School and fantasy football have a lot in common, from learning about history and statistics, to social cliques of jocks and nerds (NERDS!!). School and fantasy football also kick off in the fall, even though preparation for both really start in midsummer, as teachers and fantasy writers begin their lesson plans.
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With the draft season upon us, it’s time to look back over the past half-year to determine what NFL offseason items we should be fully aware of before we start filling rosters. The Athletic NFL beat writers share several fantasy nuggets deserving our attention every day, so we draw attention to them here, while also sprinkling in some fantasy stats to keep in mind as your Draft Day approaches. And in the spirit of back to school, we’re presenting this all as an alphabet.
[All Average Draft Position (ADP) references are derived from FantasyFootballCalculator.com’s data for non-PPR leagues.]
A is For Andrew’s Bad Luck
After missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury, Colts QB Andrew Luck is expected to play in NFL preseason games this month. He’s one of the rare players with a mid-round ADP that will almost definitely return either early round value or zero value. T.Y. Hilton’s fantasy owners desperately need good Luck, too.
B is For Buy (Former) Backup Burton
One of the more intriguing offseason signings from a fantasy perspective was the Bears addition of TE Trey Burton, who was formerly Zach Ertz’s backup in Philly. With former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy taking over in Chicago, fantasy owners are giddy with anticipation in hopes of a Monsters-of-the-Midway version of Travis Kelce: a high-volume, pass-catching freak with red-zone dominance. Burton’s eighth-round ADP should give many owners reason to bypass tight end with their early picks.
C is For Cleveland Rocks!
The Browns added plenty of offensive weapons since the end of 2017, including QBs Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield, RBs Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb, and WR Jarvis Landry. Mix them in with holdovers RB Duke Johnson, WR Josh Gordon and TE David Njoku, and this team is suddenly a source of great fantasy possibilities — or a group of the most frustrating usage committees ever. Fantasy owners should pay attention to new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s past, where he has highlighted slot receivers (Landry) and basically under-utilized tight ends (Njoku). Josh Gordon hasn’t joined the team in camp yet, but GM John Dorsey says he’ll be there.
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D is For Denver Wideout Understudies
The Broncos have seen success signing free-agent quarterbacks in the past (see Manning, Peyton), and Case Keenum finally gets paid to be a starter. Fantasy owners might not draft Keenum, but they’re happy to see WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders get someone new to throw them the ball. Dynasty owners should also keep an eye on rookie WRs Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton, as Broncos beat writer Nicki Jhabvala points out. “In the future, the two [rookies] could become the Broncos’ starters and supplant Thomas and Sanders. The veterans each have one year remaining on their contracts, but neither is guaranteed and both players will be over 30.”
E is For Excitement On Hold
Sony Michel, one of the most exciting playmakers in this year’s NFL Draft class, will miss the rest of the preseason after getting a procedure done on his knee last week. That news dampens his ADP quite a bit, as well as his chances to come out of the gate strong as the Patriots’ lead back. Many are skeptical of Michel’s fantasy value because Bill Belichick likes to use an assortment of backs. But this was just the second tailback the Patriots have drafted in Round 1 since Belichick joined New England in 2000 (the other? Laurence Maroney in 2006), and Michel is a special talent — when healthy. He was drafted late in the fourth round of Saturday’s Flex PPR Experts Draft. Pats beat writer Jeff Howe explains the ups and downs of Michel’s training camp before the injury.
“The 31st pick in the draft had rotated with the starters during the first six practices of training camp, and he looked electric on a number of plays, including a long screen catch-and-run and on occasions when he glided through the first two levels of the defense to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. Michel also fumbled once on a careless play, but that’s been the exception of the summer sessions.” — Patriots beat writer, Jeff Howe
F is For First-Round ADP Rookies
The fantasy world is so excited about the arrival of Giants rookie RB Saquon Barkley, they’re going to make him just the second rookie to have a first-round Average Draft Position in the past 18 years (Ezekiel Elliott, 2016). History hasn’t been kind to the first rookie drafted in fantasy drafts, however — the top rookie drafted has finished as the highest scoring rookie just four times in the past 18 NFL seasons.
G is For Giants Fantasy Paradox – Eli Manning
Fantasy drafters prove they have great love for Barkley (1.05 ADP), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2.01 ADP), Evan Engram (6.07 ADP) and even Sterling Shepard (11.07 ADP), but there’s no love for QB Eli Manning, whose 13.12 ADP ranks him as the 21st quarterback coming off the draft board. So the question becomes — how are all of his teammates going to become fantasy viable players if he’s expected to produce like a bottom-third QB? Either he’s greatly undervalued or we’re going to see some Giant disappointments among the other players. (I say the former is more likely.)
H is For Hoping Deshaun Watson Picks Up Where He Left Off
The Houston Texans looked like they finally found an answer under center when Deshaun Watson broke out with one of the greatest starts for a rookie in fantasy history. Through the first six weeks, he was the best fantasy player in the game, and he was on pace to beat Cam Newton as the best fantasy rookie quarterback ever, until he suffered a torn ACL in practice. He’s healthy again, but the fear is that the injury either occurs again — since he’s still going to run — or it will affect his play. You can look at it two ways:
- Avoid the risk because quarterback is so deep and you can pick up great players at other positions where you would have to draft Watson (4.03 ADP). Or,
- You could say, “Hey, QB is so deep — I can pick up a good replacement off waivers if he gets hurt again!”
The latter owner will still be playing catch-up with his other positions, though.
I is For Injuries
Let’s review the other fantasy players returning from torn ACLs, which happens to be a devastating injury — that no longer affects players in their first year back like it once did.
- Bears WR Allen Robinson
- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill
- Eagles QB Carson Wentz
- Patriots WR Julian Edelman
- Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
Other notable injuries from last year that might affect a player’s fantasy value this year include: Cardinals RB David Johnson (broken wrist), Colts QB Andrew Luck (shoulder), Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. (broken ankle), Jets WR Quincy Enunwa (neck), Panthers TE Greg Olsen (broken foot), Seahawks K Sebastian Janikowski and Steelers RB James Conner (torn MCL). Also, Chargers TE Hunter Henry suffered a torn ACL this summer, making him a player to scratch off your cheat sheets until next year.
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J is For Jerick
The 49ers brought in former Vikings RB Jerick McKinnon to be the lead tailback in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which is notable because of McKinnon’s super speed and Shanahan’s history with fast RBs with good hands (see Freeman, Devonta). With a late-second-round ADP, McKinnon won’t be a sleeper for anyone, but he definitely has a chance at producing first-round value in an improved Niners offense, replacing a miscast Carlos Hyde. The smallish McKinnon took a big hit in practice last week – and stayed on his feet.
K is For Kansas City Offense
Despite trading QB Alex Smith to Washington, the Chiefs rank among the NFL teams with the most players being drafted in standard fantasy drafts. There is potential across the board, with RB Kareem Hunt leading the way with first-round ADP. But this offense needs second-year QB Patrick Mahomes to succeed in order for everyone to fulfill their fantasy potential. Kansas City beat writer Nate Taylor points out that the Chiefs want Mahomes to establish a fast tempo with this offense, while executing plays by staying poised under pressure and not committing turnovers. Even when things break down, fantasy owners should know that Mahomes isn’t just a big arm — he can run, too. He scored 22 rushing touchdowns in his last two college seasons, and he’s proving to be quick on his feet in practices, too.
L is For Lions Running Backs
Don’t be scared away from rookie RB Kerryon Johnson just because the Lions have a full backfield, with LeGarrette Blount, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. The rookie has already made some highlight plays in practice with the ball in his hands, but he’s also succeeding in the passing game, where he’s doing well with pass protection and making good catches. Lions beat writer Chris Burke believes Johnson could see 15-plus touches to start the season.
Read about the rest of the offseason, from M to Z, including notes on Matt Ryan, Offensive Coordinators and Zeke!
(Top photo of Luck: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports)