Finding the end zone — always bet on talent

There is a saying that I live by in regards to football: “Always bet on talent.”

Talent can best be described thusly: something that many cannot do consistently, but you can. You kind of know it when you see it.  So when you’re faced with a decision for your fantasy team about who to draft, who to start, who to sit and who to trade for (or keep), always remember that talent wins out in the end.

Too often in fantasy football the focus tends to be on myriad things, situations and circumstances that surround the player (bye weeks, playoff matchups, college size, DOT, QB changes, etc). But the one thing that normally gets lost in the minutiae is how talented the player is.

Do you think the Buccaneers — and subsequently the Raiders — cared that Bo Jackson came out of a triple-option offense at Auburn? Do you think Bill Walsh cared that Jerry Rice came from a tiny school located in northwestern Mississippi in a place named Itta Bena? Do you think the Falcons cared that Michael Vick threw only eight touchdown passes to six interceptions as a redshirt sophomore?

No!

Remember, talent supersedes system, situation, scenario and scheme.

Let’s break that down even further, then get into some talented players for 2018 who aren’t quite the fantasy darlings that they should be.

• The best players usually play: At the end of the day, the head coach’s job is tied directly to his ability to win. For that to happen, the coach will generally put his best players on the field. Let’s use two reserve RBs from the 2017 season as an example: the Bears’ Tarik Cohen and the Saints’ Alvin Kamara.

My pre-draft take on Cohen (FBGP Scouting No. 5 RB in the 2017 NFL Draft) was that he’s as explosive sideways as he is straight ahead, you can’t hit what you can’t catch and you can’t hurt what you can’t touch. Nothing about what he did with the football had anything to do with him playing at North Carolina A&T or his 5-foot-6, 185-pound frame. I compared his game to that of Darren Sproles, and he was going to produce for whichever team he ended up on.

For Kamara, I had a “Solid NFL Starter” grade on him because of his multifaceted skill set. I knew it didn’t matter how he was used; he was going to be very productive regardless. Where I missed in my pre-draft evaluation was how productive he was going to be and how consistent he would be as an NFL player.

Both guys were behind well-entrenched starters, yet their unique talent and skill set yielded them more opportunities to see the field, and both delivered for their teams.

• The best players command usage: We’re going to use both Kamara and Cohen once again as examples, because they had solid starters in front of them and fantasy players were worried about how they were going to be utilized — or at least how much they were going to be utilized. It didn’t take long for them to flash their potential in limited opportunities, making the coach realize they needed to see more opportunities with the ball. This is why you started to see them more in the passing game, in addition to getting traditional carries as tailbacks. Their talents created, in some cases, new opportunities for them to make an impact.
• The best players find production: We’ll use Chiefs star wide receiver Tyreek Hill as an example. As a rookie in 2016, Hill started as a reserve receiver and the No. 1 kickoff and punt returner. His ability to flash and produce in his return duties earned him more opportunities within the regular offense.

While he was still learning the nuances of playing WR — Hill bounced between RB and WR in college — he saw time in the backfield on end-arounds and direct handoffs, situations in which he produced. By the middle of the season, he’d earned more opportunities to play regularly as a receiver. Hill finished the 2016 campaign with 860 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns.

No matter Hill’s situation, he was productive in many different ways, and that’s eventually going to lead to fantasy success.

• The best players find the end zone: Football is an easy game. Value can be broken down in two ways:

1. Can you score?
2. Can you take the ball away?

From a fantasy football perspective, this rings true as well. Points add up, and the last time I checked, touchdowns get you points. Players with that elite talent always seem to find the end zone. That’s what makes them special, that’s what makes them highly coveted, and that’s what you should not ignore on draft day. Look at the top five, or even top 10 touchdown leaders in the following categories that are important to fantasy football: Passing, Rushing and Receiving. You notice a trend, right? They are littered with some of the top players in the league.

It may sound like basic advice to target the touchdown scorers, but we fantasy players sometimes get caught up in the deeper stats and ignore the simple question: who is getting in the end zone?

So now that we have some strategy, who can we apply this to in 2018? How about …

Jarvis Landry will be the focal point of the Cleveland Browns offense this season. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) 

1. WR Jarvis Landry, Browns

A lot has been made about the depth of his targets or the fact that he doesn’t have “blazing speed” to be considered a true “threat.” All of those are false narratives.

What makes you a deep threat isn’t speed — although it’s a nice asset to have. It’s your ability to track the ball, and great hands, both of which Landry has.  What also gets underrated about Landry’s game is that he’s a great route runner, which means he’ll get open quicker, thus being a readily available target for any QB. And he is durable (Landry has played all 16 games in each of his four seasons), which means you don’t have to worry about him getting nicked up or missing time. Landry is also a versatile receiver, having the ability to line up in many different positions and being productive

2. RB Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

For some reason, a lot of folks subscribe to the notion that you shouldn’t take a RB high in the NFL Draft, with seemingly just as many thinking that Penny won’t be the starter in Seattle. Both of which are major falsehoods.

You don’t just take any running back high in the draft — you have to be a gamebreaker, and that’s what Penny is. Penny’s draft status (he was taken No. 27 overall) tells you that he’ll be the opening-day starter for the Seahawks. But, for the sake of a baseless argument, let’s say he doesn’t start at RB but is instead the starting kickoff returner. Because of his ability to hit the home run, he’s going to have a lot of success there, which will ultimately lead to him being used regularly as the starting tailback. Why? Because any football coach worth his salt will want the guy that has the potential to score on any given play to be on the field consistently. That’s quintessential “betting on talent.”

3. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

 There’s a lot of excitement in Kansas City as the bazooka-armed QB out of Texas Tech takes over for Alex Smith, although many fantasy players believe that Mahomes won’t be a fantasy star this season (Mahomes is the No. 16 QB, according to FantasyPros.com). I can understand this point a little bit, but not much. Mahomes’ talent is in his ability to out-throw coverage and to accurately hit targets deep downfield. You combine his skill set with explosive speed in Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins, along with a matchup problem at TE in Travis Kelce — who can get deep down the seam with ease — and you can see this offense looking a lot like the Red Raiders offense Mahomes played in during his college career.

Mahomes has the potential to throw for more than 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns this year because of his ability as a deep passer. And when I’m talking about deep, I’m talking about over-20-yard pass plays. You have players in Hill and Watkins who can easily get past a defender on a takeoff or deep over route and there’s no zone or area of the field that’s out of range for Mahomes to hit in stride.

4. RB Nyheim Hines, Colts

Think Alvin Kamara. Think Tarik Cohen. Hines has a versatile skill set, having started at WR and RB during his time at North Carolina State. He also starred on the Wolfpack track team. Talent is hard to keep off the field because it consistently shows itself at practice. Hines will have an impact on the Colts’ offense similar to those of Kamara and Cohen. You’ll hear a lot about Marlon Mack and the number of carries he’ll get as limiting Hines’ opportunities, but remember this: when you’re a gamebreaker, you don’t need a lot of touches to generate points. The good part is that when you do, coaches and fans notice it and you’ll start to get more opportunities to showcase that on game day.

Remember, football is an easy game. Fantasy football is even easier. Don’t overthink the simplistic. Don’t gamble on formulas. Don’t pour your milk in the bowl before your cereal. Don’t construct a fantasy team based solely on bye weeks and situations. If you draft talented players who know how to put the ball in the end zone, your team will eventually be met with success.

The only thing you must do?

Always bet on talent.

(Top photo: Anda Chu/Getty Images)