Cubs gambling Jon Lester, Cole Hamels have enough left for another playoff run

CHICAGO, IL - AUGUST 05:  Starting pitcher Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs delivers the ball against the San Diego Padres at Wrigley Field on August 5, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
By Patrick Mooney
Aug 6, 2018

What year is this? A rotation fronted by Jon Lester and Cole Hamels would have sounded like the beginning of a dream team back when Joe Maddon managed the Tampa Bay Rays and defensive shifts and dress-up trips seemed exotic. But now everyone uses Big Data and wears silly costumes on the road. The numbers have de-emphasized starting pitchers and over-30 players, turning the game into more of a math equation.

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Combined, Lester and Hamels have already willed their left arms through nearly 4,800 big-league innings — plus 28 playoff series — while competing in two of baseball’s most unforgiving cities, earning contracts that guaranteed them $299 million. Together, they will have an outsized influence on the rest of this Cubs season, potentially making 24 of the 57 starts between the July 31 trade deadline and Game 162.

On the same weekend the Philadelphia Phillies celebrated the 10th anniversary of their World Series triumph over Maddon’s Rays, Hamels watched from the top step of the Wrigley Field dugout on Sunday afternoon as Lester labored to finish five innings during a 10-6 loss to the San Diego Padres.

“Not really up to anybody’s expectations,” Lester said. “We’ll figure it out. Little rut night now. Keep grinding.”

In the 91-degree heat and with the winds blowing 12 mph, you could see Lester’s shrinking margin for error when Freddy Galvis lifted a ball that just cleared the left-field basket for a home run. It happened again in the same second inning when Albert Almora Jr. dove at a line drive and didn’t make the spectacular catch in center field, giving Eric Hosmer a two-out, two-run triple and the Padres a 4-0 lead. Franmil Reyes left no doubt in the fourth inning, launching Lester’s 90-mph pitch toward the center-field camera well, ricocheting onto the second-deck roof above the batter’s eye. Estimated distance on Statcast: 477 feet.

Lester now has an 8.53 ERA since the All-Star Game and one quality start in his past eight outings. Really wish the Elias Sports Bureau had a database for games like this, but it sure seems like the Cubs historically don’t play well on themed-getaway days, even for an idea as inspired as “Dress Like Pedro Strop: Gold Chains Required.”

Considering the Cubs needed two one-run wins to split a four-game series at home against the National League’s worst team, there seemed to be way too much focus on the umpires. Anthony Rizzo jawed with home plate umpire Angel Hernandez after watching a 3-2 Kirby Yates fastball zoom by for a game-ending strikeout. Rizzo followed Hernandez up the first-base line and still sounded frustrated by the time reporters flocked to his locker. Rizzo said he appreciated how difficult the job is and stressed how much he respected all umpires and Hernandez in particular, but …

“With that being said, that call was unacceptable,” Rizzo said. “That can’t happen. It can’t happen in the major leagues, at Wrigley Field, at any field.

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“Things like that can’t happen, and it happened all game. And I have to answer questions to you guys: ‘Why can’t you hit? Why are you striking out? Why can’t you hit in the clutch in the ninth inning?’”

Also: Why haven’t the Cubs pitched anywhere close to expectations?

There were enough distractions Sunday, from the uncharacteristic base-running mistakes to a bullpen meltdown to the tilted hats, sunglasses, tight jeans and Adidas track pants that made up the Strop tributes.

But this was supposed to be the year of pure stuff, with the Cubs signing the pitcher with the highest strikeout rate per nine innings (11.04) since 2012 and betting on an escape from Coors Field. In reality, Yu Darvish is on the disabled list, and Tyler Chatwood is in the bullpen, and the shape of the entire pitching staff changes when Mike Montgomery is in the rotation.

“I’ll be accountable for what I do,” Hamels said, “and hopefully give the bullpen a much-needed rest. That’s what I’ve been able to do in my career. And that’s what I hope to continue here.”

It hasn’t quite been the changing-of-the-guard moment Lester envisioned when Kyle Hendricks started Game 1 against the Washington Nationals in last year’s playoffs. It hasn’t been the giant leap the Cubs pictured when José Quintana got away from the trade rumors, American League lineups and the White Sox rebuild. Even in Year 4 of his megadeal, the Cubs are still leaning hard on Lester and the guts he showed while earning two World Series rings with the Boston Red Sox.

Hamels, the 2008 World Series MVP, will make his second start in a Cubs uniform Monday night against the last-place Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. The Cubs aren’t banking on the renaissance Justin Verlander experienced last year while moving from the Detroit Tigers to the Houston Astros. The Cubs hope Hamels will rediscover his changeup, lock in his mechanics and feel refocused and reenergized after trying to block out (4.72 ERA) all the trade rumors surrounding a going-nowhere Texas Rangers team.

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“I love it,” Maddon said. “Been there, done that matters. When I was with groups that had not done it to that point, there was a different believability about it. It’s more believable with people that have done it before. They’re going to rub off, too, Lester and Cole (with their presence). But Kyle’s been in the seventh game of a World Series. Monty’s thrown the last out of a World Series. Q’s looking to get there, so there’s a lot of great experience within the staff.

“That really should drive the engine right there. These five starters need to be prominent for us to really get where we want to get to.”

Of course, maybe the Cubs can win the NL Central race by maximizing their depth, overpowering inferior opponents and flipping the run-prevention script they followed during the 2016 playoff run.

“It happens once in a while, but it’s so hard to get to that last game of the year and win it without the pitching,” Maddon said. “I still have a lot of faith. Of course, Yu is hurt. But otherwise, they’re not. That’s where I take a lot of solace or encouragement in the fact that they’re not injured. If they’re injured, that’s different. But they’re not. And they definitely haven’t thrown too many innings to this point, so I still think there’s a lot to look forward to.”

The Cubs flushed Sunday’s loss so quickly that Strop gave Steve Cishek the Best Dressed Award for The Pedro Strop Road Trip. Strop also walked over to Cishek’s locker to spray him with cologne and complete the aura. Even without the 1-through-5 rotation firing on all cylinders, the Cubs still have the NL’s best record and a one-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the division. We’ll see if that’s sustainable and how long the good times will last.

“It seems to be a topic every time I sit up here,” Lester said in the interview room. “You’re not always going to have all five guys clicking. Some seasons you are, some you aren’t. We got to keep taking our turns and figuring it out as we go. Right now, Q and Kyle have thrown the ball really well. Monty’s done a great job. Hopefully, Cole can pick me up.

“You’re not always going to have all five. But at the end of the day, we got to do a better job. That’s been on me really since the break to do a better job, and I haven’t. Back to the drawing board.”

(Top photo: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

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Patrick Mooney

Patrick Mooney is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. He spent eight seasons covering the Cubs across multiple platforms for NBC Sports Chicago/Comcast SportsNet, beginning in 2010. He has been a frequent contributor to MLB Network, Baseball America, MLB.com and the Chicago Sun-Times News Group. Follow Patrick on Twitter @PJ_Mooney