How could NBA’s new CBA affect Knicks this summer and beyond?

Editor’s note: This story was updated to better describe salary-matching rules in the incoming CBA.

The New York Knicks will need a new strategy soon. After all, the rules are about to change.

The NBA and the players’ association agreed this spring on a new collective bargaining agreement, which will kick in July 1 at the start of free agency. The Knicks, along with the rest of the league, will have to tweak their approach to handing out contracts, making trades, valuing draft picks and more.

There is nothing glamorous about long, complicated legal documents, but if you see the Knicks or anyone else do something funky this summer, it may just be because of this agamic CBA.

With the start of free agency only three weeks away, here are six ways the new CBA could affect the Knicks this offseason and beyond:

Matching salaries

All we hear about in Knicksland is the team’s chase for a star. Well, the team is in an even more advantageous position under the new CBA, which will make it more difficult for teams with expensive payrolls to deal not just for star players but for any players at all. Meanwhile, the Knicks are below the luxury-tax line and should remain in that territory for the 2023-24 season.

Some of the new restrictive rules are being phased in, but here is a summary of them:

The NBA is adding a “second apron,” which will be $17.5 million above the luxury-tax threshold and will hurt high-payroll teams on the trade market.

The Knicks, as constructed, could make a hypothetical star trade using players whose salaries come within 125 percent of the salary they’re trading for — referred to as “matching salaries.” But during the 2023-24 season, which begins July 1, teams who are above the second apron can match salaries up to only 110 percent, according to league sources, making any sort of trade far more difficult.

New York, which is not in the tax, won’t have to deal with this. But more expensive teams could be wiped out of the conversation for a star, or even for just a regular old role player because they can’t make the money work.

The rules become even more restrictive once the 2023-24 regular season ends. From that point on, teams above the second apron cannot aggregate players in trades at all, meaning they can deal only one player at a time, and salary-matching rules become as prohibitive as possible. If two teams both above the first apron are making a trade, they can do the swap only with players who make identical salaries, down to the cent. Essentially, starting next summer, the only realistic way a team over either apron can make a trade is if it flips one player who signed a max, midlevel or minimum deal for another player who signed the same contract in the same season.

How often do we see trades like that?

If the Knicks trade for a star, whether it’s this summer or the next one, they will have to maneuver around these measures. If it’s a particularly expensive household name and they manage to hold onto Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett in the process, then they’re talking about the tax or maybe even the second apron, and that’s without considering new salaries for upcoming free agent Josh Hart or up-and-comers Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin, who could be included in a star trade but are also only one year away from free agency.

There was never a good time to part with lots of picks and young players for a star who does not work, but it’s possible, given the punitive tax rules, that it’s more harmful now than ever to give up the kitchen sink for the wrong star. If a team has a player who doesn’t fit and underperforms because of it, then that team has fewer ways to improve around him and could be stuck.

Teams above the second apron are restricted in how they can build out their rosters, too. They lose access to the taxpayer midlevel exception. Essentially, if a team is above the second apron, it can only sign players with minimum contracts or by using Bird rights, which allows organizations to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their players.

Player-friendly extension rules

Extensions for players coming off rookie contracts can now be five years for everyone — not just for designated top prospects, as was the case during the previous CBA — which means Quickley and Toppin will be eligible for five-year deals this summer. The extensions would kick in for the 2024-25 season. Next summer, Quentin Grimes would be eligible for a five-year extension, which would start for the 2025-26 season.

But the young players aren’t the only ones who could benefit. There’s also Hart, an anticipated free agent who isn’t guaranteed to become one, even if Hart returning to New York remains the most likely outcome this summer.

Hart has a unique contract structure: a $13 million player option for the 2023-24 season that becomes non-guaranteed if he picks it up. The assumption all along was that he would go into free agency since he’s worth more than $13 million. But with the new rules, he has another option.

Veterans can now extend for up to 140 percent of their previous season’s salary. That figure used to be 120 percent. It means leading into June 24, the deadline for Hart to pick up or decline his player option, he and the Knicks could negotiate a 2024-25 salary for up to $18.1 million (140 percent of $13 million). If both sides agreed, Hart could pick up the player option, the Knicks could guarantee it and he could then sign an extension, which would begin in 2024-25, worth up to about $81 million over four years.

The extension route would accomplish two things for New York.

First, it would keep Hart around for an extra season — five years instead of the max of four he’d get as a free agent. Second, it would keep his 2023-24 salary down, giving the team a little more financial flexibility in the upcoming season.

The frozen pick

There is one more way the trade market could dampen if a star becomes available.

When a team is above the second apron at the end of the season, then “the frozen pick,” unquestionably the coolest new term to come out of this CBA, comes into play. Here’s what it means: If a team is above the second apron, then its first-round pick seven years into the future cannot be traded.

For example, if a team were above the second apron right now, then that means it can’t trade its 2030 first-rounder.

Since teams cannot go consecutive seasons without first-round picks and since they can trade first-rounders as far as only seven years into the future, this means ones above the second apron can deal as many as three of their first-rounders, while teams below the second apron can trade up to four of their own firsts.

This could give the Knicks another slight advantage on the trade market if they’re bidding against a second-apron team for a player they want.

All-NBA likelihoods

Brunson and Randle, who don’t sit out many games, may be more likely to make All-NBA teams than ever before, which could make Brunson eligible for a lot of dough.

Players must compete in at least 65 games to be eligible for All-NBA teams now. If those rules applied to this season, five of the 15 players who made them would not have been on the ballot, clearing the way for Brunson, who missed it narrowly. Randle has been All-NBA twice in three years.

But let’s concentrate on Brunson because this could affect how much money he makes.

The point guard can become a free agent in 2025. And if he enters the market coming off an All-NBA campaign, he will be supermax eligible — meaning his contract could start at 35 percent of the salary cap instead of 30 percent of it.

In this situation, his starting salary on a max deal would jump from a projected $44.3 million to a projected $51.7 million. A five-year supermax contract in 2025 would make 1990s Wall Street CEOs jealous: $299.9 million.

The games-played initiative isn’t the only new All-NBA rule that’s friendly to Randle and Brunson, who veer away from sitting out games during the age of load management. All-NBA teams also will become positionless, which could help Brunson, since point guard is the deepest position in the league.

For what it’s worth, Randle would not need the supermax provision. By 2025, he’ll already be a 10-year veteran, meaning he’d be automatically eligible for the 35 percent max.

Managing the midlevel

The Knicks are likely to operate as an above-the-cap team this summer, which means they can use the midlevel exception, worth a little more than $12 million in starting salary.

But they, along with the rest of the league, could be less likely to use the midlevel exception to sign someone.

Starting in 2024-25, teams can use the midlevel, if untouched, as a trade exception, according to league sources. That means organizations above the salary cap can use the midlevel exception to sign a player, claim someone on waivers or trade for someone who makes up to $12 million without having to match salaries in that deal. Whether the midlevel can always be used as a trade exception or if it turns into a trade exception after the offseason remains unclear. At this point, the league office is yet to give a final copy of the new CBA to the 30 teams. Instead, it has sent a detailed summary of the changes. But there are still tiny details that front offices are unsure about.

I recently spoke with another league source who predicted that the new rule could hurt the NBA’s middle class. “Unless teams see someone as a clear upgrade, I think they’ll hold (the midlevel),” he said.

Derrick Rose situation

Rose has a $15.6 million team option for next season. Considering he never plays, save for when the Madison Square Garden fans chant loud enough to convince Tom Thibodeau to insert him at the end of games, declining it seems like a no-brainer.

But that’s only on the surface. The Knicks could justify picking up Rose’s lavish team option.

Leading into this past trade deadline, league sources told The Athletic that the Knicks communicated to other teams they were considering picking up Rose’s team option if they felt his salary could help with a swap for a big-time player. Remember, the Knicks have to match salaries in trades, and Rose’s expiring deal along with Evan Fournier’s expiring $18.9 million is enough to land the Knicks a big-time player — as long as they package those guys with draft picks and young talent.

But the new rules give the Knicks another reason to keep Rose if they choose to do it.

At least some of the league’s most-expensive teams (particularly the ones who are concerned about exceeding the second apron in 2024-25, when all those regulations mentioned up top become far more punishing) will try to dump future salaries this upcoming summer. For those organizations, flipping someone with two years remaining on his contract for someone with only one is a victory.

My prediction: expiring contracts will make a comeback. And Rose — who’s at a nice, middling salary — could provide one.

The Knicks could use his money to trade for someone who makes a similar amount as him. They could pair him with Fournier to bring back someone who earns more than $40 million.

It would be unconventional (and if the Knicks picked up Rose’s option, it could signal that they felt good about their chances of dealing him for someone worthwhile) but no one can guarantee the best way to operate in this new environment, because no one has lived through it yet. This is the time to be creative.

(Photo of Josh Hart: Eric Espada / Getty Images)