For a few brief days, it looked like we might get a week off from having to pony up a large chunk of FAB for a prospect getting called up, but the Marlins had other plans for us. On Wednesday, they announced that they would be promoting Eury Pérez from Double-A Pensacola and that he would be making his major league debut on Friday against the Reds. Pérez is widely considered to be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball, and his 2.32 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 35.9 percent strikeout rate at Pensacola this season has done nothing to hurt that status.
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With Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto both out indefinitely with biceps injuries, Pérez should not be in any danger of an imminent demotion. Not only can we count on the 20-year-old to start next week, but he gets a favorable home matchup with the Nationals, who own the majors’ second-lowest team ISO (.105).
This is not a one-and-done situation for fantasy managers. We should plan on rostering Pérez for the long haul, so an aggressive bid is warranted. That means committing at least 15 percent of your total FAB budget in 12-team leagues and 25 percent in 15-team leagues. Particularly with Ricky Tiedemann currently dealing with biceps inflammation and Kyle Harrison struggling with control at Triple-A Sacramento, Pérez could present your last opportunity to give yourself a major pitching upgrade for awhile.
Not everyone can have Pérez on their roster, so you’ll need to have your rotation upgrade Plan B ready for this weekend’s bidding. In 10- or 12-team leagues, that contingency plan should begin with Logan Allen, if he is available. Given that the Guardians’ lefty (and not the Rockies lefty with the same name who is friends with John Cena) is rostered in just 65 percent of CBS leagues, 42 percent of Yahoo leagues and 16 percent of ESPN leagues, there’s a good chance you can still add him. You may even be able to get Allen at a discount now that the initial hype from his promotion two-and-a-half weeks ago has faded.
There are some much-further-below-the-radar pitchers to think about, too. While it’s not a week for bidding on hitting prospects (unless you want to gamble on Casey Schmitt sticking on the Giants’ roster), there are a number of position players worth your attention as well.
Lourdes Gurriel, OF, Diamondbacks: It’s still early enough in the season that an eight-day stretch can make an enormous difference in a player’s stats. On May 2, Gurriel appeared mired in the power drought that plagued him all last season, having posted a .265/.303/.382 line and an 84 wRC+ through his first 109 plate appearances. After going 1 for 3 with a double and a walk against the Marlins on Wednesday, Gurriel’s line now stands at .306/.366/.512, and his wRC+ has soared to 136. In a three-game stretch in the midst of this recent hot streak, Gurriel bashed four homers, raising his season total to five. Such a limited span of plate appearances might be worth ignoring in some circumstances, but now that Gurriel is on a pace that fits in with his best years with the Blue Jays, it puts last season’s milder production in perspective. He finished with only five home runs and a 3.8 percent barrel rate, but Gurriel hadn’t actually become a ground ball hitter (44.6 percent rate) or a thump-less wonder (93.3 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives). He’s back to being relevant in 12-team leagues and, despite last season’s numbers, had never really stopped.
Bidding: 2-to-3 percent of total FAB budget in 12-team leagues.
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Ezequiel Duran, 3B/SS/OF, Rangers: Filling in for Corey Seager (hamstring), Duran has enjoyed a power breakout, clubbing four homers in 100 plate appearances while averaging 95.2 mph in exit velocity on flies and liners (EV FB/LD). While his 94th percentile sprint speed has resulted in only two stolen bases, it has likely played a role in Duran batting .314 on grounders and .305 overall. The biggest concern about adding Duran at this point is whether he will play much once Seager returns, possibly as soon as next week. Bruce Bochy recently expressed confidence in playing Duran all over the field, including in all three outfield spots. He has walked just once, so Duran is not the best choice for points leagues, but in Roto and category formats, it’s time to add him in 12-and 14-team leagues with deeper rosters.
Bidding: 0-to-1 percent in 12-team leagues.
Christopher Morel, 2B/OF, Cubs: We knew from his rookie season that Morel had some pop in his bat, as he emerged with 16 home runs in 425 plate appearances. Morel has spent almost all of 2023 with Triple-A Iowa, and with 11 home runs in 134 plate appearances, he may have hit another gear. In his first two games back with the Cubs, having already produced a home run, a double and five batted balls (out of a total of six) with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph, Morel’s Triple-A stats hardly look fluky. We will have the weekend to see how Morel’s playing time shakes out before figuring out our bids. Since the Cubs will face a trio of Twins righty starters, it’s a good test to see if Morel will be limited to the lesser side of a platoon. If he plays all three games (especially if Nico Hoerner is back from his strained hamstring), it’s time to at least consider adding him in 12-team leagues.
Bidding: 0-to-1 percent in 12-team leagues, 5-to-6 percent in 15-team leagues (contingent upon playing time).
Jesús Sánchez, OF, Marlins: Over the latter quarter of the 2021 schedule, Sánchez appeared to have broken out, having batted .245 with 11 home runs in 157 plate appearances once he ended a month-long stint on the COVID IL. Sánchez continued to make hard contact in 2022 (95.3 mph EV FB/LD), but his production suffered (.214/.280/.403). With a 96.8 mph EV FB/LD, Sánchez is hitting the ball even harder this season, and while there is no way he can sustain a 37.8 percent line drive rate or .405 BABIP, at least for now, he is completely locked in. Sánchez’ lack of playing time against lefties gives him limited appeal in 12-team leagues, and a hamstring injury sustained in Wednesday’s game in Arizona could render him unworthy of a bid this weekend if his condition doesn’t improve. However, if Sánchez is well by the end of the weekend, he needs to be rostered in all 15-team leagues.
Bidding: 4-to-5 percent in 15-team leagues (contigent upon health).
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JJ Bleday, OF, Athletics: There’s a theme developing here, as Bleday is yet another hitter who appears to have taken a step forward in his power production. It’s not as if he was devoid of power in his final year in the Marlins’ system, connecting for 20 homers and a .242 ISO at Triple-A Jacksonville before flailing through a 65-game major league debut (.167/.277/.309). On the other side of getting traded for A.J. Puk, Bleday put up a .327 ISO with Triple-A Las Vegas. More dramatic was his improvement in strikeout rate, from 27.0 percent at Jacksonville to 12.6 percent at Las Vegas, the latter of which contributed to a .316 batting average. So far, those trends have held up with the A’s, as Bleday has homered three times in 31 plate appearances while striking out just five times. He’s on the bigger side of a platoon and doesn’t figure to get driven in much, but he is still worth a shot in 15-team leagues.
Bidding: 2-to-3 percent in 15-team leagues.
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Yankees: Bauers’ time in the lineup may come to an end in the next few weeks when Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are expected to return from hamstring injuries, but for now, he could offer some power and run production. Just like Morel, Sánchez and Bleday, Bauers has been hitting for power like never before, homering nine times in 87 plate appearances for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and then achieving an exit velocity of at least 105 mph on four of his eight batted balls with the Yankees and having only one batted ball below 94 mph.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 15-team leagues.
Matthew Boyd, SP/RP, Tigers: Boyd started his season flat after a spectacular spring training performance, racking up seven strikeouts and issuing seven walks over nine innings of work against the Astros and Red Sox. Since then, Boyd has put up some eye-popping numbers, most notably a 15.1 percent SwStr% and a 75.2 percent Z-Contact%. Because he also yielded five home runs over those 21.2 innings, Boyd still has an unsightly 5.82 ERA for that span. We shouldn’t expect that home runs will continue to be a problem for Boyd, as he allowed just a 91.3 mph EV FB/LD over those starts. Boyd’s upcoming matchups work in his favor, too, as he will start at Washington next week and at Kansas City the week after that.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 12-team H2H leagues, 5-to-6 percent in 15-team leagues.
Josiah Gray, SP, Nationals: Gray is a little too low on strikeouts and a little too high on walks to be worth keeping for the long-term in 12-team leagues, but he is a good streaming option for the week ahead. He has a great two-start schedule, starting with the Marlins in Miami and finishing with a home start against the Tigers. Gray’s strong propensity to give up homers would have precluded him as a streaming option in the past, but he appears to have left that issue behind. Since his second start of the season, Gray has a 4.3 percent barrel rate and only two home runs allowed in 40.2 innings.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 12-team leagues.
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Michael Soroka, SP, Braves: The Athletic’s David O’Brien hinted that Soroka could start this Sunday in Toronto, but given that he started for Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday night, we will apparently have to wait a little longer for his return. If Soroka is destined to get called up next week, he could take the mound against the Rangers or Mariners. Whenever Soroka’s next start with the Braves is, it will be his first since Aug. 3, 2020, when he tore his right Achilles tendon in an outing against the Mets. He has averaged just a 9.5 percent SwStr% through his first five starts with Triple-A Gwinnett this season, but the key to Soroka’s success has been more about inducing ground balls and weak contact in general than about missing bats. At least for the time being, consider Soroka to be more of an option for 15-team leagues.
Bidding: 2-to-3 percent in 15-team leagues.
James Paxton, SP, Red Sox: While Soroka’s status is uncertain as of this writing, we know for certain that Paxton will be making his return to the majors after missing all of 2022 and nearly all of 2021. Paxton will make his Red Sox debut on Friday against the Cardinals, having tossed 21.2 innings for Triple-A Worcester. The good news is that Paxton struck out 26 batters and allowed only two home runs over those innings. The discouraging news is that he issued 16 walks. Until we can see Paxton pitch against the Cardinals, it’s hard to know if we should start him next week, as he will either draw a start at home against the Mariners or on the road against the Padres. Either way, he’s worth a stash in 15-team leagues.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 15-team leagues.
J.P. France, SP, Astros: With Luis Garcia set to have Tommy John surgery and Lance McCullers (elbow) and José Urquidy (shoulder) being several weeks away from returning, France’s spot in the Astros’ rotation would seem to be secure. His strong debut against the Mariners last Saturday only helped his cause, and he will start again on Friday in Chicago against the White Sox. France has had success in each of his three seasons at Triple-A Sugar Land, but he’s done it in the latter half of his 20s. Also, due to high walk and home run rates, he posted xFIPs above 5.00 in each of his first two seasons there. To his credit, France recorded a 31.8 percent CSW% against the Mariners, and he didn’t get barreled, but he got chases on out-of-zone pitches at just a 20.5 percent rate. As of now, I’d lean toward sitting France against the Cubs, but I would rather stash him now in 15-team leagues than try to add him later if his next couple of starts are good ones.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 15-team leagues.
Gregory Soto, RP, Phillies: With José Alvarado on the IL with left elbow inflammation, the Phillies are going to look to Soto and Craig Kimbrel for saves. Kimbrel has already notched three saves, while Soto has none, but between his penchant for walks (15.0 percent rate) and tendency to allow hard contact (96.6 mph EV FB/LD), he also has the better chance for repeated meltdowns. Soto has had his issues with walks, too (14.5 percent), but his 87.9 mph EV FB/LD puts him at the opposite end of the spectrum from Kimbrel as a threat to allow homers. That’s especially important when it comes to their appearances at Citizens Bank Park. I like Soto’s chances to separate himself from Kimbrel and become a long-term primary closer, if Alvardo is out long enough for a competition to actually develop.
Bidding: 1-to-2 percent in 12-team leagues, 5-to-6 percent in 15-team leagues.
Note: Season-to-date stats are for all games played through Wednesday, May 10.
Top photo: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports; Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball Savant.
