Why Oilers’ playoff fate depends on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finding another gear

Apr 23, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (93) controls the puck against the Los Angeles Kings during the first period in game four of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
By Daniel Nugent-Bowman
May 4, 2023

LAS VEGAS — There is no time like the present for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to find some of his magic that has been so prevalent over the last year.

Leon Draisaitl has put the Oilers on his back by recording 11 goals and 15 points. Connor McDavid isn’t far behind him when it comes to overall production. Zach Hyman and Evander Kane might have another level to reach offensively, but they’ve chipped in some huge goals — specifically in the Game 4 comeback over the Kings.

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However, Nugent-Hopkins, who set personal bests with 37 goals, 67 assists, and 104 points this campaign, has been stuck in neutral.

He’s yet to find the back of the net on his 12 shots and has just four assists through seven games. And that’s with Edmonton’s power play, on which he’s featured prominently, looking unstoppable by scoring on 11 of its 19 opportunities.

“I felt good last night (in Game 1),” he said. “You want to be able to produce and be an effective player in whatever aspect of the game you can be when it comes to playoffs.

“I’ve got to shoot the puck a bit more and try to create a little more, personally.”

Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft has repeatedly referenced Nugent-Hopkins’ contributions on the Oilers’ long playoff run a year ago as being not only vitally important to the team’s success, but as a springboard for the forward’s career season in 2022-23.

Nugent-Hopkins had six goals and 14 points in 16 games last postseason. He was overshadowed by McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s sheer brilliance — a common occurrence in recent years — and even Kane pumping in 13 goals.

But RNH showed up, too, especially in big moments. His tally in Game 4 of the Calgary series came minutes after Mike Smith’s long-range goal against and stood as the winner, giving the Oilers a 3-1 series lead.

We haven’t seen Nugent-Hopkins come close to putting his stamp on a game yet. He has just one assist at five-on-five.

“Ryan is working and endeavouring to be an important piece of our lineup on a night-in and night-out basis,” Woodcroft said. “I don’t fault his effort, his attention to detail, or anything like that.

“It hasn’t gone in for him in these playoffs through seven games at the rate it went in for him during the regular season. But you would be remiss if you just measured his contribution solely in offensive production.”

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Woodcroft is correct there. Nugent-Hopkins’ impact on the Oilers isn’t determined through goals and assists only.

No forward received more short-handed ice time than Nugent-Hopkins during the regular season. His defensive acumen matters away from the penalty kill, too.

“When things are slowing down offensively, you’ve got to be able to take care of things on the defensive side,” Nugent-Hopkins said.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Alec Martinez. (Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)

The coaching staff has shown confidence in Nugent-Hopkins to put him on the wing to complement McDavid or Draisaitl (or Nick Bjugstad at the end of Round 1) or at centre at times to drive his own line. That was most evident when he centred Mattias Janmark and Klim Kostin for a stretch midway through the season.

But there’s an issue. Nugent-Hopkins hasn’t been particularly effective in the playoffs in any of those capacities.

He hasn’t played centre aside from the occasional shift. He sports a 44.6 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five, which puts him third from the bottom among all Oilers. The Oilers have been outscored 4-2 with him on the ice in that capacity.

The Oilers’ penalty kill has been a weak spot. The PK has surrendered nine goals against on 25 chances. Nugent-Hopkins, who has continued to play the most among forwards at 13 minutes, has been on for three of those goals.

Things haven’t exactly been great on either side of the puck in these playoffs.

“I’ve tried to round out my game as my career’s gone on here to be a 200-foot player and be able to contribute in different areas of the game,” Nugent-Hopkins said. “When I say that, I still want to be able to help out on the offensive side of things. Sometimes, you need an extra goal. I’ve got to find a way to contribute to that, too.

“But you definitely have to touch different parts of the game and be an effective player one way or another.”

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Simply put, the Oilers are going to need more from Nugent-Hopkins to knock off the Golden Knights in this series let alone go an extra round than they did last spring and reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Nugent-Hopkins may not have been as amazing as McDavid or Draisaitl. He may not have found the back of the net at the same rate as Kane. But the Oilers don’t beat the Kings and Flames – particularly the latter – without him.

They need that two-way game and timely scoring, which was so evident then and during the regular season, to start showing itself now more than ever.

“We won the first series and that’s what the goal is,” Nugent-Hopkins said. “I’m going to keep pushing forward here and try to contribute any way I can.”

(Top photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

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Daniel Nugent-Bowman

Daniel Nugent-Bowman is a staff writer who covers the Edmonton Oilers for The Athletic. Daniel has written about hockey for Sportsnet, The Hockey News, Yahoo Canada Sports and the Saskatoon StarPhoenix. Follow Daniel on Twitter @DNBsports