Matt Murray’s Maple Leafs future: Three paths to explore for the goalie this offseason

It’s very likely that Matt Murray has already played his last game as a Maple Leaf, that 26 starts will be all the franchise gets from last summer’s trade with Ottawa.

An exit of some kind feels likelier than not this offseason, one among many tasks facing new GM Brad Treliving.

Murray wasn’t a total disaster last season. He gave up 74 goals in all. He was expected to give up 72. The average NHL save percentage was .904. Murray finished at .903.

It was far from a great performance obviously, nowhere near what then-Leafs GM Kyle Dubas hoped for when he swung boldly for Murray last July. Murray, the two-time Stanley Cup champ, was supposed to own the Leafs’ crease in the playoffs.

Instead, he didn’t play a second in the postseason. Not even when Ilya Samsonov got hurt and Murray was healthy. The Leafs trusted Joseph Woll, he of 11 regular-season NHL starts, more with their season on the line.

Murray’s biggest issue continued to be health. He missed 14 games with an adductor injury, 13 games with an ankle injury, and the final six games of the regular season (and most of the playoffs) with a concussion.

The injury issues, the average-ish performance — none of it adds up to a goalie worth $4.68 million on the cap. Not for a team like the Leafs, with championship aspirations and two goalies on the apparent rise.

Because Murray was cleared to return from a concussion in the playoffs, stuffing him on long-term injured reserve wouldn’t appear to be an option.

What can the Leafs do with the 29-year-old who has one year left on his contract? Let’s explore the three paths — two likely, one not so much.

1. Buy him out

First, the costs of a buyout, which the Leafs could choose to execute once the buyout window opens not long after the Stanley Cup Final comes to an end:

It’s that second year, clearly, that’s most problematic.

Yes, the cap is expected to rise a fair bit by the 2024-25 season. Buying out Murray though would eat into that increase, robbing the Leafs of $2 million to play with at a time when new contracts for Auston Matthews and (maybe) William Nylander will kick in, TJ Brodie will need replacing, and Timothy Liljegren will be due a pricier deal. Who knows what the Leafs will be paying Samsonov, due a new contract this summer.

Every little bit counts.

That $2 million could simply account for the increase on Matthews’ next contract — from $11.64 million on the cap to whatever league-leading figure comes next. It might buy the Leafs a helpful third-liner or fifth defenceman.

If there’s appeal to the buyout route, it’s this: The only asset going out the door is cap space. Not great obviously in a hard cap world. However, the Leafs wouldn’t have to part with what could be a prime draft pick in any Murray trade.

The organizational supply of picks is low at the moment, especially the good ones.

So the question for Treliving and company comes down to this: What’s more valuable, the extra cap space, in Year 2 especially, or the draft pick?

That $688,000 in Year 1 isn’t nothing either.

2. Trade him

The Leafs were here last summer when they poofed the last two years of Petr Mrazek’s contract in a trade with Chicago.

The cost was mild: Moving down 13 picks in the 2022 draft — from 25th to 38th.

That would be the play here. Foist the last year of Murray’s deal on some team, likely one that’s rebuilding, for a draft pick of some kind, maybe even another swap.

Of course, it’s not so simple.

For one thing, Murray has a 10-team no-trade clause. The pool of teams that might be interested in bringing him and his contract aboard figures to be small anyway. It might get even smaller if Murray’s veto power comes into play.

Just last summer, the Sabres tried to trade for Murray and were rebuked by Murray.

In short, the Leafs may not have a lot of teams to work with.

Another potential problem on the trade front: Murray is owed $6 million in salary (and another $2 million from the Senators). That’s a lot of cash.

Is it even possible for the Leafs to flip Murray, with a sweetener, and still get something useful in return? The Nick Ritchie contract dump notably netted the team Ilya Lyubushkin for one playoff run.

(John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)

Who might the Leafs go calling in hopes of securing a Murray deal?

Pittsburgh: I mean, this one is almost too perfect isn’t it? Dubas, a true Murray believer, is now running the show in Pittsburgh. The Penguins might need another goalie with Tristan Jarry set to become a free agent. And of course, it was in Pittsburgh that Murray shined brightest, winning those two Cups. It would be rather ironic if Dubas squeezed an asset out of his old team to take on Murray. Or would he just, you know, take him as a favour? (Doubtful.) The Penguins don’t have a second-round pick so simply sliding back from 28th overall (the Leafs’ top pick at the moment) a la Mrazek isn’t an option.

San Jose: The Sharks are rebuilding and need another goalie. Could the Leafs slide back from No. 28 in exchange for the Sharks’ second-round selection? You’d have to think that Murray wouldn’t mind the chance to rebuild his career in NorCal obscurity.

Anaheim: Another California rebuilding project. The Ducks do have John Gibson and his monstrous contract ($6.4 million cap hit) on the books for four more seasons. Adding Murray’s contract would make for a pricey crease. But for a team that’s rebuilding, who really cares? Murray would be a one-year commitment for the prize of a useful asset on Rebuild Road. And hey, if all went well, Ducks GM Pat Verbeek could even flip Murray elsewhere for another asset at the trade deadline. The Ducks have three second-round picks to swap, potentially, for that 28th selection.

Arizona: We just talked about Ritchie. How about Murray? Are the Coyotes and their college arena on his no-trade list? It’s clear the Coyotes are in the we’ll-take-your-bad contracts-for-assets business. Murray could be the backup to Karel Vejmelka for a year. Does Arizona want more picks though?

Chicago: This might be too weird. Mrazek and Murray as next season’s tandem, both contract dumps from the Leafs. Like Arizona, Chicago already has a million picks. Do they really want more? Would a prospect do instead? Is that enough for such a large contract?

Buffalo: We know Sabres GM Kevyn Adams was interested in Murray before. Would Murray reconsider a move to Buffalo? The Sabres are on the upswing, but they don’t exactly need another goalie — though Murray would offer experience.

Can Treliving find a deal? A decent deal that erases one of his predecessor’s bigger mistakes?

3. Keep him

There’s no way, right?

Samsonov is now the clear-cut No. 1 and Woll is poised to hold onto the backup job he snatched when Murray was injured late last season.

Also: Woll needs waivers to go back down to the Marlies. He could be great value on the cap, too, at $767,000.

Keeping Murray would mean either keeping all three goalies or serving Woll, who turns 25 in July, up for some other team to grab.

Not gonna happen right?

The Leafs could bring all three to camp and see how things play out. An injury to Samsonov or Woll and suddenly, Murray might be needed again. If that doesn’t happen, could they try trading him then? Teams do tend to need goalies at that time of year. But that’s dicey business — just hoping maybe someone will want Murray. That’s also, crucially, a huge chunk of cap space to throw away this offseason. The Leafs could simply bury Murray in the minors. That would save them $1.15 million in space, meaning Murray would be chewing up $3.5 million to play for the Marlies.

No bueno.

So yeah, hard to see a path that sees Murray returning.

A trade seems likeliest. Just last summer, Treliving flipped the final year of Sean Monahan’s problematic contract to Montreal at the cost of a first-round pick. He also bought out Troy Brouwer once upon a time.

What’s the move with Murray?

(Top photo: Steve Russell / Toronto Star via Getty Images)

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference