2023 NFL Draft experts roundtable: Best QB landing spots, sleepers and more

2023 NFL Draft experts roundtable: Best QB landing spots, sleepers and more

The Athletic NFL Staff
Apr 30, 2023

The 2023 NFL Draft started down a chaotic path way back on March 10, when the Bears and Panthers swung a trade for the No. 1 pick. The intrigue carried on through an unpredictable, entertaining draft weekend.

With all 259 picks in the books, our experts are ready to break down the action. What did Nick Baumgardner, Scott Dochterman and Diante Lee make of this year’s draft?

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1. Let’s start with the quarterbacks. Three of them were taken in the first round: Bryce Young (No. 1 by Carolina), C.J. Stroud (No. 2 by Houston) and Anthony Richardson (No. 4 by Indianapolis). Will Levis had to wait until pick 33 (Tennessee). How do you feel about the respective landing spots? Did teams make a mistake by passing on Levis?

Nick Baumgardner: The first three felt right. I never — not once — thought Levis should be third in line here, let alone second. Once Richardson went, it made little sense for anyone to trade up for QB4.

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Diante Lee: Schematically, the situation I’m most comfortable with is Stroud in Houston, because the infrastructure of the “Shanny ball” scheme is the best to protect QBs as they develop. The Texans have tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard in the building plus an exciting running back in Dameon Pierce, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has a strong grasp of which passing concepts will work for a young, accurate quarterback.

Young could’ve used a player like, oh, D.J. Moore to throw to. The Panthers’ offensive line is already good, though, and head coach Frank Reich will surround Young with several of the best QB coaches the NFL has to offer. Richardson won’t enjoy the same spoils early in his career, but Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen knows how to maximize a player with Richardson’s skillset, having worked with some of the best QBs in the league.

Scott Dochterman: All three of Young, Stroud and Richardson landed in good situations, because they all have first-year coaches with the ability to absorb their ups and downs. Young’s spot is the best — he has the full confidence of the entire organization plus a head coach with decades of experience at that position. There’s not a lot there as far as weapons go, but the offensive line will ensure it’s not a disaster.

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Both the Texans and Colts have veteran buffers for Stroud and Richardson, respectively, but I’d be surprised if Stroud doesn’t start right away. Richardson’s situation is more complicated, and it might be difficult to exert much patience if the quarterback position is holding down the Colts at midseason.

I don’t see any team regretting its decision to pass on Levis. Too many teams have taken first-round risks on quarterbacks who fail or become journeymen, and Levis could fall into that category. Perhaps he’s Derek Carr as a second-rounder in the right organization; maybe he would have been Blaine Gabbert as a first-rounder in the wrong one. But I think his landing spot was perfect.

Baumgardner: I think the league’s book on Levis throughout the draft process was that he was going to be there at the bottom of the first round, so I wondered if a team like Minnesota might try it late Thursday night. When that didn’t happen, it made sense for Tennessee to do at 33 what we thought they might with their first-round pick.

The Commanders are the other team that might’ve made sense for Levis. It really feels like they’re waiting to go all-in next year, because — and I’m sorry — I can’t get there right now with Sam Howell.

Lee: I wouldn’t consider it a mistake for teams to have passed on Levis. In fact, by waiting until the second round, the Titans had the opportunity to draft Peter Skoronski, who will help bolster an offensive line that needed more talent. Levis won’t have to start there, and the franchise can build around him in earnest if he proves to be the guy.

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2. There was another run on quarterbacks in Day 3, starting with Jake Haener to New Orleans (No. 127). Which mid- or late-round QB will have the best chance to succeed?

Lee: This is a difficult question to answer, because the depth chart dictates how many reps these guys will get in camp. In my mind, there’s only one QB out of the bunch with a chance to compete for the starting job right away: Aidan O’Connell in Las Vegas. It’s just hard to know what Jimmy Garoppolo will be in 2023, now that he’s on the wrong side of 30 and coming back from a broken foot.

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Dochterman: There’s so much to like about O’Connell, and I think it all translates well to Las Vegas. He’s almost 25 and played in a high-tempo offense at Purdue. He began his career as a walk-on, endured his coach’s game of musical quarterbacks and still started 27 games. He threw for 500 yards twice, and he beat two top-five teams. He may not have a big arm, but he’s accurate. Considering Garoppolo’s injury-plagued career, O’Connell could get serious snaps at some point in 2023.

He’s  mature and mentally tough enough to handle it. As for whether or not that will equal “success,” I’m not sure.

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Baumgardner: Purdue asked O’Connell to do an awful lot in Jeff Brohm’s offense, and he delivered an accurate ball with good anticipation and a quick release throughout his career. He made mistakes — Purdue’s roster had limitations, and he’s hardly an overwhelming athlete. Who knows if he’ll ever be a starter, but he’s the type of high-floor passer who should be able to adjust to what Josh McDaniels wants to do pretty quickly.

I’d wondered if O’Connell might be the next QB off the board after Hendon Hooker (No. 68 to Detroit). I still like O’Connell a bit better than Haener.

Lee: In general, Tanner McKee has the best job, because as Jalen Hurts’ backup — if he’s forced into action — he’d be standing behind an excellent offensive line and throwing it to DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert, among others. You could do much worse than being surrounded by a half-dozen Pro Bowl-level teammates.

Max Duggan landed in a similar position with the Chargers, as he’ll have Quentin Johnston, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen around him. I’d be proud to wear the baseball hat and hold the clipboard for either of those offenses.

3. Dane Brugler will be ranking each team’s draft class, 1 to 32, on Monday. Your turn first: What were your favorite hauls this year?

Dochterman: It was an odd draft, in part because some teams were great early but then either fizzled or didn’t have many Day 3 picks. Detroit’s draft was an unorthodox, hot mess, but it achieved everything the Lions could have wanted and more. New England’s choices were fantastic in the first three rounds but puzzling afterward. I thought Indianapolis was terrific. And, of course, Philadelphia rocked the whole thing.

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But two teams really stood out for me, for different reasons. One is Pittsburgh, which was both aggressive and prudent. The Steelers went up for a starting tackle in Broderick Jones and then resisted all enticing trade offers, stayed at No. 32 and drafted Joey Porter Jr. Later, they added Keeanu Benton, who’s built for their defensive line, and stole tight end Darnell Washington. They also selected Nick Herbig, who should start early. A beautiful draft.

The other is … Cleveland. The Browns more than made up for not having a first- or second-round pick in the later rounds. They might have found five future starters in defensive tackle Siaki Ika, edge Isaiah McGuire, X receiver Cedric Tillman, massive offensive tackle Dawand Jones and center Luke Wypler.

Baumgardner: The Eagles.

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But I also like what the Colts have done, in general. They’re set to develop and take some time with Richardson, which is great. To get Julius Brents and Darius Rush beyond that is pretty awesome. Rush, a fifth-rounder, was one of my favorite Day 3 selections. Josh Downs could be a great fit in Shane Steichen’s offense, too. The Colts are going to see if they can figure out Blake Freeland, and they’ll find something for Adetomiwa Adebawore to do. Will Mallory and Evan Hull are quality picks who could help right away.

I also liked that New England draft. Marte Mapu was my favorite pick on Friday, and I’ll take the bet that Bill Belichick can get more out of Keion White (No. 46 overall) and Kayshon Boutte (No. 187) than their respective draft positions suggest. Eastern Michigan guard Sidy Sow is a legit athlete who can protect and be a bully in the run game, and Troy center Jake Matthews could be a great find at pick 107. Even Michigan State punter Bryce Baringer is legit. It’s a classic Belichick draft.

I also think the Bears got tougher in the trenches, which had to be a goal for them this weekend.

Lee: I’m over the moon looking at Chicago’s draft haul.

After heading into the offseason with the No. 1 selection, general manager Ryan Poles flipped it to Carolina and eventually landed Darnell Wright, Gervon Dexter Sr., Tyrique Stevenson, Zacch Pickens and Roschon Johnson within the first 150 picks. Addressing the trenches — and, especially, taking a chance on Wright as the right tackle of the future — should give the Bears a window to fill premium positions with players on rookie contracts. In turn, that could allow Poles to add big-money veterans at skill positions down the road. It looks like Chicago’s ownership found the perfect GM to lead the franchise back out of the darkness.

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Philadelphia bringing in three more starters from Georgia’s suffocating 2021 and 2022 defenses was a great mix of talent acquisition and comedy. Howie Roseman is Occam’s Razor manifested as a GM — the best way to improve your defense is to add talent from the best defense in college football.

4. On the opposite end of things, was there a pick (or a trade) that left you scratching your head?

Baumgardner: Detroit made some polarizing picks, if you’re a big positional-value person. Though I do like Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell and think he’ll be good, it’s still hard for me to justify taking him at No. 18.

I don’t mind Jahmyr Gibbs at 12; don’t even mind taking Campbell. Could the Lions have played the situation better, though? I like the players but can’t shake that thought. Either way, Lions GM Brad Holmes believes his team ready to win now. If that’s an accurate assessment of the roster, then these picks are fine.

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Dochterman: I have two. I understand why Poles drafted Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright at 10 — the Bears need to keep Justin Fields upright. But given that the defense generated just 20 sacks last year and Matt Eberflus needs a quality three-tech, I thought the Bears missed an opportunity when Jalen Carter fell in their laps.

I also thought the Lions reached by giving up a fourth-round pick and two fifths to draft Western Kentucky defensive tackle Brodric Martin late in the third round. After killing it with the James Houston pick in the seventh round last year, Holmes has the right to trust his instincts on an under-the-radar guy like Martin. Maybe Martin, whom Dane projected as a seventh-rounder, turns out to be another great find. But the Lions gave up too much.

Lee: What was Detroit’s process in stacking its draft board this year? I could understand them wanting Bijan Robinson early in Round 1, but once he was gone, why use the 12th pick on Gibbs? He’s probably better than D’Andre Swift (who’s already been traded to Philadelphia), so I can make peace with the Lions wanting to move on, but Gibbs shouldn’t have been the pick there. It’s the same thing with Campbell at 18. He has decent range, plays well when he’s moving downhill and is physical enough to improve Detroit’s run defense … but he wasn’t a first-round prospect by most estimations.

I agree that the Lions and Holmes are making a major statement about their belief in this current roster, and I hope they’re right. It’s hard to come across opportunities like Detroit had, and it may have been squandered.

5. Give us the pick (or picks) that we’re not talking enough about right now but will have an impact, either this coming season or down the road.

Baumgardner: I really liked Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison coming in and thought he had a shot to crack the first round. Jacksonville moved around some, but Harrison was a strong addition at No. 27 for Trevor Lawrence. I think he can be an effective protector in the NFL.

Lee: That’s a great call. The more I watched of Harrison, the more I believed in what he can turn into as he ages and develops. He has so many of the necessary traits to succeed in the league, and his play strength can be fixed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get better every week he’s on the field.

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I have a few third rounders I loved in this draft, too, and they all landed in excellent situations to develop their skill sets. Mapu is going to need a year to adjust to living in the box full-time, especially in New England’s defense, but his versatility marries perfectly with what the Patriots have in Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, and Jabrill Peppers as hybrid types.

Devon Achane as the newest member of the Miami Dolphins’ 4×100 relay team is awesome. Not only is Achane a burner of the highest order, but people will be pleasantly surprised to see how natural of a running back he is.

The last one I’ll mention is Jordan Battle to Cincinnati. The Bengals adding a versatile deep safety to replace Jessie Bates means that Dax Hill is more likely to spend his time in the slot, which is where I think his skill set is best served.

Dochterman: Buffalo found a great weapon in Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid. His 16-catch game against USC during Pac-12 After Dark was a real head-turner last season. He’s going to be a difference maker for the Bills come December and January.

6. Quick hitter to close: Who’s your favorite undrafted prospect?

Dochterman: Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim (reportedly signed by Detroit). He doesn’t look the part on tape, but in person, he’s tough. I’ve called him “Baby Beast Mode” for a long time. Just give him the rock when it gets cold.

Lee: Defensive tackle Jalen Redmond of Oklahoma (reportedly signed by Carolina) is a productive gap shooter on the interior with real value, if he can just stay upright.

Baumgardner: Cincinnati linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. (reportedly signed by Minnesota). Don’t let Pace’s size fool you, he’s a football player.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Larry Placido / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images,
Wesley Hitt, Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

 

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