn’t to me.
Don’t get me wrong; Skinner’s leash just got a whole lot shorter after everything that went down on Sunday — and it should. He hasn’t been good enough in this series.
The NHL is a winning business and that’s never truer than at this time of year. The more capable goaltender is the one who gets the net.
There’s reason to think that person is Campbell based on Sunday’s work and how he was touted as a bona fide No.1 goaltender when he signed with the Oilers last July.
The thing is, as has been proven over and over again this season, Skinner at his best has been better than Campbell at his best. Skinner at his worst has been better than Campbell at his worst, too.
The Oilers had all season to determine their No. 1 goaltender. The results have been overwhelmingly in Skinner’s favour.
There are no grounds to overthink this and move away from him now with the high stakes the Oilers face in Game 5.
(Photo: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
