The flashy work of the offseason is mostly done. Atlanta has added players through free agency, trades and now the NFL Draft. The Falcons who take the field this fall will look much different from the team that finished last season 7-10. It’s time for the new-look birds to get to work, starting with rookie minicamp, which begins Friday.
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Before that, though, we opened the mailbag for your questions about what all these additions mean and what we expect the Falcons to be in 2023.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for brevity and clarity.
In the post-Round 1 press conference, Arthur Smith mentioned how last year they ran the ball a lot more than in 2021. He then said he was looking for a happy medium this year. Do you believe him? From what I’ve seen of him, he isn’t really a guy who lies but instead will just not answer your question or will give a vague answer that doesn’t really answer your question.
If yes or no, why? What do you think will determine how much we run the ball? I’d love for Bijan Robinson to get his touches, but I’d like it if Kyle Pitts and Drake London could put up great numbers, too. I just want to know what the offense will look like because picking Bijan has given me high expectations.
How good do you think the offense will be with Bijan? Will it be elite? — Michael G.
Let’s start with the main issue in Michael’s question. I have been complimentary of Atlanta’s offense. People a lot smarter than me have been very complimentary of Atlanta’s offense. But let’s not get it twisted — this has not been a great offense. At times, it hasn’t even been good.
The Falcons are 24th in the league the past two seasons in points per game (18.56), 22nd in points per drive (1.83), 22nd in yards per play (5.25) and 20th in offensive EPA per game (.03), according to TruMedia. Atlanta needs to be better on offense, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t be.
Lots of stuff in here, including Tashard Choice talking about how Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are similar… and not. The former Georgia Tech standout coached both in college.https://t.co/kr3qApKXJQ
— Josh Kendall (@JoshTheAthletic) May 4, 2023
The Falcons have the quarterback of their choosing (whatever you think of that decision), one of the best young wide receivers in the league, one of the best young tight ends in the league and now, presumably, one (or two) of the best young running backs in the league with the addition of Robinson to a backfield that already included Tyler Allgeier, who set the franchise’s rookie rushing record last season.
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Elite is a lot to ask considering the Falcons’ starting point, but getting into the top half of the league in every significant offensive category is realistic and certainly not too much to ask.
Your take on Smith is right. I’m not aware of him ever lying to the media, but he’d rather give us a kidney than a detailed answer about his offensive plans. Atlanta will probably throw the ball more than it did in the last two years, but that’s a low bar.
What have the Falcons seen that makes them so high on Desmond Ridder as a starting quarterback, and why was there no urgency to upgrade at quarterback? — Louis B.
The two things the Falcons always fall back on when talking about Ridder are their initial scouting report (can make all the throws well enough; has a great mental “makeup”) and how he performed in pressure spots in the four games he played in last year. My sense is they believe Ridder can be as good as any of the second-tier guys in the league, and they haven’t seen a sensible path to getting a player they think can be a first-tier guy.
GO DEEPER
Falcons are about to find out if they chose wisely with Desmond Ridder
This is very much a generalization, but if we assume that 20 percent of the quarterbacks in the league are difference-makers and another 20 percent are not good (which is fair), then that leaves 60 percent of the league playing with a guy who is good enough in the right circumstances. You can waste a lot of time and energy trying to get a guy you think is in that first 20 percent, and teams such as the Falcons are probably thinking about getting off that train and seeing what they can do with a guy in the 60 percent.
Bijan will be a star, but why the seeming aversion to UGA players? Up the road, the Falcons have a literal farm system if they choose yet never pick those guys. I’m of the belief that college recruiting rankings and evaluations are much better than in years past. The Eagles are exploiting an obvious advantage in scouting to great success. Common sense. — Mykhal N.
Do other fan bases get so upset when their professional sports teams don’t draft players from a nearby university or just Atlanta’s? — Matt L.
Lumping these questions together for obvious reasons. Atlanta’s current regime (or any other regime, for that matter) probably doesn’t have anything against Georgia players. The Falcons’ decision on Jalen Carter was player-specific, and Atlanta took Bulldogs Justin Shaffer and John FitzPatrick last season.
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As for whether this is an issue anywhere else, I put that question to our office NFL Slack channel and was surprised to get three almost immediate responses. Apparently, New Orleans not taking LSU guys, Green Bay passing on Wisconsin kids and Chicago not drafting an Iowa player since 1990 are all hot topics in those areas.
How many prime-time games do you expect the Falcons to have? I’d like more, but it seems hard to fathom more than one “Thursday Night Football” plus maybe an international game. — Josh G.
Why cap your goals at “Thursday Night Football”? Why not “Monday Night Football”? The Falcons haven’t played in the week’s premier game since Week 4 of the 2020 season, but this team has a chance. It has some name recognition, and it should score a lot of points. That being said, I can’t predict how many times, if any, Atlanta will play in prime time. Schedule-makers may want to see some proof of concept this year before giving the Falcons that stage.
Thinking about Caleb Huntley and his status with the team, is he the odd man out? Or will he be on the 53? Played his butt off and was a fan favorite. — Allen D.
More important than being a fan favorite, Huntley is an Arthur Smith favorite. I’ll be shocked if Huntley is not in the building when the season starts, but it probably won’t be on the 53-man roster. He suffered an Achilles injury in the last quarter of last season. There’s no guarantee he’ll be healthy enough to play at any point this season, much less early. So you can expect him to start the season on injured reserve, and you can expect Smith to randomly say something nice about him about once a month.
Are there some wide receivers we can realistically add? — Jeremy J.
Do you think the Falcons might make a move for Curtis Samuel? Looks like he would save the Commanders close to $10 million on a trade. — Andrew B.
As much as it pains me to say this: Let’s do some math. The Falcons were next to last in the NFL last season with 415 pass attempts. Smith said he wants to be “more balanced” in 2023. The Steelers were 16th in the league last season with 571 attempts. I’m not sure Atlanta adds 150 passing attempts (Smith said “more balanced” not “balanced,” after all) but let’s say it gets to 525 attempts next season.
London had 117 targets last season. Pitts had 110 targets in 2021 (the only season he played all 17 games). The Falcons’ top two running backs received 127 targets in 2021 and 48 in 2022. Let’s sort of average that number and throw in that the Falcons just added Robinson to the backfield and guess they will target a running back 80 times this year. Based on the last two years, you can probably figure about 75 targets for the Falcons’ No. 2 wide receiver, which will be Mack Hollins this year.
Those rough numbers get us to around 370 targets. That would leave 155 to go around. I expect new tight end Jonnu Smith to eat up 50 or so of those. That leaves only about 100 targets. How much does Atlanta want to spend to get a player for those targets?
Washington could save big by trading Samuel after June 1, and if Atlanta could get him for a fourth-round-or-later pick in 2024, maybe, but I’d be more inclined to think it signs one of the veterans still available on the market to a cheap, one-year deal.
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Jarvis Landry caught only 25 passes last season in New Orleans, but if he’s healthy, he could be a good short-term addition. N’Keal Harry got only nine targets last year, but he’s still 6-foot-4 and fast. (He would also fill the Falcons’ monthly quota for adding former Bears.) Sammy Watkins is aging but averaged 12 yards a target last year. This is the kind of market the Falcons are likely shopping in now.
How’s our D-line looking after the draft and the early stage of free agency? Seems like it’ll still be a weakness, but looking for a reason to be optimistic. — Nathaniel W.
Will the Falcons still try to add to the defensive line via free agency? Someone like a Jadeveon Clowney, Frank Clark or Yannick Ngakoue? Or perhaps a Za’Darius Smith? — Reggie W.
At this point, probably not. I just don’t know that there are enough snaps left to justify either the expenditure or bringing someone the staff does not know well into the locker room. In terms of edge players, they have Calais Campbell, Lorenzo Carter, Bud Dupree, Arnold Ebiketie, Ade Ogundeji, DeAngelo Malone and the new guy Zach Harrison. In the middle, they have Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Ta’Quon Graham and maybe Eddie Goldman, Timmy Horne and a few others. It’s a wild thing to say, but the Falcons might have enough defensive linemen.
If you were going to get a new Falcons jersey, which player would you get and why? — Matthew L.
Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith had a funny back-and-forth on this subject during one of the draft weekend news conferences. Fontenot was talking about his son, Kaiden, and his jerseys and listed a bunch of the team’s skill-position players. Smith teased him about not buying Kaiden a Chris Lindstrom or David Onyemata jersey and said he was going to get his son Liam a Lindstrom.
I would always support a Lindstrom jersey because he’s a good player who does some great work in the community, but my official answer is Pitts. For starters, the No. 8 is a clean look. Also, if you go into this season saying you still believe Pitts is going to be a star, that bet should pay out at the end of the year.
As a lifelong Falcons fan, I understand what I have gotten myself into. I consider myself a die-hard fan. Generally speaking, how would you rate the Falcons fan base? Are we an overall (rightfully) bitter bunch? Cynical? Not very caring? Meh? — Timothy H.
I added Timothy’s question because a little self-reflection is healthy for all of us. I have two main theories of fandom. No. 1: It should be fun. If your team is taking more away from your life than adding to it, it’s time to consider an outdoor hobby. No. 2: Paying fans have the right to respectfully express their opinions on the team’s performance. I don’t think all Atlanta fans are adhering to both rules, but most are. Falcons fans get a bad rap because they are often outnumbered by opposing fans in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but if not showing up until the team is better is how they express their opinion, I’ve got their back on that. In the words of a great Georgian, the Falcons have torn out their fans’ “heart and stomped that sucker flat” more than once. That leaves some scars. I get it. But if we’re circling back to rule No. 1, if the scars are all you get out of the experience, you’re doing it wrong.
GO DEEPER
Meet Vinny, the Falcons superfan Rich Eisen called 'the best moment of the draft'
How many touchdowns are you thinking for Cordarrelle Patterson this year? I’m thinking seven or more. The Falcons are going to use some cool packages this year. Chances we see Desmond Ridder, CP, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier all in one backfield, then split someone out wide? — Conner M.
Conner hits on an interesting nugget here: The Falcons are likely going to be a fantasy football nightmare again this year. For starters, they have more weapons, which means fewer targets/touches for everyone. More specifically, Patterson’s role this year is probably going to be light on carries overall but heavy around the goal line because he just has a knack in the low red zone. So, it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll get more than seven touchdowns, which takes them away from London, Pitts and Allgeier.
As for a wishbone backfield with all of those guys in it, I don’t expect to see that. It just feels too “cutesy” for Smith.
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How has Arthur Blank’s day-to-day role as an owner evolved since the Dan Quinn-Thomas Dimitroff regime? And did the Super Bowl LI debacle and these past five losing seasons somewhat mellow his expectations or is he, at 80, still as sincere and intense about winning a championship as a decade ago? — Randall P.
The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz explained this nicely here, and I don’t think anyone in the organization disagreed with the overall sentiment of his column.
(Top photo of Drake London: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
