The Panthers pull off a playoff miracle: How they did it and why this run can continue

Would it be hyperbolic to say that we just witnessed the biggest series upset in the history of the Stanley Cup playoffs? Nope.

In fact, it’s closer to “mathematically correct.” The Florida Panthers finished this season 43 points behind the Boston Bruins. No seven-game series featuring a gap that large had ever gone to the lower seed … until now. Florida plays on after Sunday’s 4-3 overtime win, with the Toronto Maple Leafs up next. Boston gets to put the Presidents’ Trophy in a golf cart.

Still, we should be careful here. It’s too easy to look at a result that seismic, that shocking, and forget about the process. The Panthers deserved every bit of this. The signs were there — down the stretch, they went 19-10-2 and needed every solitary point in the bank, so they became accustomed to urgency. They were a better team than their record suggested. The Bruins, fantastic as they were, had also benefited from some good luck. This isn’t hindsight; it was in the numbers.

But acknowledging that this outcome was less impossible than you probably thought and watching it come to pass, especially after going down 3-1 in the series? Those are two different things. The Panthers pulled it off, though — and it wasn’t an accident. They earned this.

Ending the Alex Lyon experience at the right time

Paul Maurice has taken his share of heat over the last quarter century or so, and plenty of it has been earned. “Most games coached in NHL history without a Stanley Cup” isn’t a record anybody wants. But at the moment, the man deserves his flowers; he pushed the right buttons at the right time, starting with his decision to switch from Lyon to Sergei Bobrovsky after Game 3.

That’s not meant to slag Lyon, either. The Panthers’ season would have ended weeks ago without him. But after bookending a Game 2 win with two eminently shaky losses — he allowed six goals on 49 shots in those two games and a negative GSAx in both — it was time for a change. It’s not that Bobrovsky was great. He didn’t steal any of his wins, though Game 5 (44 saves on 47 shots) was close enough. But Lyon was clearly wobbling, plus only one of the two had managed to pull off a first-round upset of a Presidents’ Trophy winner before (Bobrovsky with the Blue Jackets in 2019). It’s a contrast to Jim Montgomery’s handling of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman; he gave Ullmark a longer leash, and it might have cost Boston the series.

Brandon Montour’s tour de force

If Montour played for a Canadian team and had a name that could be easily twisted into a Norris Trophy pun, he’d have gotten the Josh Morrissey treatment. Instead, he worked in relative silence on his own super-productive, imperfect but still good season, finishing with the quietest 73 points you’ll ever see. Against Boston he was a menace, scoring five times, and putting up four multipoint games. In Game 7, he opened things up in the first period with a one-man breakout, then a give-and-go backhand past Swayman.

Brandon Montour puts a backhander past Swayman to kick off the scoring for the Panthers in Game 7!#TimeToHunt pic.twitter.com/VyMqnHHFSI

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) April 30, 2023

And, of course, he was the guy at the end of regulation. He’s a blast to watch, and the work he’s put in the last few years has been fun to watch pay off. No longer a liability in his own end, and with his offensive game cranked up a few notches, Montour is going to be a major factor against Toronto.

Tenacity on the puck

Only Carolina scored more points off the forecheck this season than Florida, according to Corey Sznjader’s manually tracked data, and the Panthers showed off that element of their game constantly down the stretch against Boston. The series-winning goal, really, says it all. Matthew Tkachuk won a board battle behind Swayman. Sam Bennett dug out the puck. Tkachuk immediately crashed the crease, setting a quick screen in front of Swayman. And Carter Verhaeghe wired one. Good night.

Carter Verhaeghe with the overtime game-winner to send the Florida Panthers into Round 2 pic.twitter.com/5FCSe5BgXV

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) May 1, 2023

That, in plenty of important ways, is perfect hockey. And it’s what the Panthers have come to do better than just about anybody. Tkachuk and Bennett in particular are absolute menaces. In 21:34 with Verhaeghe against Boston, Florida outscored the Bruins 3-0, controlled more than 76 percent of the expected goals and won the high-danger chance battle 9-2. That’s a problem for whoever has to deal with it.

And overall, that’s another bit of credit worth extending to Maurice, who overhauled the rush-based attack that won Florida a ton of games in 2021-22 and helped them get swept out of the playoffs by Tampa Bay. Florida’s five-on-five game was pretty strong all season, and they only really started reaping the benefits in the last month or so.

Carter Verhaeghe of the @FlaPanthers had a really interesting quote after Game 7 about the @NHLBruins:

“They had a crazy regular season. But the playoffs are completely different. I mean, we had a crazy regular season last year and it really didn’t amount to anything." (1/2)

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) May 1, 2023

Aleksander Barkov’s dirty work

On one hand, most teams would like more from their franchise center than one goal in a seven-game series. That’s fair. But undue focus on that number does a disservice to Barkov’s work overall. He ate brutal minutes against the Bruins’ best players, particularly against Brad Marchand, and helped Florida stay relatively close to a five-on-five draw overall. It wasn’t perfect, but it helped open things up down the lineup, avoid disaster and keep things manageable. In Games 5-7, Florida outscored Boston 3-2 with Barkov on the ice.

Some fortuitous luck

No team has ever won anything without it, and no team should ever have to apologize for it, but it’s also always worth noting. What happens, for example, if Patrice Bergeron doesn’t block a shot directly to Montour moments before the game-tying goal? We’re having a different conversation. But when those things happen in concert with a team playing hard, effective hockey — and that’s what Florida did, finishing the series above 50 percent in actual and expected goals — the result is probably going to be positive.

(Photo: Bob DeChiara / USA Today)